Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 201111
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
711 am EDT Tue Mar 20 2018
high pressure remains well entrenched across the north country.
Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and
dry weather over the north country through midweek. A coastal
low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina
coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system
still look to be to our south and east, however we can't rule
out some light precipitation over southern areas of Vermont
late Wednesday into Thursday.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 708 am EDT Tuesday...no changes were needed this morning
as the forecast remains on track. Another cold start today with
temperatures in the single digits most spots, but plenty of
sunshine should make for a rather decent day. Have a great one!
Previous discussion...high pressure will remain lodged across
the north country today, resulting in another day of sunshine
and cool temperatures. Winds will be fairly light and with highs
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, it should be an overall pleasant
For tonight and Wednesday...low pressure will develop off the mid
Atlantic coast and slide east-northeast. Precipitation associated
with this system will spread north and east as well, moving into
southern New England during the day Wednesday. The high pressure
will remain wedged over our region, keeping the low shunted to the
south and east of the benchmark. Note that the NAM and sref are more
aggressive with bringing the precip shield north, while the GFS,
ECMWF, and CMC pretty much keep our forecast area dry. Current
thinking is to lean closer to the drier solutions as precip will
likely have a hard time making much northward progress given the dry
airmass that currently resides across the north country. However,
don't want to totally discount the higher-res models, so have gone
with a model blend. This results in a chance of snow late Wednesday
afternoon for areas along south of a Quechee to Rutland line. Little
to no daytime snow accumulation is expected. After morning lows
mainly in the 5-15 degree range, wednesday's highs will top out in
the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday/...
as of 352 am EDT Tuesday...on Wednesday night coastal low
pressure system will be tracking just outside the benchmark off
the coast of Cape Cod. All of the stronger forcing and deeper
moisture will be southeast of our region. Do expected some light
snow for Windsor County Wednesday night, have mentioned up to
about two inches of snowfall. On Thursday as the low lifts north
and eastward, will have some wrap around light snow showers in
the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Accumulations will be light.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday night with
plenty of clouds across the region, then cooler than seasonal
normals on Thursday.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 352 am EDT Tuesday...no big changes for the long term
portion of the forecast from Thursday night through Tuesday.
Still mainly just an upper trough over the area, mainly
resulting in a bunch of clouds and some colder than normal
temperatures continuing. Will have occasional bits of shortwave
energy pass through the progressive flow and a few mountain snow
showers will be possible. Temperatures will start out colder
than seasonal normals, trending back towards normal headed into
Aviation /11z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period as high pressure remains over the area. Little
in the way of any cloud cover will exist as a result and winds
will generally be under 10 knots through tonight. High clouds
will begin to move in across southern Vermont late tonight as
low pressure moves off the East Coast, but no precipitation is
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
Friday: mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance shsn.
Friday night: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. No sig weather.
Saturday: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance