Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
1106 am EDT Tue Mar 20 2018
high pressure centered over northern Ontario with a ridge extending
down through the Great Lakes will maintain dry and chilly weather
through the end of the week. Temperatures will begin to rise by
early next week as the deep trough over the northeast begins to move
off the East Coast.
Near term /through tonight/...
visible satellite imagery late this morning is showing the northern
edge of high/thin cirrus extending into the New York southern tier. This
cloud cover is associated with the winter storm moving through the
mid-Atlantic states. On the mesoscale, stiff easterly flow of 15 to
25 mph across western and central New York is driving lake effect clouds
over the Southwest Lake Ontario shoreline. Otherwise, mainly sunny
skies will prevail today filtered through the high/thin clouds
Canadian surface high pressure will remain centered over northern
Ontario through tonight, with a ridge extending down into the Great
Lakes. This will keep the winter storm at Bay. The northern edge of
light snow associated with the storm will make its closest pass to
our region later tonight, but model consensus keeps this south of
the New York/PA border with dry low level northeast flow producing plenty
of sub-cloud evaporation.
High temperatures will run close to 10 degrees below average this
afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Lows
tonight will be held up to some extent by increased cloud cover and
a northeast breeze. Expect lows in the mid 20s on the lake plains of
western New York and around 20 in the southern tier valleys, with low to
mid teens for the north country. The stiff easterly winds will
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
for mid-week, a low pressure system will pass south and then east of
the region while a Canadian high pressure system remains anchored
south of James Bay. This configuration will keep dry and cool
weather in place, with a stiff northeast wind Wednesday becoming
northwest Thursday as the low tracks off the New England coast.
While the precipitation shield from the low pressure system may
approach the New York/PA border Wednesday, the northeast flow of dry air
from the high pressure system will limit impacts across our region
to a mid and high level broken to overcast cloud deck Wednesday.
This will be followed some some increasing low-level moisture and
colder temperatures supportive of low-level lake enhanced cloudiness
south of Lake Ontario Thursday. Moisture should be limited enough to
keep the forecast mainly dry through the day Thursday, with only the
possibility of a few flurries south of Lake Ontario. High
temperatures will remain the 30s each day, with nightly lows in the
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
a strong area of Canadian high pressure will expand southward across
the Great Lakes region Friday through the weekend and into the start
of next week. Meanwhile another low pressure system will develop in
the Lee of The Rockies, with the model consensus now solidly keeping
storm south of the region Saturday and Sunday before tracking off
the Atlantic coast. Thus, expect mainly dry and cool conditions to
persist across the region with highs in the 30s and nightly lows in
the 20s, with the potential for increasing sunshine through the
Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
surface high pressure will remain in place across northern Ontario
and James Bay through tonight, with a ridge extending down into the
Great Lakes. This will provide dry weather and VFR high clouds
streaming north across our region from a winter storm over the mid-
Atlantic region. Low level northeast flow has allowed for some lake
effect clouds to develop over the western end of Lake Ontario today
but should remain north of kiag. Wind backing slightly toward the
north tonight may shift the lake clouds south toward kiag and
perhaps develop some near kroc.
Wednesday through Saturday...mainly VFR.
low pressure across the central and southern Appalachians will
strengthen off the mid Atlantic coast later today. This ocean
low will then move slowly northeast and offshore of the mid
Atlantic and New England Wednesday through Thursday. The
pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over
northern Ontario will produce moderate northeast winds on Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie, leading to a several day period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions.
Additionally, a significant portion of Lake Erie from Ripley to the
Buffalo Harbor remains ice covered. With strengthening northeasterly
flow this ice pack is shifting and breaking apart which is a hazard
to anyone that might try to venture out onto the ice.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for lez020-040-
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for