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fxus64 kcrp 211018 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
418 am CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Short term (today through thursday)...

Complex of showers and storms which moved through the area during
the evening and overnight has thrown a wrench into the forecast.
However, am beginning to feel that the initial feeling that the
frontal boundary (quite shallow in nature) will move through the
northern portions of south Texas today, then gradually move into
the southern areas this afternoon. Reasoning for this is the
latest msas is showing some pressure rises now over the Texas Hill
country and that should begin to be seen over the next few hours
as the cold air begins to push southward. GFS as usual is a bit
too slow (it has trouble with these cold air masses), and the hi
res models are not too far off in having the front come down this
morning over the northern areas, gradually brining it down in the
afternoon over the southern areas in the afternoon. Thus, it
looks like there will be a pretty good gradient in temperatures
today, with some extreme northern areas perhaps seeing their highs
around sunrise but seeing some low 80s over the extreme southern
areas (see pfmcrp or sftcrp for temperature extremes rather than
relying on zfpcrp which could average out values). Better chance
for rain with boundary over the northern areas in the morning, but
then eastern areas in the afternoon. Along with the daytime
heating and boundary, an upper jet with perhaps some diffluence
could also help to assist in storm development; however we may
still remain on the wrong side of the jet and the better
diffluence will be north of the area.

For tonight, will see much cooler temperatures again relying on
the hi res models for the guidance rather than GFS on 24 hour old
ECMWF/Canadian. Ditto on Thursday, especially that there will be a
lot of clouds and perhaps some rain (confidence in how much rain
is not strong) as isentropic upglide pattern is not strong for
rain but for drizzle (looking at the NAM, GFS not accepted due to
its warm temperatures). Better chances for rain this evening over
the southern/eastern areas, then inland on Thursday with the over-
running pattern.


Marine (today through thursday)...

Scec this morning as good rise/fall couplet as atmosphere tries to
adjust to Post convection. Winds taper off during the day, then
winds increase behind the front later this afternoon and tonight
mainly northeastern areas today then most areas tonight. Could
have borderline Small Craft Advisory but with timing issues will hold off on early
or second period Small Craft Advisory. Sustained moderate north wind on Thursday
with coastal trough offshore.


Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...

Limited available medium/long range model data has resulted in
little to no significant changes being made to the inherited long
term forecast. Surface front is still expected to be along the mid
Texas coast thurs night with a very shallow cold/dense airmass
persisting across inland S Texas. Forecast soundings from both the NAM
and GFS indicate a warm moist and unstable airmass aloft persisting
Thursday night with a rather potent mid level vort Max approaching
the area. This increase in DPVA should allow for scattered elevated
showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop overnight...with the
greatest coverage occurring across the brush country. GFS then
rapidly pushes the surface boundary back inland while the NAM is
much, much slower. Given the density of the airmass, have opted to
go with a blend of the NAM/sref for winds and temps for thurs

A return to warm southeast flow and modifying temps should occur
Friday and especially Saturday when 850 mb temps are prog to increase
to around 20c with some dry adiabatic conditions and strong mixing
existing/occurring. Next front is currently prog to arrive late
Saturday and Saturday night with low chances of precip existing with
the boundary. Much cooler conditions are then expected for Sunday
with only a slow modification in temps expected early next week.
Forecast certainty/confidence for fropa timing and associated pops
are currently rather low, however.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 77 48 57 51 75 / 50 60 50 40 10
Victoria 72 43 54 48 75 / 70 60 50 30 10
Laredo 81 47 56 49 71 / 30 40 40 40 20
Alice 76 46 56 50 74 / 50 60 50 40 10
Rockport 70 49 58 53 73 / 50 60 40 30 10
Cotulla 70 44 53 47 70 / 70 40 50 40 20
Kingsville 79 49 58 50 76 / 40 60 50 40 10
Navy corpus 71 51 59 54 75 / 40 70 40 30 10


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...


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