Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 241112
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
612 am EST Fri Feb 24 2017
high pressure ridge will be over the area today with a cold
front approaching from the northwest tonight. The cold front
will March through the area on Saturday with cooler and drier
air for Sunday and Monday. Unsettled weather will be over the
region for Monday night through Thursday.
Near term /through tonight/...
low pressure well off the southeast coast will continue moving away
from the region today with a ridge of high pressure in control
of the forecast area. Infrared satellite imagery shows a few clouds
crossing the far northern midlands with surface observations
indicating fog beginning to develop. Expect the fog to expand
through daybreak as winds will remain light then dissipate by
the mid morning hours. Skies will remain mostly sunny through
the afternoon hours and with upper level ridging building expect
high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s...the daily
record for Friday at cae is 81 degrees and 82 for ags, both set
in 1985. The situation will begin changing late tonight as a
cold front moves toward the area. Clouds will begin increasing
toward daybreak with winds becoming southerly at around 5 mph.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
cold front will move into the area Saturday morning and to the
coast by late afternoon. Main concern with the front remains the
limited moisture and best dynamics north of the area. With 850
mb winds at and ahead of the front turning western expect some
downsloping to also limit rain chances. As such have remained
with slight chance pops for the northern midlands and Pee Dee
areas with no rain expected from the central midlands through
the csra. Rainfall which occurs will be light with less than one
tenth of an inch expected. Strong pressure gradient Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night could warrant a lake Wind
Advisory. High pressure along with cooler and drier air will
build into the area for Saturday night through Sunday night with
high temperatures Sunday in the lower to middle 60s and Sunday
nights lows in the upper 30s to around 40.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
models are in good agreement for Monday and Tuesday then differ
on the timing of the next cold front arriving Wednesday or
Wednesday night. High pressure will move east of the forecast
area Monday with an upper level disturbance moving into the
region Monday night. This will bring a chance of rain to the
area by daybreak Tuesday with southerly flow returning for
Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS is substantially faster with the next
cold front pushing it through the forecast area Wednesday
afternoon while the European model (ecmwf) moves the front through closer to
daybreak on Thursday. As such have remained with slight chance
to chance pops due to confidence in model solutions.
Temperatures through the long term will be above normal.
Aviation /11z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR forecast through the period.
Surface and upper ridge across the area. Air mass dry although
shallow low level moisture. Scattered cumulus mainly this
afternoon. Light southwest winds becoming south overnight. Winds
may increase toward end of taf period as cold front approaches
from the west. With increasing winds in the boundary layer
overnight...fog is not expected.
Extended aviation outlook...a cold front with limited moisture
will bring breezy conditions Saturday.