Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
335 am CDT sun Oct 23 2016
Short term (today through monday)...
High pressure ridge settles over southeast US today and Monday
with a light to moderate onshore flow redeveloping across south
Texas. This will gradually increase low level moisture over the
region. Upper level moisture will also be increasing on a stream
of Pacific moisture that will keep mid and high level clouds over
the region through the short term period. An upper level shortwave
will pass over the area today, but think limited low level
moisture will keep showers from developing this afternoon. Another
short wave on Monday could lead to isolated showers as sufficient
moisture should be back in place. Warming temperatures are
forecast through the short term period with highs in the mid and
upper 80s today and upper 80s on Monday. Lows tonight in the mid
and upper 60s.
Long term (monday night through saturday)...
Confidence in rain chances remain on the low side, although will
remain consistent on keeping low pops over the southern and coastal
areas Tuesday and Wednesday, since there is sufficient instability
and moisture to warrant some rain chance, especially with the
surface moisture convergence. There also remains the diffluence
aloft which could help somewhat. However, the upper ridge is not
that far away, and by Wednesday night it begins to take control and
slowly bring drier air. Thus, will end rain chances (except
offshore) by Thursday as the ridge comes in, with no rainfall after
that, since pwats remain at or below 1 inch (mainly the latter).
Thus, overall not much change to the previous package concerning
rainfall. Could be a brief wind shift/boundary on Thursday as the
upper ridge orients north-S, but not much of a cool-down since the north-S
flow starts in the Southern Plains. Thus, temperature modifications
will be limited, and for the most part we will see slightly above
normal temperatures in the long-term. Concerning temperatures,
generally went with a blend of the superblend and nationalblend,
with some coastal adjustments where needed (but not a lot needed).
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 87 69 87 69 86 / 10 10 20 10 20
Victoria 85 64 87 65 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
Laredo 86 68 88 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 87 66 89 67 88 / 10 10 20 10 20
Rockport 84 72 86 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
Cotulla 86 67 88 68 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 87 68 88 67 88 / 10 10 20 10 20
Navy corpus 84 74 86 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
Texas...coastal Flood Advisory until 4 am CDT early this morning for the
following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.