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fxus64 kcrp 281804 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
104 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017


See aviation discussion for the 18z taf's.



Clouds across S Texas are eroding/scattering out except for the
western areas where clouds are more persistent but also showing
signs of eroding per visible satellite. Am expecting VFR
conditions across all of S Texas over the next couple of hours as
cloud bases lift to around 3500 feet. MVFR conditions are expected
this evening. Thunderstorms and rain chances increase across the northwest County Warning Area by late
evening then shifts eastward overnight into Wed morning hours. Am
expecting the convection to end by mid morning Wed.


Previous discussion... /issued 950 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/


See marine discussion below for the latest updates.


Although, mixing of a low level jet of 35-40 knots will be hampered
somewhat as lapse rates will be lower over the waters than land,
feel sufficient mixing will lead to at least speeds of around 20
knots along with frequent gusts to around 25 knots. Therefore,
have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to include the bays.

Previous discussion... /issued 626 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/


Note aviation discussion corresponding to the 12z tafs


LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities early this morning will
transition to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Light onshore
early this morning will increase to breezy/windy by afternoon.
There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms near the end
of the taf period especially over the northern portions of south
Texas. Some storms may become strong, mainly over the Victoria
Crossroads 09-12z Wednesday.

Previous discussion... /issued 504 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Short term (today through wednesday)...

Deterministic nwp models predict a strong upper disturbance to
approach Texas today then move slowly across Texas/Southern Plains
tonight through Wednesday. Moisture expected to increase over the
County Warning Area in advance of the upper system, yet precipitable water values not expected
to reach/exceed normal until after 06z wednesdsay (nam
deterministic.) 06-12z Wednesday...NAM deterministic predict
significant cin with high cape and strong 0-6km shear with brn in
the multi-cellular/supercelluar range. Surface boundary to remain
northwest of the County Warning Area. Thus, only elevated convection anticipated yet any
such convection may become strong. 12-18z Wednesday...continued
upper forcing from the upper system. Cin values decrease and
cape/shear remains high, yet significant drying expected in
response to frontal/dryline passage. Convection may develop along
this boundary and become strong. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for the
northestern County Warning Area after 12z Wednesday. After 18z Wednesday...significant
drying expected which will limit convective development.

Coastal/marine...areas of sea fog early this morning over the bays
and nearshore coastal waters (surface dew points near the SST
values.) Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop over the coastal waters
today and continue tonight/early Wednesday morning. The sea state
based on wavewatch/nwps output and expected sfc wind velocities
suggest moderate rip current risk today and a high risk Wednesday.

Long term (wednesday night through Monday night)...

Surface cold front will push through the forecast area late
Wednesday night. Convergence along the boundary combined with
dynamical support from lingering upper trough will result in
scattered showers. Models still show plenty of cape across the
coastal Bend ahead of the boundary, which if realized could result
in a stormy night. However the cap appears to strong to break, thus
limiting pcpn to primarly showers. Much drier air surges into the
area on Thursday/Friday with min relative humidity values of 25-35%. However, winds
will not be strong enough to reach critical fire thresholds. The
drier airmass will lead to a few pleasant nights with min temps in
the upper 50s/lower 60s by Fri am. Onshore flow returns on Friday
as the next storm system moves into the southern rockies. Expect a
few streamer showers Saturday before stronger dynamics move in
Sunday when the best chance of rain/storms will occur.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 84 72 88 65 82 / 10 10 40 20 10
Victoria 84 71 85 62 79 / 10 40 70 20 10
Laredo 95 69 93 63 86 / 10 30 10 10 10
Alice 89 71 91 63 84 / 10 20 30 20 10
Rockport 81 72 81 67 79 / 10 20 40 20 10
Cotulla 92 65 91 60 84 / 10 50 10 10 0
Kingsville 88 72 92 64 85 / 10 10 30 20 10
Navy corpus 80 73 82 68 79 / 10 10 40 20 10


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...
coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 nm...
coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 nm.

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