Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
935 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017
a series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of
Mexico northeastward across Florida and offshore the Carolinas
through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness along with a
slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern and eastern
areas. A dry cold front will cross the region Saturday night,
with high pressure building into the region for Sunday through
Near term /until 7 am Friday morning/...
mean upper trough axis extending along the mountains this
evening will slowly move eastward into the area overnight.
Stalled frontal boundary off the Carolina coast extending
southwest across Florida. Weak low pressure will move northeast
along the frontal boundary overnight.
Models indicate deep moisture and lift and associated rain east
of the midlands...along the coast. Skies clear cross much of
the forecast area. Lingering high level clouds along the I-95
corridor still expected to move east overnight.
Hourly temperatures running a little cooler than guidance.
Therefore...have lowered overnight lows a couple of degrees
ranging from the lower 30s north...middle 30s central to upper
30s southeast. Fog should not be a problem overnight given
slight mixing due to a low level jet and upper trough moving
into the area.
Short term /7 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
the upper level trough will shift eastward Friday, and with it
the shortwave energy that has been bringing rain to the coast.
Precipitation will therefore remain south and east of the area.
Southwest flow will bring warmer weather on Saturday, with highs
in the mid to upper 60s. However, another broad trough will move
in, and a cold front will swing through the area Saturday
night. Dry conditions will persist with little impact other
than some cloudiness, as moisture appears limited in a northwest flow
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
cooler and drier air will follow Saturday night's front, and high
pressure will build into the region Sunday through Tuesday,
providing fair conditions. Frost and freezing conditions will be
possible Monday and Tuesday mornings. Models differences
continue concerning a closed low that will track across the
southern U.S. Mid-week. The warm front will bring lift
temperatures into the mid 60s to low 70s on Wednesday, but there
is uncertainty about how much if any rain will fall. The GFS is
the most robust, but there is also some support from the
Canadian. Have kept a slight chance of showers in the forecast
Wednesday and Thursday.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
Frontal boundary remains stalled offshore of the Carolinas with
a weak low pressure center over central Florida. Radar currently
shows rain associated with the low pressure and front along the
SC coast and expect rain to remain east of the terminals through
the period. The low center will move northeastward along the
frontal boundary overnight and and away from the region Friday
allowing high pressure and drier air to build into the
terminals. Winds through the period will be northeasterly at 6
knots or less.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected through Tuesday.