Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 141445
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
945 am EST Thu Dec 14 2017
it will remain very cold through the rest of the work week,
with highs only in the upper teens and 20s. A low pressure
system moves out of Pennsylvania this morning, taking with
light snow. Mostly light lake effect snow showers will start
later today and continue through tonight in upstate New York.
Another weak storm will bring light snow late Friday into Friday
Near term /through Friday/...
930 am update... the winter weather advisories have been
dropped, with the synoptic-scale snow now well to our east.
In its wake, multi-bands and some Finger Lakes enhancement have
developed this morning, with a low-level 320-340 flow. We expect
this pattern to hold through about midday, with the flow backing
towards westerly or west-northwest this afternoon. Once this occurs,
multi-bands into the southern tier should diminish, with some
weak bands developing across our northern zones (onondaga,
Madison, and oneida). Overall, some nominal accumulations
(mainly an inch or less) are anticipated for the rest of the day
south of The Finger lakes, then later this afternoon up across
our northern zones.
With low-level cold advection at play once again, we lowered our
high temperatures a bit, with highs in the teens-lower 20s
640 am update... snow is rapidly moving out of the region attm.
Still some light accumulating snow in nepa so will hold off on
dropping the advisory.
230 am update...
widespread light snow is across the entire County Warning Area ahead of a
surface low in southwest PA. Snow will mostly die in place
between 5 and 10 am as the low transfers to the coast. So far
total snow amounts have been light with liquid amounts less than
a tenth of an inch. With the cold temperatures the dendrites
have been small here at the station. One more short wave will
bring a brief shot of heavier snow by 7 am before it quickly
dies. Should be able to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory
earlier than 10 am. In nepa skies clear out today.
On the back side of the low the flow shifts to northwest late this
morning bringing More Lake moisture into our New York counties
especially the Syracuse Metro. Lake effect snow showers will
start then and continue into tonight. Moisture levels are only
5k feet but the dendrite zone is in these low layers. Models are
suggesting a few inches but not likely advisory amounts for the
northern counties. Towards the PA border probably only a
dusting. A low level flow from 300 degrees continues all
afternoon and most of tonight. It finally shifts north late
tonight and out of the County Warning Area by 10 am Friday. With winds of 10 to
15 mph with gusts to 25 blowing and drifting snow will be less
of a problem compared to yesterday.
Temperatures today will rise little with cold air advection.
Mostly upper teens in New York to low and mid 20s in nepa. Winds pick
up again during the day so wind chills are mostly in the single
digits. Tonight temperatures fall to 5 to 15 degrees above zero
with the dry airmass. This may be a tad warm with winds going
light with clear to partly cloudy skies and fresh snow.
Friday the flow shifts to the southwest ahead another weak
system in the form of a weak cold front. Temperatures will rise
into the low and mid 20s. Lake effect leaves the far north
early but another widespread light snow moves in during the late
afternoon. Moisture and lift is limited so snow amounts minor.
Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/...
Friday night into Saturday, a clipper low will track across
nearby eastern Canada into northern New England. Outside of the
lake effect activity will just advertise chance pops across much
of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania as system lacks
significant moisture. Any accumulation will be less than an
inch. Late Friday night steering flow looks favorable for lake
effect snow for a brief period of time across northern Oneida
County and into Steuben County from Lake Erie. By Saturday
morning flow becomes northwest shifting the activity to locations
southeast of Lake Ontario then this activity will weaken during
the afternoon due to a drier airmass. Several inches of snowfall
will be possible in northern Oneida County with around 2 inches
along the New York state thruway from Syracuse to Utica. Highs on Saturday
will range from the middle 20s to around 30.
Saturday night will be dry and cold with high pressure in the
vicinity. Overnight lows will generally range from the 5 to 15
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
the extended period will feature a brief moderation in
temperatures into early next weak as a Flat Ridge develops over
the northeast as the Southeast Ridge strengthens. Sunday will be
dry as surface high pressure shifts east into New England. Highs
on Sunday will range in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Sunday night through Tuesday, weak mid level waves moving
through the Flat Ridge along with weak surface systems will
keep chance pops across the area with precipitation type being
a mix of rain and snow showers depending on boundary layer
temperatures. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will range from the
middle 30s to around 40.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a upper level trough drops into
the Great Lakes region along with a cold frontal passage Tuesday
night. This will bring a round of scattered snow showers to the
area with more significant lake effect snow possible east of
Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/...
620 am update...
Widespread light snow with a surface low in PA is winding down
as the low moves east. Some brief IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs up to
13z at all sites. At avp IFR might last until 14z. MVFR
conditions at bgm/avp until 14z. Lake effect snow starts midday
and continues into tonight. Syr will have the most snow/MVFR
followed by ith/rme. This will be mostly MVFR conditions. At
Elm. And avp skies will become partly cloudy to clear.
Light and variable winds shifting to northwest by 14z then increasing
to 10 with gusts to 20 kts by 16z, then this evening dropping
to 5 to 10 kts.
Thursday night through Monday...still multiple chances for snow
showers/intermittent restrictions, from weak passing systems.