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fxus64 kcrp 121531 aab 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
931 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017


Updated hourly temperature grids to reflect trends. The front is
slowly pushing through south Texas this morning with northerly
winds picking up behind the front. Continued dry conditions are
expected due to lack of moisture across the region. No other
major changes made to the grids.


Previous discussion... /issued 505 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017/


See aviation discussion below for the 12z tafs.


VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A weak cold
front this morning will slightly strengthen northerly winds with
gusts briefly to around 25kt. Winds relax by afternoon with light
northerly winds expected tonight.

Previous discussion... /issued 252 am CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

Short term (today through wednesday)...

A long wave trough moving south across the plains is pushing a weak
cold front toward the County Warning Area. The cold front is expected to reach S Texas
later this morning and shift winds to the north as it continues
southward. Winds are expected to strengthen to weak to moderate
levels across S Texas with moderate winds developing over the waters
through late morning into early afternoon. Winds are expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, however brief periods of
gusts to 25 knots over the open waters will be possible. Highs today
will be 2-4 degrees cooler ranging from mid 60s to around 70 under
mostly sunny skies. The northerly wind is expected to diminish
tonight becoming light and vrb then becoming southerly Wed. As winds
relax tonight under clear skies, radiational cooling will allow
temps to lower to the upper 30s to lower 40s overnight. The onshore
wind will begin to bring clouds back into S Texas Wed with similar
highs as today. As for fire weather concerns, afternoon min relative humidity
values will be very low, but winds are expected to remain below
elevated or red flag criteria. However, if winds are a bit stronger
than expected, an elevated fire danger threat may develop.

Long term (wednesday night through tuesday)...

Deterministic GFS/European model (ecmwf) predict two primary disturbances moving
across the Continental U.S. During the period. The first is predicted to
develop/move across The Rockies/plains Wednesday night/Thursday then
across the southeastern Continental U.S. Friday, with timing differences. The foregoing
deterministic runs predict the second system to enter the West Coast
Friday, move across The Rockies Saturday, across the Southern Plains
Sunday, followed by the southeastern Continental U.S. Monday, with differences in
timing/position/strength. In response to the first system, a cold
front is expected to move across the County Warning Area Thursday then offshore
Thursday night. Further, the County Warning Area/msa is predicted to be under the
rrq of an upper jet streak Thursday/Friday. Yet, latest
deterministic GFS run predicts precipitable water values below normal in advance
of the front and thus not convinced that precipitation will develop
along the front. At least scec conditions expected over the msa
Thursday night/Friday in response to the front. In advance of the
second system, the GFS continues to predict isentropic lift over the
County Warning Area/msa Saturday/Sunday yet with low condensation pressure deficits
confined to the extreme eastern cwa/msa. Anticipate patchy light
rain/isolated showers over the msa Saturday night. The approach of
the second system/associated frontal boundary/increasing moisture in
advance of the front may result in isolated showers over the eastern
County Warning Area/msa Sunday. Drier conditions anticipated for Monday/Tuesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 69 40 69 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
Victoria 67 36 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Laredo 70 43 69 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
Alice 70 39 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
Rockport 66 44 65 51 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cotulla 68 39 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 71 39 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Navy corpus 69 47 66 54 72 / 0 0 0 10 10


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...

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