Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
530 PM CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

A strong upper level ridge continued to reside over the central Continental U.S.
This morning, between a deep upper low over the Ohio Valley and another
strong upper level trough approaching the Pacific northwest. Models
continue to show the upper ridge weakening over the next 24-36
hours. The weakening of the upper ridge and resultant increase in
weak westerly flow aloft will force weak Lee troughing at the
surface over eastern Colorado tonight through Friday. With
increasing southerly winds and weak low level warm advection, we
will see temperatures into the low to mid 70s over much of the
area with lower 80s returning to far southwest Kansas.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The NAM and GFS models continue to hint at some late night showers
developing over far southwest Kansas as a weak shortwave trough
approaches the Central High plains. Given this persistent trend,
have added some early morning showers to the forecast. Will continue
the trend of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday evening before
pops diminish with the passing of the shortwave trough.

The medium range models continue to show a strong upper system, now
approaching the Pacific northwest, swinging out over the central and
northern plains on Tuesday. The models appear to be trending toward
the idea of the upper low lifting out just to the north of western
Kansas while a strong vort lobe rotates around the base of the
upper low. As this develops, a dryline moves east across southwest
toward central Kansas with mid 60s dewpoints advecting northward ahead
of the dryline. Moderate instability is forecast along with 0-6 km
shear around 50-70 knots. Shear vectors are lining up more parallel
to the low level boundary which would support the idea of a rapidly
developing squall line. Whatever storms form in the area will rapidly
move off to the east/northeast Tuesday evening. With coordination
from surrounding offices to the east and north, have lowered pops from
what the superblend produced. The weather quiets down and cools off
for the remainder of the extended period. High temperatures may be
in the 60s and 60s through Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 529 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds.
Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 8 knots.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 46 73 51 77 / 0 0 10 10
gck 47 77 51 79 / 0 0 10 10
eha 48 82 53 81 / 0 0 20 10
lbl 48 79 53 81 / 0 0 10 20
hys 45 72 49 76 / 0 0 10 10
p28 47 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...gerard
long term...gerard
aviation...hovorka_42

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations