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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
359 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...

Breezy south winds have persisted today with a deepening surface
low moving across the Great Plains. A cold front has moved through
the Texas Panhandle, and will continue tracking further south
overnight. The front will move into the County Warning Area late tonight/early
Wednesday morning, clearing the coast not long after sunrise.
Ahead of this boundary low level moisture will be sufficient for
low stratus clouds to develop. Light patchy fog will also be
possible across the coastal plains and eastward. As the front
moves through a few showers will be possible across the Victoria
Crossroads overnight and across the Gulf waters early Wednesday.

After a well above normally warm day, temperatures tonight will
only fall into the low to mid 60s across most locations.
Temperatures tomorrow will stay in the the 70s in wake of the
cold front. Much drier air will filter into the region also behind
this front. Elevated fire danger conditions will be possible as
minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to
lower 20s across inland areas, and in the low to mid 30s along the
immediate coast. North winds will relax overnight, and
temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s across most areas
Wednesday night.


.Long term (thursday through tuesday)...

The GFS/European model (ecmwf) deterministic predict the development of a broad upper
trough over the eastern Continental U.S. During the period before shifting eastward
while an upper trough/low develops over the southwestern Continental U.S./Northern Mexico.
This pattern will maintain a surface ridge over the County Warning Area/msa during
the period...and isentropic lift/low condensation pressure deficits
(300k) over the County Warning Area/msa Friday night-Saturday night. Anticipate
patchy light rain/isolated showers over portions of the County Warning Area/msa
Friday night through early Sunday. GFS deterministic/ensemble mean
suggest drier conditions over the County Warning Area/msa Sunday night/Monday. GFS
ensemble mean suggests increasing synoptic scale lift Tuesday
associated with the northern Mexico upper disturbance. Yet...
significantly lowered the probability of precipitation relative to the superblend for
Tuesday over the County Warning Area/msa owing to uncertainty regarding sufficient


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 63 77 49 66 49 / 10 10 0 0 0
Victoria 62 73 44 63 41 / 20 10 0 0 0
Laredo 58 75 47 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 61 77 46 68 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
Rockport 63 74 49 64 49 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 55 74 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 62 78 47 69 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
Navy corpus 64 74 52 65 52 / 10 10 0 0 0


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for the following
zones: waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 nm.


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