Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kboi 231548
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
948 am MDT Fri Jun 23 2017
Discussion...clear dry and warm today. Weaker northwest winds as
upper ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. Areas in east-central Oregon could
see smoke layers this afternoon from Burns west of Sumpter and
Unity. Forecast for today is on track so no updates.
Aviation...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds, variable 10kts or
less. Winds aloft to 10k feet msl, north-northwest 10-25 kts.
short term...continued clear and dry through Saturday but with
warming temperatures and less wind. Upper ridge off the northwest
coast moving slowly east. Northwest flow aloft decreasing as the
ridge comes closer.
Long term...Sunday night through Thursday...an upper level low
pressure system will begin to break down the upper level ridge
Sunday night with its passage on Monday. High level moisture
increases ahead of the low late Sunday night for a slight chance of
thunderstorms across southeast Oregon. The low weakens as it is
absorbed into a much stronger low pressure system over western
Canada on Monday. However, there will still be plenty of moisture
and dynamics for afternoon thunderstorm development across the
forecast area. Northwest flow follows the trough passage which will
continue a slight chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of
central Idaho on Tuesday. Models differ on the return of the upper
level ridge with the 00z European model (ecmwf) now keeping zonal flow over the area
through the end of the week. Monday will be the warmest day with
temperatures in the upper 90s in the valleys, dropping back to
normal by the end of the period.