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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1025 am EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Synopsis...

Dry weather prevails today and Saturday with lower humidity,
but it will be hot during both afternoons. A pattern change to
below normal temperatures along with showers at times are
expected Sunday through Tuesday, but the entire period will not
be a washout. A drying trend is likely by the middle of next
week with slowly moderating temperatures.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

1030 am update...

Not too many changes, simply updating trends. Previous discussion
applies.

Previous discussion...

Northwest flow aloft will take hold of the region as weak troughing occurs
across the Hudson Bay dragging lower dewpoints across the region.
This will especially occur across the western half of the region.
Dewpoints across the immediate South Coast may still linger around
70, but should feel some relief compared to the previous two days.
This mixing will help increase gusts to around 15 to 20 mph this
afternoon.

A dry forecast for today. Temperatures will sore back into the 90
to 95 degree range in most locales. In fact because of the due
westerly flow, may actually reach a degree or two higher than
yesterday. Many sites will see 90+ away from the higher terrain.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...

Tonight and Saturday...

Quiet tonight as the flow remains northwest. Some high level clouds
may filter into the region overnight. A bit cooler as temperatures
will drop into the mid to low 50s as radiational cooling occurs.
This is due to light winds and drier conditions. Urban region will
remain warmer with lows around 70.

Weak shortwave will move through the flow early Saturday. Otherwise a
quiet day as dry weather will prevail. In fact, appears that Saturday
is the pick of the weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures
warming once again into the upper 80s to low 90s. Sea breezes across
the immediate coastline may occur. Clouds will begin to filter into
the region from the west in the later half of the day. This is due
to approaching mesoscale convective system cluster that may develop across upstate New York and
transfers to the southeast.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...

Highlights...

* sun/Mon/Tue below normal temps with showers at times
* drying trend by mid week with slowly moderating temperatures

Details...

Saturday night and Sunday...

A very difficult forecast as guidance depicts another mesoscale convective system impacting
a part of the northeast and/or mid Atlantic states Sat night into
sun. Guidance is all over the place in regards to its track and
timing. In this case, will side with the bulk of the mesoscale convective system tracking
southwest of our region, where the greater instability will reside.
Based on that we are not expecting severe weather and probably not
even any thunder. However, we may see some showers develop north of
the main complex and impact our region. Confidence on that is
uncertain, but Worth carrying chance pops.

As for high temps Sunday, it will be cooler than recent days given
easterly flow and perhaps lots of clouds even if we escape most of
the showers. Highs should mainly be in the 70s, but its possible a
few locations reach the lower 80s if there are some peeks of sun.

Monday and Tuesday...

Anomalous closed upper level low across the Canadian Maritimes will
send a piece of strong shortwave energy southward. This will carve
out a northeast trough resulting in below normal high temps along
with showers at times. While the entire period will not be a
washout, onshore flow and lots of clouds will likely hold highs in
the 70s. In fact, some locations may struggle to break 70 on one of
those days.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper trough begins to lift northeast. Still plenty of
uncertainty this far out, but current guidance indicates a drying
trend by the middle of next week. Temps should gradually moderate,
but they still probably will remain a bit below normal with highs
well up into the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...

Forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday/...high confidence.

Today and tonight...
VFR. West/SW winds, gusts up to 20 kts especially across the high
terrain and over the southeast coastal plain. Diminishing overnight
under partly cloudy conditions, could see a few hours of MVFR-
IFR patchy ground fog in typically prone locations overnight.

Saturday...
VFR. Low risk of rain showers across CT late in the day.

Kbos terminal...low confidence concerning a sea-breeze. One may
sneak immediately onshore over the terminal, but think the west
flow will prevail most of today.

Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/...

Saturday night through Tuesday...low confidence. Periods of low
clouds, showers, and fog patches will impact the region at times.
However, also expect periods of VFR conditions thrown into the mix.
Timing of these conditions though is highly uncertain, but guidance
indicates Mon and Tue have the best chance of featuring the lower
cigs/vsbys.

&&

Marine...

Forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday/...

Today and tonight...
west/northwest winds becoming west/SW today shifting back west/northwest overnight.
Gusts up to 20 kts forecast especially over the S/southeast waters.
Seas holding below 4 feet.

Saturday...
winds returning SW again. Perhaps a sea-breeze along the East Shore
of Massachusetts if they remain light enough. Seas below 4 feet.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/...

Saturday night through Tuesday...moderate confidence. A couple
waves of low pressure will likely track south of the waters over
this time frame. The result will be persistent northeast winds
which should gust to 20 knots at times. Timing uncertain, but
marginal small craft seas may impact our outer waters. Some showers
and fog patches will also impact mariners at times.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...

CT...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Frank/dunten

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