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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Short term...tonight through Thursday...clouds remain widespread
across southeast Oregon and SW Idaho this afternoon, although the shower
coverage has decreased per latest radar images. The showers were
isolated, except scattered in the mountains of SW Idaho.
Southwest flow aloft will continue tonight, although drier air
will begin working into the area from the south with the shower
focus shifting to the north. Dry conditions will envelope all of
southeast Oregon and SW Idaho by Wednesday afternoon as an upper ridge
develops over the intermountain west. Temperatures will be warmer
on Thursday, aided by gusty south-southeast winds, with highs
mainly in the 60s and 70s. The next Pacific front will bring a
chance of rain to southeast Oregon and SW Idaho (well north of boise)
Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler on
Thursday, except little change in the western Magic Valley.

Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday...southwesterly flow,
ahead of a trough off the West Coast, will continue through Sunday
with a series of waves moving through the region. A system off the
California coast will tap into tropical moisture from the south
and move northeast across the Great Basin into southwest Idaho on
Friday, with widespread (heavy at times) precipitation expected
across our area. The precipitation is short lived as southwest
flow redevelops with the system moving east. Models differ on the
positioning of precipitation under the southwest flow aloft, as
the GFS brings precipitation over the region, while the European model (ecmwf)
keeps precipitation west of our area and drier through Sunday. On
Sunday, the system off the West Coast moves inland, bringing a
chance of showers, lower snow levels and cool westerly flow behind
the cold front through Tuesday.


Aviation...generally VFR. Scattered showers tapering off after
06z/Wed. Areas of mountain obscuration. Snow levels above 9kft
mean sea level. Surface winds: SW 10-20kt through sunset except variable 10kt
in Baker, magic and Treasure valleys. Surface winds becoming
south-southeast 5-15kt on Wed afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft
msl: SW 25-35kt, except increasing SW 35-50kt in central Oregon by


Boi watches/warnings/advisories...




long term....ka/ka

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