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fxus65 kbyz 201506 
afdbyz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
906 am MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Update...

No update this morning for inherited forecast. Aag

&&

Short term...valid for tdy and Sat...

Cut-off upper low over The Four Corners area will shift slowly
east today. Our County Warning Area is on the fringe of this systems affects.
Model proggs have trended the possibility of precipitation in our
southern zones downward. Thus, we have reduced pop's somewhat for
the big horns and southeast corner of Montana today and this evening.
This system will push some cloud cover into the southeast third of the
County Warning Area which will limit afternoon highs, but otherwise impacts will
be minimal. Look for seasonal temperatures today.

Saturday still looks to be a rather warm day as we see some pre-
frontal warming ahead of a fast moving cold front set to sweep
across our region Saturday evening. The front is being dragged
across our area by an upper trough moving across central Canada.
As such, it does not appear to have much upper support for lift
over our region, nor does it appear to have much moisture
associated with it. For now, we will keep any pop's along the
higher terrain and foothills of the beartooths and pryors/big
horns Saturday night. Brisk gusty northwest winds are expected
for a few hours with the frontal passage for most locations. Bt

Long term...valid for sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

The long term period will begin mostly quiet with westerly flow
prevailing in the mid-levels over the region on Sunday. High
temperatures will mainly be in the upper 50s and low 60s. The next
weather disturbance moves into the region Monday morning with
rain and mountain snow showers overspreading the region through
the day. The quick movement of this system will keep precipitation
amounts lower, but still expect 0.25 to 0.50 inches of
precipitation across the region, with locally higher amounts
possible in the mountains. This system won't be bringing much cold
air with it so many of the lower elevations won't see much, if
any, accumulating snowfall Monday into Monday night. Most
locations that see snow will be in the mountains and immediate
mountain foothills along the beartooth and Bighorn Mountains but
can't rule out some snow mixing in Monday, but accumulations will
be difficult. While snow accumulations will be light, a cold rain
through much of Monday will still present risks to any ongoing
calving operations with high temperatures generally in the mid to
upper 40s. The system moves out of the region by Tuesday morning
but expect cool conditions in the mid to upper 50s in the
afternoon.

Warmer conditions move in for the remainder of the week with
mostly dry conditions expected and temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s. Dobbs
&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period. A few
showers with local MVFR conditions are possible along and south of
a kshr to Broadus to Ekalaka line later this afternoon into early
this evening. Chambers



&&

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tdy Sat sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
bil 062 037/071 039/060 036/049 030/057 035/066 036/065
0/u 00/u 10/b 47/west 21/u 11/b 11/u
lvm 061 032/067 035/061 036/047 025/056 031/064 033/063
0/u 00/north 11/b 56/west 21/u 11/b 21/u
hdn 063 035/072 037/063 034/051 029/058 032/068 035/065
1/b 10/u 10/b 36/west 31/u 11/b 11/u
mls 062 036/067 039/060 035/050 030/056 035/066 035/064
0/b 00/u 00/b 27/west 40/u 00/u 11/u
4bq 058 035/064 038/059 036/051 031/054 034/064 034/063
2/west 20/u 00/b 17/west 61/b 00/u 11/u
bhk 056 035/062 037/058 036/048 030/052 032/062 036/060
1/b 10/b 00/b 17/west 60/b 00/u 10/u
shr 056 033/067 035/063 034/051 028/056 030/066 033/063
2/west 20/u 10/u 27/west 41/u 11/b 22/west

&&

Byz watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...none.
Wyoming...none.

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