Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kboi 171527
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
927 am MDT Thu Aug 17 2017
Discussion...clear skies under a northwest flow will prevail
today. Cumulus development over the mountains is likely, but no
precipitation is expected. This pattern will continue through
Saturday. No updates to the forecast are needed at this time.
Aviation...VFR. Mostly clear with smoke layers. Surface winds: west-northwest
5-15kt, except 10-20kt with gusts to 25kt east of kmuo toward ktwf
kjer this afternoon, becoming light after sunset. Winds aloft at 10k
ft msl: west-northwest 10-20kt.
short term...today through Friday...the stable Summer pattern
will continue, with mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures.
A low amplitude upper level ridge will build over eastern Oregon and
southwest Idaho today and tonight. On Friday the ridge will be
displaced by dry westerly flow aloft south of an upper level trough
crossing western Canada.
Long term...Friday night through Wednesday...zonal flow will
maintain the dry conditions through Saturday. Moisture in central
Nevada will start to advance northward on Sunday, possibly reaching
the Idaho/Nevada border for a slight chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms south of Twin Falls. Models keep the moisture and
instability near the Nevada border on Monday for a slight chance of
showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Southwesterly flow aloft
between an approaching trough from the Gulf of Alaska and a building
ridge to our east will draw the moisture into southeast Oregon and SW Idaho
for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures through the period will
be slightly above normal.