Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 262338
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
638 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018
Updated for 00z aviation.
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period as dry
air remains overhead. Have taken out MVFR conditions from early
morning lrd forecast, think will be just a scattered cloud cover.
Expect more clouds, especially in the mid levels on Friday, but
VFR conditions should persist. Mainly light winds are expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 312 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/
Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
Weak east to east northeasterly flow has developed across the
region this afternoon. Light southeast winds will persist through
most of the night. A secondary surge of high pressure will slide
into the region late tonight into early Friday morning though, and
will back winds to a northeast flow once again on Friday. Most
locations should remain dry as moisture remains limited across the
area, but an isolated shower may stream over portions of the
western brush country on Friday morning.
Temperatures overnight will again dip into the mid 50s to lower
60s across the region. Friday will be warmer, with high in the low
to mid 80s. Relative humidity values will still stay on the lower
side though, and another pleasant Spring day can be expected.
Surface high pressure will quickly shift east of the region again
Friday night, veering light winds again to the southeast.
Temperatures tomorrow night will be a degree or two warmer.
Long term (saturday through thursday)...
A weak upper level ridge will be situated over south Texas this
weekend. Despite an impulse sneaking beneath upper ridge Saturday,
will hold off of mentioning low pops at this time over western parts
of the area. Temperatures this weekend will generally be in the
upper 70s along the coast to low/mid 80s inland.
Upper ridge shifts off to the east early next week as trough sets up
across the western US. Onshore flow will continue strengthen,
bringing deeper moisture back to south Texas. This will lead to a
slight chance of showers and storms returning on Monday. For the
middle part of the week, periodic impulses embedded in southwest
flow aloft will lead to slightly better chances of convection. For
now, will keep pops in the 20 to 30 percent range for Tuesday
through Thursday. Temperatures will continue to warm through the
week with highs in the mid 90s out west to lower 80s over the
Victoria Crossroads by Wed/thur. Southeast winds will be strongest
Tue/Wed and Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible over the
middle Texas coastal waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 60 82 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 0 10
Victoria 54 82 57 82 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
Laredo 66 82 64 82 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
Alice 59 84 60 83 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 61 81 64 79 67 / 10 10 10 0 10
Cotulla 61 82 61 84 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 60 84 60 83 63 / 10 10 10 0 10
Navy corpus 66 79 66 78 69 / 10 10 10 0 10