Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 240011 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
711 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017
Forecast was updated to issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 for
all of south Texas until 11pm. Damaging winds and large hail are
the primary hazards. Updated products out.
Previous discussion... /issued 652 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017/
Updated for 00z aviation.
Thunderstorms will be the main aviation hazard during the first
part of the period. Strong to severe convection continues to move
southeast along boundary, and could likely impact the ali/crp/vct
terminals. Only included thunderstorms in the vicinity remarks at lrd for now. Reduced
vsbys, brief heavy rains, and gusty erratic winds may occur with
the strongest storms. Behind the storms and after fropa, VFR
conditions are expected with clearing skies.
Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017/
Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
Msas depicts the cold front entering central Texas. Most recent laps
analysis depicts 1500-2500 j/kg SBCAPE over the County Warning Area. Expect cape
values to continue to increase this aftn/early evening. Most
recent select laps soundings depict above normal precipitable water values. The
deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict the upper disturbance to move
across the region tonight/Wednesday yet with the bulk of the
700-300mb q-vector convergence north of the cwa/msa. Nevertheless,
a strong upper jet streak is predicted to affect the County Warning Area. The
combination surface/upper jet forcing, instability and moisture
will contribute to scattered convection over the County Warning Area/msa
overnight. Strong/severe convection remains a possibility given
expected conditions favorable for supercells. Anticipate the bulk
of the convection over the County Warning Area to occur generally during the
00-04z Wednesday period. Deterministic output predicts strong
synoptic scale subsidence/q-vector divergence over the County Warning Area/msa
Wednesday. Although much drier conditions Wednesday afternoon, not
confident in elevated/critical fire weather conditions given
expectation of limited wind. Much drier conditions Wednesday will
contribute to cool temperatures Wednesday night.
Coastal/marine (tonight through Wednesday night)...buoy 42020
measures 3ft/8s swell and nwps predicts continued onshore swell
direction. Yet, when combined with light wind precludes high rip
current risk this evening. Anticipate Small Craft Advisory conditions over the
coastal waters during the 05-12z Wednesday period owing to
vertical mixing of greater momentum.
Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
Return flow commences soon into the extended period, spearheading a
significant warmup into the weekend. Thermal profiles suggest highs
near or above 100 degrees out in the western brush country by
Friday, with 90s everywhere else except along the immediate
coastline. Heat indices will rise along with the temperatures,
possibly reaching critical values during peak heating this weekend.
Onshore winds will pick up each afternoon through the weekend, and
small craft advisories may be needed at certain points through the
first half of the extended period.
The weather pattern then takes a sharp turn as a broad upper trough
settles into the Midwest US. Rain chances begin late Sunday but
increase Sunday night through Tuesday as weak impulses move through
this flow and cooler temperatures aloft erode our usual cap. Expect
highs mainly in the 80s through at least the first half of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 63 86 68 90 77 / 50 0 0 0 0
Victoria 58 86 64 90 75 / 50 0 0 0 0
Laredo 63 89 68 99 76 / 40 0 0 0 0
Alice 60 87 63 94 76 / 50 10 0 0 0
Rockport 64 83 73 87 79 / 50 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 59 87 65 98 75 / 40 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 62 87 65 92 77 / 50 10 0 0 0
Navy corpus 67 82 74 88 80 / 50 10 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 am CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: coastal waters from
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 nm...coastal waters from
Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 nm...waters
from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60