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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
600 am CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Discussion...see aviation section for 12z tafs.


Aviation...clear skies and VFR conditions are expected for the
region through this afternoon. The temperature-dewpoint
depressions were 1-2 degrees in some spots across the Victoria
Crossroads and coastal Bend early this morning. Could see some
ground fog/patchy fog develop around daybreak that could provide
MVFR vsbys. High clouds will be on the increase from the afternoon
into the evening hours as a weak upper level disturbance moves
into northern Mexico. An increase in moisture will move into the
coastal areas late tonight. Isolated showers will be possible
along the coast after 08z along with MVFR ceilings. Winds will be
lighter over the inland areas where MVFR vsbys are expected from
08-12z Thursday.


Previous discussion... /issued 420 am CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

Short term (today through thursday)...

The very dry air mass will remain over the region today with high
temperatures near normal. There will be a transition to higher
moisture late tonight into Thursday. A weak trough axis will move
into the coastal waters overnight. Models are in agreement that an
axis of high moisture from the northwest Gulf will move toward the
coast late tonight. Low level lapse rates are forecast to be steep
with lapse rates of around 7 degrees c/km in the 1000-850 layer.
Expect scattered showers will form over the Gulf waters overnight
and be near the coast before daybreak. This deeper moisture, with
models showing precipitable water values back above 1.5 inches,
will move into the coastal plains on Thursday. As this occurs, a
weak short wave trough will move through The Big Bend of Texas and
northern Mexico tonight and move into the brush country Thursday.
Expect scattered convection will occur over the coastal waters
into the coastal plains with isolated convection over the eastern
part of the brush country for Thursday.

Tides (today)...

Tide levels continue to be above normal along the middle Texas
coast. Tides are running slightly above a foot from Port Aransas
to bob Hall pier. The next astronomical high tide is an elevated
one this afternoon. Combined with these elevated tides, water
should reach 2 feet mean sea level for Gulf facing beaches south of Port
Aransas. A coastal flood advisory is in effect from 18z today
until 00z Thursday.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...

Moisture will continue to increase across the region over the end of
the week into the weekend. The deeper longwave trough will dig into
the northwestern states Thursday night and move east and further
south through the end of the week. Several shortwaves will round
the approaching trough and move across the region as this main upper
level trough digs into the central states, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend.
The main trough will dig into south Texas bringing an associated
cold front through the region on Sunday. Drier and cooler air will
move into the region, dropping rain chances Monday through the end
of the period.

With regard to temperatures, a steady warming trend will continue
through the end of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s returning by Saturday. This upcoming cold front is not showing
to be as strong as the previous one, but will still experience a
fair drop in temperatures Sunday into early next week, with lows
dropping from the upper 60s/lower 70s back into the upper 50s/lower
60s. Highs early next week will stay in the low to mid 80s, but
with lower relative humidity values again, will feel more pleasant and seasonable.

Long moderate to strong easterly fetch across the Gulf will possibly
lead to additional minor coastal flooding into the end of the week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 85 67 85 71 85 / 10 20 40 20 30
Victoria 85 64 85 67 85 / 0 10 40 30 40
Laredo 88 63 87 69 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
Alice 88 63 88 68 88 / 0 10 30 20 20
Rockport 83 69 84 73 86 / 10 20 40 30 40
Cotulla 86 60 85 67 87 / 0 0 10 20 10
Kingsville 87 63 88 69 88 / 0 20 30 20 30
Navy corpus 81 71 84 75 87 / 10 30 40 30 40


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...coastal flood advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.


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