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fxus63 kddc 260833 
afdddc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
333 am CDT sun Mar 26 2017

..updated discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 333 am CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Today is another tricky temperature forecast. Mesoscale models (arw,
NAM, nmmb) all suggest that stratus will stick around for most of the
day. It appears that the warm sector/warm front will remain south into
okla and will not make it into kan. Therefore, have considerably reduced
highs for today than previously forecast. Northwest zones might barely make
it out of the 40s. In the se, lower 60s could be possible, although
these locations might not make it out of the 50s. This is particularly
true if the warm front does not move any north. Both arw and nmmb break
out precipitation north of the 500-hpa low axis today across the central,
northern, and eastern zones. Have adjusted the highest pops as a result.
Think that the most severe thunderstorms will remain into Oklahoma.
Elevated hailers could be possible across the far southeast zones. Elevated
lhp suggests hail might make it up to 1", but even MUCAPE will be limited.
Thinking up to 1" hail and 50-60 mph outflows are the main threats.
There also could be a cold core associated storm (low topped supercell)
that tracks along the warm front that could produce a tornado. This
is possible across northwest okla and not for the forecast district.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 333 am CDT sun Mar 26 2017

The precipitation will exit the area early Monday as the 500-hpa low
quickly moves away from the forecast district. Shortwave ridging will
build in behind with a dry forecast following. Highs on Monday should
rebound back into the 60s with a weak warm air advection pattern eventually developing.
Attention then turns to the late Tuesday and into Wednesday period.
The ec still shows a large low across the desert SW with considerable
moisture advection into the Great Plains. The warm sector will most
likely be east/southeast of the forecast area, however, a baroclinic zone and
isentropic lift will set the stage for a heavy rain event late Tuesday
and into Wednesday morning. A few inches could be possible with locally
higher amounts depending on the track of the low. Severe weather will
be on the unlikely side as SW Kansas will remain on the cold side of
the synoptic system. The 00z ec run was a little lighter on precip
amounts than compared to the 12z run, however, the overall consistency
of this model to show widespread rain across the forecast area is still important.
Beyond that, another chance for rain might enter the picture late in
the period as another wave with decent low level moisture impacts the
forecast district. Temps look to be fairly seasonal, maybe a touch
below in days of heavy rain.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1200 am CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Flight conditions will gradually lower to IFR through the
overnight period and linger into tomorrow. Kgck might
clear/improve later compared to kddc/khys. Winds will be east/southeast
10-20 kt and bcmg north/NE 15-25 kt by evening.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 57 39 67 42 / 50 50 0 0
gck 51 37 68 43 / 50 50 0 0
eha 58 36 67 42 / 20 10 0 10
lbl 58 38 68 44 / 20 20 0 0
hys 57 40 63 42 / 60 60 0 0
p28 63 45 67 43 / 60 60 10 0

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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