Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
908 am MDT Sat Aug 27 2016
Discussion...warming through Monday as northwesterly flow aloft
backs to westerly Sunday and southwesterly Monday. In addition,
a short wave ridge off the California coast will move through
Idaho Sunday night further increasing temperatures Monday.
Temps Monday will approach record highs for that date. Current
forecast is on track.
Aviation...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in and around wildfires.
Upper level clouds moving in Saturday afternoon. Surface winds,
southwest-west 5-10 kts, becoming variable Sunday morning.
Winds aloft to 10k feet msl, southwest 10-20 kts.
short term...today through Sunday...westerly flow increases today
in response to a deepening trough in the Gulf of Alaska. This
will act to warm temperatures from yesterday and increase westerly
winds this afternoon. Winds will be strongest across the higher
elevations. The trough continues to deepen off the West Coast on
Sunday backing the flow aloft to the southwest. This keeps the
region dry and temperatures 3-5f degrees above normal.
Long term...Sunday night through Friday...southwesterly flow will
develop ahead of a persistent trough along the British Columbia
coast. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s in the
valley locations on Monday afternoon, or around 10 degrees above
normal. A shortwave will move through the region Tuesday morning
with a slight chance of thunderstorms north of a Baker City to
McCall line. Southwesterly flow will continue through Thursday. The
trough off the West Coast begins to slowly move inland on Friday
bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms. Cooler and unsettled weather is possible next weekend
as the models hint at a pattern change with a taste of fall.
previous short term...dg
previous long term....ka lc