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National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
249 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Upper ridge remains over the area through Monday. Some high clouds
streaming over but mainly thin tonight, then thickening from west
to east on Monday. Expect the clouds to have a slight effect on
temperatures, combining with a little wind on the plains to keep
it mild tonight, and restraining highs a couple degrees on Monday.
With slightly warmer air off the ground, temperatures should
still get to near what we have this afternoon. With the low/mid level
air moistening a little from the west there could be just enough
instability for a few light showers over the mountains in the
late afternoon. More likely they will wait for evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

There is southwesterly flow aloft Monday night, then a weak upper
trough moves across the CWA early Tuesday. West-northwesterly
flow aloft is progged from late Tuesday afternoon well into Wednesday
with an upper ridge to be over Colorado Wednesday night. The QG
Omega fields have weak upward energy for the CWA Monday night into
midday Tuesday, then weak downward motion is in place through
Wednesday night. The boundary layer winds are mostly normal
diurnal trends Monday night and Tuesday. There is northwesterly
downslope progged much of Tuesday night and southeasterlies
Wednesday. Moisture-wise, models seem to have a bit more with the
Monday night/Tuesday upper trough than the last model runs
indicated. The moisture is fairly deep in the mountains and there
is no low level moisture over the downsloping plains. By Tuesday
afternoon there is decent drying. Tuesday night through Wednesday
night look pretty dry. The Qpf fields had some measurable
precipitation Monday night and Tuesday, but it is mostly in the
mountains. Tuesday night through Wednesday night are dry. For pops
will go with 40-70%s in the mountains Monday night into mid day
Tuesday. There will be lesser pops for the foothills and maybe
10%s for the immediate plains. For temperatures, Tuesday's highs
are 1.0-2.5 C colder than Monday's. Wednesday's highs are close
to Tuesday's. For the later day's, Thursday through Sunday, models
have the upper ridge in place for the CWA Thursday into Friday.
The ECMWF hints at a weak upper trough late Friday into Saturday,
the GFS does not. The GFs has a weak upper trough Saturday
afternoon and night, the ECMWF doe snot. Both have an upper ridge
on Sunday. Will keep things dry much of the time, with just a tad
of alpine pops Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures stay warm.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR through Monday. Some uncertainty about wind directions late
tonight into Monday morning as a weak Denver cyclone may form.
Speeds are expected to be less than 10 knots during that time.
Southeast winds should redevelop Monday afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Gimmestad

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