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fxus62 kcae 291003 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
603 am EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

high pressure ridge will build southwest across the Carolinas
today then move off the East Coast Thursday. Moisture will
return Thursday with a chance of showers, especially in the
csra. A warm front will move through the area early Friday
followed by a cold front late. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Friday. It will be slightly cooler
Thursday and Friday with unsettled conditions but warmer and
drier over the weekend.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a weak cold front has pushed south through the area and will
stall near the csra today. Ridging aloft and at the surface
will dominate the pattern providing dry weather with mostly
sunny skies. Despite northeasterly low level winds, the airmass
will moderate quickly behind the frontal boundary. Subsidence
and nearly full insolation will promote above normal
temperatures, in the lower 80s.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
frontal boundary will remain just off to the south of the
forecast area tonight, then will begin to move northward as a
warm/moist front Thursday. Clouds will begin to increase through
the night tonight as moisture begins to lift over the old front.

Weak isentropic lift and low-level moisture flux increases more
on Thursday, and rain chances will be on the increase from south
to north as the day progresses. Moisture will ride over a weak
surface wedge north of the front, which will be retreating through
the day. With the expected clouds and rain, it's possible it
may be cooler during the afternoon in the csra than Pee Dee or
east midlands. Stayed close to current temperature forecast.
Warm front will lift further north during the evening and
overnight hours Thursday night. There remains some potential
for a few thunderstorms late Thursday night.


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
models have the main cold front and upper level trough moving
through the area on Friday. Timing of the front may not coincide
with peak heating, especially over the western counties. Better
chance for strong thunderstorms will exist in the early
afternoon across the east. By late afternoon, moisture and
instability will be moving out of the area as the front pushes
through. Storm Prediction Center has region in an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms for Friday. Behind the front, dry conditions will
move in for the weekend as ridge builds over the area. Another
system will approach from the west on Monday, which will help to
bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
region. Temperatures remain above normal.


Aviation /10z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high confidence in VFR conditions through this evening. Restrictions
possible early Thursday in fog/stratus.

The weak frontal boundary has slipped south of the area with
surface winds becoming north-northeasterly. Ridging will
dominate the area today promoting dry weather. Clouds and
moisture will increase late tonight as the frontal boundary
returns north. Models indicate potential for fog/stratus to
develop early Thursday, although a 25 knot low level jet may
limit fog potential. Confidence is too low to include at this

Extended aviation outlook...restrictions likely in showers and
thunderstorms Thursday through Friday night as an cold front
crosses the region.


Cae watches/warnings/advisories...

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