Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 232340
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
740 PM EDT Tue may 23 2017
high pressure will bring dry weather and a mix of sun and clouds
to New York and PA through Wednesday. Low pressure will spread
showers and cooler weather back to our region for Thursday and
Near term /through Wednesday/...
735 PM update...
high cirrus has thinned somewhat over the last few hours. Enough
radiational cooling is projected to drop temperatures to around
50 degrees overnight, and that should allow fog to form along
the river valleys.
No further changes were made to the existing forecast package.
130 PM update...
high pressure will yield a mostly clear and seasonable night.
Temperatures will drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday morning,
with enough moisture in the boundary layer to support fog or
low stratus formation. We are leaning toward fog at this
juncture due to the light wind flow. Crossover temperatures are
2 to 4 degrees below Wednesday morning's projected minimums, but
that may be misleading as dew points are projected to rise a
few degrees overnight.
Brief ridging in southwest flow ahead of the approaching
stacked system will push 925mb temperatures into the mid-teens
on Wednesday. Surface highs will push into the mid-70s as a
1130 am update...
temperatures are rebounding after a very cool start to the
morning. Our grids depicted temperatures a little too warm
through noon, so we imported new mesoscale data to better fit
today's diurnal curve.
Otherwise, no changes were necessary. A mix of sun and clouds
is forecast with temperatures peaking in the lower to middle-
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
228 PM EDT update...
by Wed night the next storm system will start to impact the
region. An uppr-lvl trough will start to push into the mid-west
and the system's mid-lvl trough will be located over the Ohio
Valley. Showers from it's attendant sfc low will start to move
into western New York/PA after midnight and then engulf the region by
sunrise. It appears that this system will bring a steady rain
showers across the region. A few rumbles of will be possible
during Thursday afternoon. At this time it looks like there will be two
waves of precip, a round early thurs morning then a second batch
thurs evening. This system will have minimal cold air advection with it, thus
sfc temps will not be influenced much by this sfc low and be
able rebound quickly by Friday (into the mid to uppr 60s).
Showers are likely to linger through Thursday night as the sfc low
slowly slides off to the east. Temps are expected to decrease into
the low to mid 50s Thursday night.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
228 PM EDT update...
the uppr low mentioned in the previous discussion will be slow to
depart and will continue to keep a slight chance for precip in the
forecast for Friday and Saturday.
An active weather pattern continues throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. Another potent uppr-lvl low will propagate eastward
across the northern plains starting Sunday, and will result in deep
SW flow aloft over the northeast. SW flow aloft will result in the
chance for precip over the region through the remainder of the
forecast period as multiple waves will move over the region
producing an environment conducive for showers.
Temps during the extended will be at or slightly above the seasonal
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a quiet 24 hour period is forecast with high pressure fixed over
the region. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail. The
exception will be the early morning hours of Wednesday when fog
or low stratus is likely to form at kelm, and possibly at kith
Crossover temperature analysis suggests light fog formation is
likely in the river valleys between 8z and 12z.
Late Wednesday night through Friday night...rain/showers with
associated restrictions likely due to low pressure system.