Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
530 PM CST sun Jan 22 2017
Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.
Aviation...full VFR is expected through the next 24 hours.
Diminishing and veering winds are forecast for a vast majority
of the taf period as surface high pressure moves off towards
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CST sun Jan 22 2017/
Short term (tonight through Monday night): north northwest winds
will weaken through the night as a storm system over the lower
miss. Valley shifts east. Both the Wind Advisory and the red flag
warning are set to expire by the tonight period. It will be clear
and dry tonight with low temperatures mainly in the 40s except for
lower 50s near the coast. Monday will be a "chamber of commerce"
day, with light winds and sunny skies, though with high
temperatures slightly above normal in the mid 70s to near 80.
Winds will come around to light south southeast during the day as
a storm system deepens in the Central High plains. Low
temperatures Monday night will be mainly in the 50s with a few
lower 60s near the coast. Skies will again be clear but dew points
will recover into the 40s and 50s.
Long term (tuesday through sunday): ridge aloft and surface high
pressure centered over the Gulf will be in place to start the
long term forecast period on Tuesday. Surface to 85mb flow will be
southeast to south-southwest...however moisture is still rather lacking. Winds will
be quite breezy thanks to the pressure gradient between the the
high pressure to the east and low pressure developing over West
Texas/interior Mexico. Temperatures will rise rabidly on Tuesday
given warm 850mb temps...combined with dry air and elevated winds
mixing down. Readings will be in the mid to upper 80s...with lower
90s possible across the western two-thirds of the County Warning Area. In
fact...we are looking once again for possible record-breaking
highs on Tuesday.
By Wednesday...the low pressure inland moves quickly south and
east of the region as a trailing cold front from a northern plains
storm system comes sweeping through. No rain is expected at this
time over land...however a few far offshore showers may occur. The
front will bring gusty northwest winds and another round of dry air.
Since we are starting out fairly dry to begin...with this
additional dry air and higher winds may lead to fire weather
concerns once again. However...at this time...it seems as though
that this will generally limited to portions of the western
The front will bring some relief from the overly warm temperatures
of late...with readings generally back to near or even a touch
below normal for Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves across
Texas and the northern Gulf coastline. This will bring the return
of onshore flow will to the region on Friday with small rain
chances returning. Increased rain chances and clouds cover can be
expected for the weekend as deep layer moisture returns. Long term
models are still unresolved and have not made any wholesale
adjustments as there is still much uncertainty.
Now through Monday night: winds recently dropped to sub gale at
buoy 020 with wave heights checking in at around 9 feet. Will be
looking to drop back to Small Craft Advisory conditions for the
marine areas for the tonight period. Wave heights may remain at
the seven feet criterion offshore overnight, but all advisories
should be gone by the Monday day period. Light north winds will
switch to south on Monday, increasing to moderate along with wave
heights Monday night as a storm system deepens in the Central High
Tuesday through friday: surface high pressure centered over the
Gulf will interact with low pressure across West Texas/interior
Mexico. This will bring moderate to strong S winds across the
Lower Texas coastal waters on Tuesday into early Wednesday
morning...with scas likely needed for winds. Marine conditions
will improve briefly...before our next cold front sweeps through
the coastal water Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring gusty
northwest winds and building seas...with additional scas likely. Surface
high pressure will build into Texas and move along the southern
Gulf states. Light to moderate east winds and low to moderate seas
Texas...red flag warning until 6 PM CST this evening for txz248>257.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz248>257.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 PM CST this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for gmz150-155-