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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1059 am EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure offshore will provide mild temperatures today but
also increasing humidity. A slow moving cold front will bring
rounds of heavy rain Tuesday into Wednesday with a period of
strong to damaging wind gusts possible. A few lingering showers
are possible Thursday, but the trend towards drier, less humid
and more seasonable temperatures are expected Thursday into
Friday. Above normal temperatures may return by this weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

1025 am update...

Patchy dense fog lingers across portions of the region,
though not as organized as it was earlier this morning so
allowed the dense fog advisory to expire. Low clouds also linger
across most of the interior, though noting breaks in the clouds
across portions of the CT valley and across coastal southeast Rhode Island and S
mass including Cape Cod and the islands on the latest GOES-16
(prelim, non-operational) satellite imagery. Seems the light
wind field across eastern areas holding from the se, which
appears to keep the low visibility going into early this
afternoon before briefly lifting through the remainder of the
day.

Still some question as to whether any scattered showers will
develop across portions of the CT valley later this afternoon.
Noting some differences in model solutions for later this
afternoon/evening as to whether there will be enough low level
lift and instability for any showers to develop there. Have kept
slight chance pops mainly for the east slopes of the Berkshires
after 18z or so, which might slip toward the
Springfield/Hartford areas later today.

As the winds slowly veer to S during the remainder of the day,
will see temps slowly rise even with the cloud cover. Have kept
Max temps in the mid-upper 60s across the interior higher
terrain to the lower 70s elsewhere.

Have updated forecast to incorporate current trends through the
remainder of the day.

Previous discussion...

As the visibility slowly improves, lower clouds will linger a
while longer. This will mean somewhat lower Max temperatures,
but still well above normal for mid/late October.

Much of today should remain dry, but cannot completely dismiss
the possibility of a few showers reaching western Massachusetts and
portions of CT late today.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
precipitable water increases tonight into Tuesday. Widespread
showers arrive along a cold front late tonight into Tuesday,
especially from Worcester County west. Strong winds of 35-40 kt
jet just off the deck. Gusty winds will be more likely within
areas of heavier rainfall, especially Tuesday.

Low temperatures tonight should be close to our normal high
temperatures, with some increase in temperatures Tuesday from
the strong low level warm advection.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
highlights...

* period of strong to damaging wind gusts possible Tue into Wed

* heavy rain will result in an urban/street flooding threat
Tue-Wed along with low risk of isolated flash flood threat

* less humid & more seasonable weather finally return Thu/Fri

Tue night and Wed...

Synoptic overview...

Slow moving cold front becomes parallel to upper flow as mid
level trough takes on negative tilt. This front will be
associated with an impressive warm conveyor belt up the eastern
Seaboard containing subtropical moisture with pwats near the
2.00 inch mark, or nearly 3 std deviations above normal. Also
embedded within this warm conveyor belt is very strong wind
anomalies with 925 mb wind speeds of 55-65 kts, +4 std
deviations above climo! This low level jet builds a low level
thermal anomaly with nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates above
this warm anomaly. This very strong low level jet also advects
surface dew pts into the mid and upper 60s across southern New
England late Tue into early Wed, generating MUCAPES of 300-500
j/kg, very impressive for late Oct.

Wind risk...

As mentioned above low level jet peaks at about 55-65 kt late
Tue into early Wed. Heavier showers (via precip drag) and
especially potential low top fine line (very strong frontal
convergence coupled with marginal instability) across western
Massachusetts/CT will increase the risk for stronger winds aloft mixing to
the surface. Given leaves remain on most trees, this will
exacerbate the risk for downed limbs or even some trees with
localized power outages. Wind headlines will likely be needed as
we draw closer to the event.

Heavy rain...

Subtropical moisture streams up the eastern Seaboard with pwats
nearing 2 inches, +4 std deviations from climo for about 24-30
hrs! This duration coupled with strong frontal forcing and
marginal instability should be sufficient for periods of heavy
showers with isolated thunder possible. Much of the global
guidance offering a widespread 1-2" rainfall amounts with
localized 3-5" possible especially eastern New York into western Massachusetts/CT
given greater risk of low top fine line.

Thu...

Global guidance including ensembles suggest dry slot moves
across the area, thus a drying trend develops. However cold pool
aloft combined with cyclonic low may result in isolated diurnal
showers especially across the high terrain. Otherwise mainly
dry weather is expected. Turning less humid but only seasonably
cool.

Fri through the weekend...

Looks like a period of short wave ridging between departing
trough and next trough upstream arriving here Sunday or early
next week. Ensembles suggest Post frontal airmass Fri will be
close to seasonably normal and continuing into Sat along with
mainly dry weather. Ensembles also advertising long wave eastern
Seaboard trough reloads with new jet energy around Sunday with
subtropical connection given high amplitude trough.

&&

Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/....

Through this afternoon...moderate confidence mainly in timing of
any showers developing over western areas during the afternoon.
Some lingering MVFR-IFR conditions across portions of the region
but should become mainly VFR by around 18z or so. However, MVFR
ceilings may return across western Massachusetts/north central CT during the late
afternoon. May see isolated showers move into western areas
after 18z-20z. S winds increase to around 10 kt.

Tonight...moderate confidence. Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
across north central and western areas this evening in scattered
showers and patchy fog. VFR conditions to start across S central
and eastern areas, but ceilings lower to MVFR to local IFR after
midnight as showers slowly move east. Patchy fog will lower visibilities
to MVFR to local IFR as well. S winds gusting to 20-25 kt along
S coastal areas after midnight.

Tuesday...high confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing. Mainly IFR with occasional MVFR in low ceilings rain/fog. Some
occasional ts also possible with heavy rain at times. Winds gust
20-30 kt most of the region out of the S-southeast with a few gusts
30-40 kt mainly southeast MA/cape/islands. Cannot rule out stronger
gusts everywhere in heavier rainfall/thunderstorms. Areas of
low level wind shear likely, especially after 15z.

Kbos terminal...moderate confidence in taf due to timing issues
with ceiling improvement later this morning. Possible IFR could
linger longer than current forecast.

Kbdl terminal...moderate confidence in taf. Mainly VFR. May see
brief MVFR-IFR visibilities in patchy fog through 14z or so but should
improve by morning push.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

Tuesday night: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Shra, chance tsra, patchy br.
Wednesday: mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Shra, chance tsra, patchy br.
Wednesday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance rain showers.
Thursday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Thursday night through friday:vfr.

&&

Marine...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...

Relatively light winds and seas continue across the waters into
this evening. Increasing south winds ahead of a cold front will
also mean building seas tonight into Tuesday, especially across
the southern coastal waters. Moderate risk for gale force gusts
Tuesday across most of the waters.

Lingering pockets of poor visibility linger off east coastal mass,
but should improve during the early to mid afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday: low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Rain showers.
Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.
Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...gale watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
anz231>235-237-255-256.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for anz230-
251.
Gale watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
anz236.
Gale watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for anz250-254.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Belk/nocera
near term...nocera/evt

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