Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 241751 aac
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1151 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017
See aviation discussion for 18z tafs.
Just waiting for the winds to come up and/or shift in terminals
which it should do in the next hour or two if it has not already.
After that, basically elevated winds this afternoon diminish
toward 25/00z and begin to veer and increase again toward 06z as
the surface ridge builds in behind the cold front. Generally will
see NE winds overnight, stronger at kcrp due to coming in from the
bays with lower winds elsewhere. Winds diminish behind surge and
increase again a couple hours after sunrise, but overall tried to
keep it short and just keep a NE wind around 11 knots for the
period. Winds at klrd may become due east by end of terminal. P6sm
Previous discussion... /issued 943 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
Updated gridded forecast (and needed public/fire weather
products) for clouds and dew points. Kept high temperatures as-is
for now. Allowed Small Craft Advisory to expire as winds are diminishing as well as
seas. No need to update zones, as overall the forecast will be
Previous discussion... /issued 524 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
See aviation discussion below for the 12z taf's.
A few locations across S Texas have low ceilings around 500ft to 1000ft.
Also, patchy fog is leading to IFR vsby's, mainly for mid sections
of the County Warning Area. VFR conditions are expected by mid morning across all
of S Texas. A dryline approaching the northern portions of S TX,
will continue to move southeast through S Texas today bringing drier
conditions to the area and maintaining VFR conditions through the
remainder of the taf period. Sfc winds will shift to the northwest and
become moderate behind the dryline today. The colder air will
arrive tonight with high pressure settling across the region. This
will lead to winds becoming light out of the north tonight and NE
Previous discussion... /issued 406 am CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
Short term (today through saturday)...
Moderate to strong southerly winds across the offshore waters are at
advisory levels this morning, however winds should decrease through
late morning as a dryline/trough of low pressure moves across S Texas.
The dryline is expected to push east-southeast across S Texas today bringing
drier conditions to the area. Borderline fire weather conditions are
expected across the western County Warning Area as very dry conditions combine with
borderline 20ft winds by late morning into early afternoon. Will be
going with a red flag warning for Webb and LaSalle counties for late
morning into the afternoon. Although very dry conditions are
expected across all of S TX, 20ft wind speeds are expected to be
below red flag criteria across most of the area.
The dry air/abundant sunshine and west to northwest winds will lead
to another very warm day. Colder air is lagging behind and currently
moving across North Texas. This airmass is expected to move through S Texas by
late afternoon or early evening and across the waters tonight.
Cooler temps are expected behind the front tonight and Sat. Winds
may briefly reach Small Craft Advisory levels overnight with moderate northeast
winds expected Sat.
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
Surface high pressure will all ready be located east of the region
at the start of the extended. Onshore flow will resume as a result
and increase to moderate to strong levels especially over the Gulf
waters. Scec conditions seem likely by Sunday with marginal Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible. A deeper slug of moisture will move northward
across the western Gulf of Mexico, which may result in isolated
showers Sunday into Sunday night. Quiet weather will then continue
into the early part of next week in advance of the upper level
system and cold front. This upper trough will move into the plains
Tuesday night and then quickly eastward on Wednesday. The cold front
will move the region on Wednesday, with a few showers possible
across the coastal Bend into the Gulf waters. Northeasterly winds
will pick up behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Wednesday
night into Thursday.
Regarding temperatures, a warming trend will commence on Sunday with
highs returning to the 80s and 90s by Monday and continue into
Tuesday. Despite the cold front on Wednesday, highs should be able
to climb into the 80s in most locations. Cooler air will then settle
in the area by the end of the forecast with temps in the upper 60s
to lower 70s on Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 87 54 74 57 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
Victoria 85 46 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
Laredo 89 53 79 56 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Alice 88 49 75 53 82 / 0 0 0 10 20
Rockport 81 55 69 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cotulla 88 47 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 20
Kingsville 90 50 75 55 82 / 0 0 0 10 20
Navy corpus 81 59 72 61 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
Texas...red flag warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: La Salle...Webb.