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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
300 PM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Short term...tonight through Friday...scattered showers have
developed across the area this afternoon with partial clearing and
breezy conditions. A slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon, with mild temperatures helping fuel instability and
upper level jet support. Moisture aloft will continue to increase
tonight as a trough off the West Coast slowly approaches the
coast. Mild temperatures are expected tonight, with breezy
conditions. Precipitation will become widespread in coverage on
Thursday morning, especially over the Idaho zones, as a warm front
moves northeast across the region. Snow levels are expected to be
around 7000-8000ft with the bulk of the precipitation. Expect a
brief lull in precipitation between the warm front and the cold
front on Thursday afternoon with gusty southwest to southeast
winds. Showers will develop along the cold front with the
possibility of a thunderstorm during the afternoon in southeast Oregon
and in the evening in SW Idaho. Gusty winds and small hail/graupel
are possible with the frontal passage. Cooler and drier
conditions expected on Friday with snow showers lingering over the
central Idaho mountains as snow levels lower to around 4000ft.

Long term...Friday night through Monday...upper low opens up and
tracks through the western US over the weekend. Conditions will
remain unsettled with afternoon instability focusing daytime
shower development in the mountains. Precipitation becomes more
widespread late Sunday into Monday as the trough axis crosses the
area. Snow levels are down to valley floors over the weekend
though any light accumulations will be limited to above 4k feet
mean sea level. Drier conditions develop by late Monday as the upper low
center moves east of the area. Temperatures through the Monday are
around 10f degrees below normal.

Monday evening through Thursday morning. Sunny skies ahead as
relatively drier, ridging dominates our County Warning Area the next few days.
Expected upper level wind flow from the north-northwest with
embedded pockets of cloudiness which may briefly interrupt the sunny
conditions. No precipitation expected. High temperature starting at
a few degrees below normal gradually warming up to a few degrees
above by Thursday. Lows are expected to remain a few degrees below


Aviation...mostly VFR conditions continue through tonight.
Higher mountain peaks will be obscured by snow with snow levels
rising from 6k to 7k feet mean sea level. Potential for stronger showers or a
thunderstorm through this evening and again Thursday which could
produce graupel. Windy conditions through Thursday with east to
south surface winds of 10-20kts gusting to 30 kts. Southeast Oregon will
see stronger winds Thursday with speeds 20-30 kts and gusts to 40
kts. Winds aloft through 10k feet are southwest 30-50 kts through


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