Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 252343
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
643 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017
Note aviation discussion below corresponding to the 00z tafs.
Expect current isolated convection to dissipate by around 02z
Monday. Predominate VFR conditions this evening will transition
to MVFR overnight with isolated/scattered convection developing
near the coast/offshore. A transition to a mixture of VFR/MVFR
conditions along with scattered convection over much of south
Texas during the mid morning through afternoon hours Monday.
Generally light east flow overnight/early Monday, increasing to
moderate by late afternoon Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 359 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017/
Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing farther west across
the brush country and Rio Grande plains as convergence zone moves
east. Earlier showers/storms have stabilized much of the coastal
areas, however there is isolated development, especially toward
the Victoria Crossroads, where additional heating has allowed for
development. Lack of upper support and flow has led to slow
moving storms. And with the amount of moisture available (pwats
around 2.0 inches per kcrp 12z sounding) heavy rain and localized
flooding is possible. Should see activity to wane during the
evening hours, but redevelopment is expected across the Gulf
waters late tonight. Similar conditions setup for Monday and
Monday night, with focus for development along the coast during
the overnight and morning hours, moving inland with daytime
heating. Made only minor tweaks to the temperature grids keeping
temps in the lower to mid 90s as breaks in the activity have
allowed temps to warm in between showers.
Long term (tuesday through saturday)...
Weakening mid-level shear axis overhead sandwiched between two
ridges makes for a continued unsettled pattern. Ample total
column moisture in place combined with sea breeze and coastal
convergence zones keeps scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the region Tuesday. Drier
air begins to work into the region from the northwest as the
shear axis breaks down and weak mid-level ridging moves in aloft.
This helps to decrease pops Wednesday through Friday but does not
completely dry US out. Stronger southeasterly winds towards the
end of the work week allow for shower activity to become more
isolated to scattered rather than numerous.
The stronger winds and decreasing chances for rain Thursday and
Friday will actually help to boost daytime temperatures back
above average. When combined with slightly above seasonal pwats,
around 1.9-2.0", heat index values look to be between 105 to 109
degrees through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 77 90 77 89 75 / 40 50 30 60 20
Victoria 73 90 73 90 74 / 30 50 30 60 30
Laredo 76 94 76 94 75 / 30 40 20 50 20
Alice 73 93 73 92 73 / 30 50 20 60 20
Rockport 78 89 78 89 78 / 40 50 40 60 30
Cotulla 74 93 74 94 74 / 30 40 20 40 10
Kingsville 74 92 75 90 74 / 30 50 30 60 20
Navy corpus 80 88 80 90 79 / 40 50 40 50 30
Texas...coastal flood advisory from 2 am to noon CDT Monday for the
following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.