Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kboi 242030
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
230 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018
Short term...tonight through Friday...mostly clear and warming
through Thursday in eastern Oregon, and through Friday in western
Idaho. On Friday moisture from an incoming Pacific upper low will
reach Harney County with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The moisture may get as far east as the Owyhee
Mountains late in the day. Today's models are slightly slower than
yesterday's bringing the upper low inland. This will allow temps
to stay warm slightly longer than forecast yesterday.
Long term...Friday night through Tuesday. Models have come into
better agreement for the upper low moving in for the weekend.
While the track of the low seems to be much more in sync, the
precipitation details continue to be less aligned between the
models. Both Saturday and Sunday afternoons look active for showers
and possibly thunderstorms, although the GFS is more active on
Saturday than the European model (ecmwf). By Monday, a transition to a more northwest
flow may keep showers going in the mountains, but conditions look
to dry out for Tuesday and beyond. Temperatures are expected to be a
bit above normal on Saturday, then below normal Sunday and Monday,
before rising to near normal by Tuesday.
Aviation...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: generally
south-southeast around 10 kts, with afternoon gust to 20 kts. Winds aloft near
10 kft msl: south-southeast 10-20 kts.