Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 222341
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
741 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
high pressure building eastward will cause very cold conditions
overnight yet also somewhat milder temperatures Thursday. A
storm system over the Central Plains will bring a wintry mix
Friday morning and rain showers for the remainder of the
Near term /through Thursday night/...
730 PM update...
forecast on track. Adjusted minimum temperatures a touch lower
for our typical radiational cooling spots where decoupling of
wind will occur, based on trend of latest guidance, but very
little change overall. Though still a few to several degrees
away from records for Syracuse and Avoca, the comparatively
shorter climatology period for Binghamton also leads to easier-
to-achieve daily records as is the case tonight. Daily record
low for March 23 is 9 degrees set in 1959; we may tie or barely
break it tonight for Binghamton.
at 155 PM, the last of the lake effect flurries is drying up at
this time as high pressure builds eastward and winds shift.
Winds will diminish overnight, allowing temperatures to fall
into the single digits, especially east of I-81.
A sizable change in temperature is forecast for Thursday, as
925mb temps rise from -13c to -4c between sunrise and sunset.
Given the day length and strong March sun, mid-30s seems awfully
cold. We edged above super blend guidance again to account for
potential temperature upside.
Warm air surging above the colder surface early Friday will
cause pockets of freezing rain. With surface temperatures likely
rising after midnight, we believe any freezing rain will be
light and short-lived.
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
a complex system and tricky forecast in the short term as warm
air and moisture push up into the area behind a blocking high
over New England. Upper confluent flow helps build the surface
high off the coast keeping the cold air in place. This allows
for the chance of some freezing rain into Friday morning before
a big push later in the day pushes the cold air to the east.
Warm front becomes stationary somewhere over central New York
into Saturday before it stops dropping south as a back door
cold front. This makes the temperature and precipitation
forecast difficult as the exact position of the front and
temperatures that go with it difficult pinpoint. In any case.
Looks like a rain event in the west and south through the
period, with a chance of freezing rain at times to the north and
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
old frontal boundary begins to lift north once again Saturday
night and Sunday as the surface low pushes into the Central
Lakes. This will continue the chance of showers in the area with
slowly rising temperatures. Upper ridge is slow to move so the
result will be a continuing period of light rain into Monday as
the low advances into western New York.
Timing is tricky bit some drying possible late Monday into early
Tuesday before another short wave swings into western New York
late in the day Tuesday.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Winds will be generally
light west-northwest or northwest overnight into Thursday, except Elmira will be
variable. Except Elmira, some gusts of 14-18 knots will still
be possible for most terminals in the first few hours after 00z
this evening. Late in the day Thursday, winds will go light and
variable for all terminals.
Friday...restrictions likely in rain, possibly starting as brief
freezing rain in the morning.
Saturday through Monday...restrictions likely in rain. Some
freezing rain also possible Saturday night ksyr-krme, and
Sunday night for krme.