Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1234 PM EDT sun Sep 24 2017
surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will
extend southward into our area through Monday. High pressure will
weaken a bit as Hurricane Maria moves northward off the Carolina
coast Monday through Thursday. Above normal temperatures will cool
for the end of next week behind a moisture limited cold front.
Near term /through tonight/...
dry, high pressure over the area will dominate preventing
showers and thunderstorms. High clouds will stream over the
region from Maria in the Atlantic. It will be another warm day
with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Recent
verification suggests highs will again be a few degrees warmer
than guidance however the high clouds over the area will keep
temperatures cooler than they otherwise would have been.
Tonight, there will be a stronger low level jet because of the
tightening pressure gradient from Maria. High cloud coverage
from the outflow of Maria will weaken radiational cooling.
Dewpoints will also be lower than the past few nights. Therefore
fog appears unlikely. Lows will be in the mid 60s.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
an upper level ridge over the northeastern and mid Atlantic states
will continue extending into the Carolinas through Monday. Air
mass remains dry and capped. Hurricane Maria will be moving
North Well east of the South Carolina coast. Aside from
increased waves and swells along the coast no impacts are
expected from Hurricane Maria. Models have been consistently
showing above normal temperatures with with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
models show a pattern shift taking place for the latter half of next
week. The trough/ridge over the west/east on Tuesday will transition
to a ridge/trough over the west/east by Friday.
Surface high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the
Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday will weaken as Maria moves
northward off the Carolina coast through Thursday. Although the
official track of Maria has shifted slightly westward, Maria is
forecast to remain offshore with no impacts for midlands and
csra. A moisture limited frontal boundary moving through on
Friday will bring cooler temperatures for next weekend.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions to dominate the period.
High pressure over the northeast will continue pushing dry air
southward and into the terminals through the period. Expect some
cumulus to develop from the late morning through the afternoon
hours but with the drier air in place convection is not
Dry air, scattered to broken high clouds and a moderate low
level jet will prevent fog tonight.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected Monday through Thursday.