Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 182331
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
731 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017
high pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild
temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will rise
into the 70s this weekend.
Near term /through Thursday/...
630 PM update...
lowered min temps a few degrees slightly below guidance. Last
several days mins have been below guidance while highs have been
above. This due to the dry air mass and ground. Few other
100 PM update...
mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild
through Thursday night.
A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track
across northern New York on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions
in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast
area with the cold front, which is expected to knock
temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
ridging builds back in behind thursday's front bringing dry and
warmer air back into the region. 850 mb temps and 500 mb heights
are already well above normal again by 00z Saturday. The ridge
moves little through the short term, and actually strengthens a
bit ahead of the developing plains trough. So, expect Friday to
both be unseasonably warm and dry.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
little change for Sunday as ridge holds tight ahead of the
approaching wave. Monday will be warm again but clouds should
increase as ridge line moves east and moisture increases from
the south. Slow moving but very strong cold front enters the
area on Tuesday as a surface low races northward across the
eastern lakes. Expect showers to break out from west to east
with colder air moving in by the end of the day.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
730 PM update...
VFR conditions for the next few days. Mainly clear skies into
Thursday afternoon then some mid and high clouds in New York.
River Valley fog at Elm looks unlikely again late tonight.
Boundary level winds at 20 to 30 kts will keep it mixed while
ground had continued to dry out.
Tonight east to south winds at 5 kts or less. Thursday south
winds at 5 to 10 kts shift to southeast.
Thursday night to Sunday...mostly VFR. Possible early morning
restrictions in fog at kelm Saturday and Sunday.
Monday...mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to