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fxus61 kbox 242023 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
423 PM EDT sun Sep 24 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure covering much of the eastern USA will bring warm and
dry weather to southern New England the first part of this week.
Cold front approaches southern New England during Wednesday
afternoon and triggers scattered showers. Cold front slowly moves
through southern New England on Thursday and offshore Thursday
night. Maria will bring swells to the South Coast, but the center is
expected to pass well southeast of New England late this week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
high pres brings light winds and mostly clear skies. However,
stratus deck lurking southeast of new eng is expected to overspread the
cape and islands this evening with light onshore flow. The low
clouds and patchy fog may expand along the South Coast but lower
confidence on areal extent of stratus and fog tonight.
Otherwise, some patchy valley fog may develop overnight in the
normally prone locations in the CT valley. Min temps mostly in
the low/mid 60s.

&&

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
Monday...
strong subtropical ridge remains in control across new eng with
sunshine and unseasonably warm conditions. However, stratus may
linger through the morning across cape/islands. Similar
850/925 mb temps suggest temps close to today with upper 80s to
around 90 interior but cooler along the immediate coast where
sea breezes are likely.

Monday night...
as Maria lifts north across southeast US waters, higher precipitable water air and
ki values will approach southern New England from the east along with increasing
elevated instability. This will lead to a risk of showers across
southeast new eng and have chc pops for cape/islands. Otherwise, the
guidance is indicating stratus and fog may be more expansive
across southern New England as higher dewpoints move in. Low temps will be in the
60s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
highlights...

* very warm temperatures persist into Wednesday
* scattered showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night
* Maria will bring swells to the South Coast but will sharply
recurve out to sea southeast of New England late in the week

A weakening high pressure ridge should linger across southern
New England Tuesday into the first part of Wednesday. Light flow
will likely mean seabreezes, with lower temperatures along the
immediate coast.

A surface cold front should cross our region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Given the Summer-like warmth ahead of this
front, some isolated thunderstorms are not out of the question.
The increasing southwest flow ahead of this cold front might
also be strong enough to tap into some tropical moisture from
Maria. If this moisture is available, it could lead to locally
heavy downpours. Some question as to how quickly this cold front
will move offshore, particularly once it reaches the coastal
plain of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.

High pressure should build in from the west Friday into
Saturday. Besides a chance of some lingering showers Friday
morning across the cape and islands, much of this period will be
dry. It will also be noticeably cooler, with below normal
temperatures expected.

&&

Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday night/...

Through 00z...VFR, but areas of IFR stratus and patchy fog
redeveloping at ack and possibly portions of Cape Cod.

Tonight...expect stratus and fog across cape/islands which may
expand along the South Coast during the night but confidence is
lower here. VFR elsewhere, except for patchy fog upper CT
valley.

Monday...high confidence. VFR, but areas of IFR stratus and
patchy fog may linger over cape and islands into the afternoon.
Uncertain timing of improving conditions over the Cape.

Monday night. Moderate confidence. IFR stratus and patchy fog
may become more expansive across southern New England but areal extent
uncertain.

Kbos taf...high confidence. Sea breeze redevelops by 15z Mon.

Kbdl taf...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Confidence...high.

Tuesday...mostly VFR except for patchy early morning fog.

Wednesday...mostly VFR but scattered MVFR ceilings/visibilities
in showers, main during the afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR ceilings and areas of
IFR ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers and fog.

Friday...mainly VFR. Lingering MVFR in scattered showers across
the cape and islands in the morning.

&&

Marine...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday night/...high confidence.

Winds will remain light through Mon night with high pres over
the waters. However, increasing long period south swell from
Hurricane Maria will be moving into the waters with potential
for 7 to 8 ft seas over southern waters Mon/min night. Small Craft Advisory for
seas will continue. In addition, areas of fog will result in
poor vsbys at times, especially south and east of Cape Cod.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...confidence...high

Relatively light winds are expected through this period. However,
swells from Maria will propagate into the southern coastal waters,
beginning late Sunday night or Monday. Small craft advisories will
likely need to be extended due to rough seas for the waters south of
the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coast for all of this period.

The swells from Maria will likely produce another round of high surf
and dangerous rip currents.

Outlook...Monday night through Friday

Confidence...high

Relatively light winds are expected through Friday. However,
swells from Maria will impact the south coastal marine zones,
and small craft advisories will likely be needed due to rough
seas for much of this week.

The swells from Maria will likely produce continuing high surf and
dangerous rip currents, probably lasting most of this week.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
long period swell from Hurricane Maria will be moving north
into the south coastal waters. Wnawave guidance indicating
increasing swell to 7-8 ft with a period of 15 seconds moving
into the south coastal waters Mon into Mon night and up to 9 ft
on Tuesday. This will result in increasing high surf and
dangerous rip currents. High surf advisory will continue and
will extend through Tue, and it is likely the high surf will
continue through the week even as Maria likely recurves out to
sea well southeast of New England.

&&

Climate...
record high today was broken at bdl with a temp of 90 degrees.

Best chance for record high temps will be today and Monday, when
records are 85-90. Records Jump Up Tuesday to 89-95, while less
mixing will lead to lower Max temps. So the chance for new records
diminishes Tuesday. The current record Max temps for the three days
are:

Bos 90/1959 89/1926 95/1881
orh 85/2010 85/1970 91/1930
bdl 89/1959 90/2007 93/2007
pvd 87/1959 89/1920 89/2007

Also, dew points in the 60s, while high for this time of year,
are not unprecedented. The daily extreme high values for dew
points are still in the low 70s, except for a couple of 68 and
69 values at Worcester.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
Massachusetts...high surf advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for maz020-022>024.
Rhode Island...high surf advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for riz006>008.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 PM this evening
to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for anz235-237.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday
for anz254>256.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Belk/kjc
near term...kjc
short term...kjc
long term...Belk

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