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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
737 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will bring mostly
sunny skies to the region today. The high will shift south of
our region tonight and stall over the mid-Atlantic coastline
through the end of the week. This will provide an extended
period of dry weather and above normal temperatures. The next
chance of rain is forecast next Monday with a cold front.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure is centered along the Ohio Valley early this morning
with ridging extended northeast across the eastern Great Lakes.
After some morning frost and valley fog, expect a mostly sunny
day across the region.

There are a some lower clouds over Lake Erie this morning, but
these are low topped without any accompanying radar returns in
an overall dry environment. Expect this to mix out quickly with
morning sunshine. A thin band of higher clouds may try to work
its way SW toward the region later this am, but this too will
move into an increasingly dry environment. A surface gradient
between the high pressure and a surface low moving eastward
across northern Ontario/Quebec may produce some gusty winds this
afternoon, but otherwise expect an uneventful day in terms of
weather with near normal highs (mid 50s to lower 60s.)

Tonight, the center of the surface high shifts over Virginia with
ridging continuing to extend north across New York state. Expect
mainly clear skies but winds will remain a bit breezy most likely
preventing much of any fog development. The winds and dewpoints a
bit higher than tonight should keep overnight lows limited to the
40s with perhaps 50 near the Lake Shores.

&&

Short term /Wednesday through Friday night/...
this period will be characterized by fair dry weather...as the
center of an expansive surface high will oscillate back and forth
between the mid Atlantic states and the Ohio Valley. The only
potential fly in the ointment during this time frame will be a dry
cool frontal passage late Thursday-Thursday evening...but even this
will barely be noticeable with nothing more than a 3-6 hour window
of increased cloud coverage and a pause in our day to day warming
trend.

Temperatures during this three day period will average 5 to 10
degrees above normal...with the greatest departures coming by day
when afternoon Mercury readings will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
model guidance remains in excellent agreement, with high forecast
confidence in a dry pattern with above normal temperatures through
next weekend. This will be due to broad upper level ridge along the
eastern Seaboard and an elongated area of high pressure extending
from eastern Canada to the eastern Continental U.S.. forecast high temperatures
hedge warmer than consensus guidance given the high forecast
confidence with highs averaging in the mid to upper 60s Friday and
warming into the 70s over the weekend. The combination of dry
weather and above normal temperatures will provide excellent weather
for the weekend.

This ridge will finally start to break down Sunday night, with a
weak cold front expected to cross the region on Monday. This will
bring a chance of showers, and slightly cooler weather going into
next week.

&&

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
expect VFR conditions except for local valley fog this am, with
VFR conditions areawide for the remainder of the day. A few mid
and high clouds will move across the region, but overall clear to
scattered conditions are expected with high pressure centered over
the Ohio Valley.

A tight pressure gradient will also bring gusty winds to
25-30kts by this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy tonight
with clear skies. The winds should prevent much fog development
in the western southern tier late tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...VFR except for local IFR in River
Valley fog each late night and early morning.

&&

Marine...
high pressure is in place this morning, but expect southwest
winds to develop shortly after daybreak as a pressure gradient
tightens over the eastern Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be found for Lake Erie and Ontario along with
the upper Niagara River and Saint Lawrence River. Advisories for
the rivers will only last through the daylight hours but over
the lakes into tonight.

Another period of light winds/waves expected Wednesday as high
pressure shifts across the mid-Atlantic region then the pressure
gradient over the eastern lakes tightens up again Thursday with the
approach of a cold front.

&&

Buf watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
for lez020.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am EDT
Wednesday for lez040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am
EDT Wednesday for loz043.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 am EDT
Wednesday for loz042.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am EDT
Wednesday for loz044-045.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this
evening for slz022-024.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Smith/zaff
near term...Smith/zaff

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