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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
404 am CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016

Short term (today through wednesday)...

Concur with the GFS ensemble mean that the upper low just offshore
will remain quasi-stationary...and that the surface trough will
affect the eastern cwa/msa...today. GFS ensemble mean output suggests
that the upper ridge to the north will build over the region
tonight/Wednesday and decrease the upper forcing support for
convection. Recent sport CIRA depict high precipitable water values areawide.
Deterministic output maintains copious moisture over the County Warning Area/msa
today/tonight with a gradual decrease from north to S Wednesday.
Thus...expect scattered convection areawide with activity to
continue over the eastern County Warning Area/msa this morning then over the entire
County Warning Area during the afternoon. Noctural convection tonight mainly
offshore/along coast. Wednesday...additonal convection yet lower
pops owing to decrease in upper forcing. Will retain the cfw owing
to recent 2ft msl at bob Hall pier. Nwps output suggest low

&&

Long term (wednesday night through labor day)...

Effects of mid level low will continue to wane during the start of
the long term period as remnants of disturbance shift farther to the
south. However...waning disturbance will maintain a weakness in the
height field aloft...and sufficient moisture depth should result in
at least isolated convection developing across mainly the eastern
2/3 of the County Warning Area on Thursday. Mid level ridging is then prog to
strengthen across the County Warning Area late this week and over the Labor Day
weekend resulting in hotter and sunnier conditions. Mid level ridge
center is then prog to shift across the southeast Continental U.S. Late in the Holiday
weekend with a mid level disturbance advecting west-northwest around the
southern periphery of the ridge at that time. This may result in a
return to convective chances by early next week...though forecast
certainty in this output is currently low.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 88 77 91 76 98 / 50 20 40 10 20
Victoria 87 75 94 73 97 / 50 20 30 10 20
Laredo 92 75 94 76 98 / 50 30 30 10 10
Alice 89 74 93 74 99 / 50 20 40 10 20
Rockport 87 78 91 76 95 / 50 20 40 10 20
Cotulla 90 75 94 76 97 / 50 30 20 10 10
Kingsville 89 75 92 74 98 / 50 20 40 10 20
Navy corpus 87 79 89 78 94 / 50 20 40 10 20

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Kleberg...Nueces...San Patricio.

GM...none.

&&

$$

Wc/87...short term
rh/79...long term

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