Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 212335
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
635 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017
Updated for 00z aviation.
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals overnight. A brief
period of MVFR visibilities will be possible at kvct early
Tuesday morning. Winds will remain from the southeast throughout the
period, but will continue to decouple overnight. Expecting winds
to pick up once again Tuesday afternoon as seabreeze pushes
Previous discussion... /issued 404 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/
Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
Guidance progs limited precip chances tonight and Tuesday across
the region as moisture depth lessens. Could see an isolated shower
across the offshore Gulf waters tonight...but for the most part
the vast majority of the region is prog to remain dry overnight
while on the west side of a TUTT low. Lower moisture depth should
result in near normal min temps for mid August along with mainly
clear skies overnight. Thin cu field expected for Tuesday with
only a brief and isolated shower possible across primarily the north
coastal Bend and Victoria area. Hot temps will prevail again tues
afternoon...but lower dewpoints should make it feel less
Long term (wednesday through monday)...
The TUTT low weakens over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
Adequate moisture will be available along the coast for isolated
showers or thunderstorms to form along the sea breeze boundary. The
rest of the forecast depends upon the tropical wave approaching the
Yucatan Peninsula, the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey. Models are
in agreement that Harvey should reorganize as it moves into the
southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. Consensus of all of the
tropical models and ensembles show a more northwest track across the
Gulf of Mexico to just south of Brownsville early Friday morning.
Too early to tell how strong this potential tropical system will
become, but rain chances will be going up for south Texas for the
end of the week with likely pops Friday through Saturday. Looking at
some of the long range models, concern for this system will likely
be the potential for very heavy rainfall. Especially if this system
slows down as much as some of the models indicate. Will keep rain
chances conservative for Sunday into Monday at 40-50 percent but
could be higher than that depending upon movement of this system.
For marine interests, winds and seas will be increasing Thursday
night into Friday. Will show Small Craft Advisory conditions for the coastal waters
Thursday night through Friday night. Will show seas increasing to
around 8 feet over the offshore waters Friday but wave watch models
show the potential for seas to be quite a bit higher.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 75 95 74 96 77 / 10 10 10 20 20
Victoria 75 96 75 97 76 / 10 10 10 20 20
Laredo 77 101 77 102 78 / 0 10 0 10 10
Alice 75 99 72 100 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
Rockport 80 93 79 93 81 / 10 10 10 20 20
Cotulla 76 101 75 101 76 / 0 10 0 10 10
Kingsville 75 97 74 98 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
Navy corpus 80 92 79 92 82 / 10 10 10 20 20