Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 260005
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
805 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017
the chance for showers and thunderstorms will prevail in the
forecast through Tuesday with cooler than normal temperatures.
Dry weather is expected to briefly return on Wednesday. The
next system to follow will soon move into the are on Thursday
and the chance for precipitation will last through the weekend.
Near term /through Monday/...
745 PM update...
we have had a few strong to marginally severe cells develop
using the heating of the day and with steep lapse rates
extending through the mid levels. Inverted-v noted at bottom of
model soundings, suggesting potential for accelerated downdrafts
which indeed is what has played out. Gust fronts and cool pools
have produced several 35-45 mph gust measurements where the
storms have tracked, as well as a report of roof damage near
Lisle. We have also had a few instances of small hail given the
cool air aloft.
Convection has likely peaked in its intensity, and it will
continue to press east while weakening quickly this evening,
with loss of heating.
some showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across the
area this afternoon. Expect coverage to increase across the area
as we are in an unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates are
present as the airmass is cool aloft. A shortwave trough west of
the region is also aiding in development. Showers/thunderstorms
should decrease in coverage near 00z tonight, as this activity
is mostly diurnally driven.
The trough will move across the region after 00z and push a weak sfc
cold front across New York/PA and push cooler air aloft. Weak lake
enhancement showers will develop in its wake as 850mb temps fall
to near 5/6 deg c. These may linger through the night. Temps
Sunday night/Monday morning are expected to fall into the uppr
40s/ low 50s.
Monday, the trend continues with unsettled weather as yet another
shortwave is expected to swing across the region. Very similar
conditions on Monday as today. Steep lapse rates, Summer sun,
embedded shortwaves, cool air aloft and SW flow aloft will all
result in the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
mostly likely area to see showers will be over The Finger lakes
region. Temps are expected to rise into the mid/upper 60s over
central New York and uppr 60s/low 70s over nepa Monday afternoon. Precip
should end after sunset and temps are expected to fall into the uppr
40s/low 50s by tues morning.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
upper wave and surface front will sweep through the area on
Tuesday triggering showers and thunderstorms. Best chance will
be over the New York counties, nearer the upper support. Ridge at the
surface and aloft builds in for Wednesday bringing drier air.
Not a lot of cold air advection behind tuesday's front so
temperatures on Wednesday will be driven by heating and may be a
few degrees warmer.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
near zonal flow will quickly flatten the upper ridge and push
the surface ridge east on Thursday. Approaching surface low and
upper wave will cause showers to break out over western New York
Thursday afternoon, but should hold off in our forecast area.
Showers and psbl thunderstorms break out Thursday night as the
system pushes in. Boundary looks like it may stall near the area
Friday and be the focus of continued showers and storms into
Late Saturday, fast flow pushes yet another system into the area
enhancing the chance for showers and storms through the end of
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
convection is now east of the New York state terminals although kavp could
see an unrestricted shower through 02z. Overnight, VFR
conditions are forecast with primarily mid level clouds. On
Monday, low level moisture will result in ceiling around 4k feet
then by afternoon upper level trough and diurnal heating will
lead to widespread showers. For now it looks mainly like VFR
Winds becoming light and variable overnight then becoming
westerly around 10 knots Monday morning.
Monday night - Tuesday...mostly VFR, but restrictions are
possible with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday & Friday...restrictions likely in showers and