Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 241732
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1232 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018
near record temperatures will continue into this weekend. High
pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and moist air
into region today. A cold front will cross the area Sunday into
Monday bringing a high chance of showers. Temperatures will
remain above normal next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
the high pressure ridge has shifted further south directing a
more southwesterly flow today. The upstream low pressure system
will lift northeastward today tightening the pressure gradient
over the southeast. Expected breezier conditions today with
winds from 7 to 13 mph and gusts up to 20 mph at times. Ridging
and strong, warm advection today suggests temperatures above or
near record highs again. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s. The record high for cae/ags today is 82/84.
The mid-level capping inversion remains in place today although
weaker than yesterday. The cap and a lack of a forcing mechanism
near the surface suggests showers are unlikely to develop. Hi-
res models are in agreement showing little to no convective
development over the forecast area this afternoon. A weak
shortwave will move over the SC upstate this afternoon which may
support enhanced cumulus. Cannot rule out an isolated, weak
shower along the Piedmont differential heating boundary this
afternoon but we generally do not expect measurable rainfall.
Tonight, a much stronger low level jet and high clouds will make
fog less likely than the previous few nights. The hrrr which
verified well for this mornings stratus suggests only areas of
low clouds overnight and early Sunday morning. Continued mild
temperatures with near record warmth. Any showers expected to
remain northwest of the area closer to the front.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
Sunday...low pressure will move from the northern Great Lakes
region into Quebec on Sunday which will allow the cold front to
cross the Appalachians and move into the western portion of the
forecast area. Moisture will continue to deepen on Sunday with
the chance of rain increasing. The NAM/European model (ecmwf) models are slower
than the GFS with the system but MOS favor high pops by late in
the afternoon. So think morning will be dry across the region
with increasing chance showers from west to east through the
afternoon into the evening. Continued with likely pops west on
Sunday closer to the frontal boundary and deeper moisture and
chance pops further east. Instability appears quite limited with
Li values near 0, but cannot rule out thunder. Believe the
better chance of rain will occur Sunday night so have continued
with likely pops across the area. The pressure gradient will
tighten on Sunday ahead of the front with breezy conditions
expected. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph are expected. A lake Wind Advisory may need to be
considered. Temperatures on Sunday will be above normal with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
Monday...upper level flow remains parallel to the front early in
the day so expect front to be slow to move east of the area.
Weak low pressure tracking northeast along the boundary from the
Gulf Coast states will focus showers across the area as
isentropic lift is enhanced along with low level convergence.
The showers should shift to the east late in the afternoon and
early evening. Cooler due to rain but temperatures but still
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
surface high pressure will move northeastward into the mid-
Atlantic states on Tuesday with dry weather and mostly sunny
skies expected across the forecast area. High pressure will
shift off the coast Tuesday night with moisture and the chance
of rain returning to the area for Wednesday. Low pressure over
the Great Lakes region on Thursday will bring the next cold
front into the area for the end of the work week with unsettled
weather continuing. Temperatures through the period will
continue to be above normal.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
predominantly VFR conditions expected during the period with
possible brief restrictions Sunday morning.
Scattered cumulus through the afternoon but no showers expected
at the taf sites. With high pressure further south than the
past few days, winds will be more out of the SW today. An
increasing pressure gradient will create breezy conditions with
winds around 10 kts with gusts around 16 kts at times.
Additional cloud cover and a stronger low level jet (llj) tonight
will lower the potential for fog and stratus. Generally we
expect VFR conditions but there may be a period of MVFR ceilings
Sunday morning. The hrrr which verified well for this mornings
stratus suggests widespread stratus is not likely tonight.
Sunday, with the cold front approaching from our west we will
see an increase in wind speeds. SW winds will be from 10 to 15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts after mid-morning.
Extended aviation outlook...a cold front will move across the
region Sunday evening into Monday bringing associated
restrictions and possibly thunderstorms. Another frontal system
may bring restrictions on Wednesday.
near record heat expected again today and possibly tonight.
Cae warmest high for 2/24 is 82 last set in 2017.
Cae warmest low for 2/25 is 61 last set in 1890.
Ags warmest high for 2/24 is 84 last set in 2017.
Ags warmest low for 2/25 is 61 last set in 1918.