Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
246 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016
high pressure will remain off the northeast coast tonight giving
the area a mild and rain free night. A cold front will slide
through the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind this front, cooler and
dry weather will last into the weekend as a large Canadian high
pressure system dominates our region.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
skies will remain mostly sunny for the rest of the afternoon with
high pressure dominating. There were a few cumulus clouds forming
here and there under some patchy cirrus but sky cover will average
Then for tonight, short wave trough which was presently over
northern Ontario will move east with the trough axis reaching
James Bay Canada by 12z Wednesday. The front reaches just north
and west of lakes Erie and Ontario by 12z and remains there much of the
day. A west to southwest flow of increasing low- level moisture
will move into central New York and northeast PA by Wednesday afternoon.
Dewpoints are only projected to reach into the low to mid 60s.
But, mid levels are a bit cooler than last couple rounds of
storms with 500 mb temperatures projected to be around -8c. Even
so, model convective available potential energy are projected to remain under 1000 j/kg with 0-6
km bulk shear values around 25 knots at best. Hence there will be
minimal threat for any severe thunderstorms. Models suggest that
there will be a few isolated showers developing late in the
morning in north central New York with scattered thunderstorms mainly
later in the afternoon Wednesday in central New York and far northern
PA. Most of the actvity will remain northwest of northeast PA
before 00z Thursday.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
for Wednesday night, a cold front will cross the region and based
on high resolution models best chances for thunderstorms will be
across northeast PA and south central New York early Wednesday evening
still ahead of the front. The front reaches far western New York by 03z
Thursday and central New York by 06z-09z and to NE PA Thursday morning.
Residual showers will last into the night with this front. For
Thursday morning, northwest flow, cold advection and low-level
moisture running up into the hills of central New York and northeast PA
will lead to isolated showers or sprinkles. By Thursday afternoon
with heating and mixin220 am update...
A cold front will drop from Ontario across New York on Wednesday. 0-6km
bulk shear will jump to 35-40 knots along the New York/PA border by late
in the day, suggesting organization and perhaps some gusty winds
with convection. The issue precluding severe potential appears to
be instability, with very modest mid-level lapse rates forecast.
Once the front passes, much cooler air will filter into the
northeastern United States for the end of the week, typified by
925mb temps between 14c and 17c late Thursday. Dry and cooler will
be the rule, as temperatures will struggle to break out of the
lower 70s on Thursday and Friday. A few readings in the upper 40s
are expected Friday night.G, there will be breaks in the clouds as
drier air mixes into the boundary layer. A large high pressure
system will drop southeast with strong subsidence over our area
Thursday night and Friday with fair and chillier weather. Hence
skies will become mostly clear Thursday night and then partly
cloudy Friday with diurnal cumulus forming.
Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
230 PM Monday update...
Fairly high confidence continues this period, as medium range
guidance remains reasonably consistent, and in good agreement
overall. Little change to previous.
Thursday night still a northwest to north low level flow of cold
air keeping some clouds mainly in central New York under an upper level
trough. This trough shifts east and the winds weaken as a large
area of high pressure moves in from the western Great Lakes. The
high remains in control late Friday through Sunday as upper level
heights build. Temperatures warm from near normal Friday to be
back above normal Sunday and Monday. Monday highs well into the
80s. This upper level ridge and surface high will keep the area
dry and tropical moisture to the southeast along and off the East
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. For the
afternoon through 00z there will be a few cumulus around 3500 to
5000 feet with the afternoon heating. These cumulus clouds will
be under some scattered cirrus. Then for tonight, skies will
begin mainly clear with scattered to broken high clouds arriving
after 06z. Then from 09z-18z Wednesday see mainly scattered to
broken mid to high clouds with broken cumulus around 5000 feet
developing across krme and ksyr terminal before 18z Wednesday.
Winds will be light southwest through the period.
Wednesday afternoon and night...brief restrictions from
showers/storms are possible, but mainly VFR.