Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kddc 190827
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
227 am CST Thu Jan 19 2017
..updated short and long term discussion...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 144 am CST Thu Jan 19 2017
A weak closed upper low was slowly moving moving east over the
Central High plains early this morning. With a fairly dry
atmosphere over the Central Plains, only some scattered mid and
high level cloudiness was being generated by this upper low. At
the surface, however, a low pressure trough was situated along the
Kansas/Colorado border. Light winds were present in the base of
the trough while farther east, southerly winds continue to push
increasing low level moisture into central and parts of western
Kansas. This has resulted in widespread stratus, along with some
locally dense fog on the western periphery of the stratus. The
hrrr and rap13 along with the 00z NAM were all showing widespread
dense fog across the area. It appears that the stratus has been
helping keep the dense fog at Bay across much of the area. Clear
skies and colder temperatures are helping radiate out the boundary
layer in the area from Syracuse and Lakin to Hugoton and dense fog
has been developing. Will issue a dense fog advisory for that area
for now and expand it east later if necessary.
For the rest of today, the fog should dissipate by late morning
but stratus will probably linger through much of the day in areas
north and east of Garden City and Dodge City. This will likely
keep highs in the 40s in these areas with low to mid 50s expected
farther west toward the Colorado border. Tonight will be mostly
clear to partly cloudy with some patchy fog possible over central
into parts of southwest Kansas.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 144 am CST Thu Jan 19 2017
The upper low over the area this morning lifts off to the north
and east on Friday while another shortwave trough moves out of the
central rockies into Kansas. This system could generate a few
light rainshowers over northern and western sections of the
forecast area Friday afternoon.
Satellite imagery and model output show a strong upper level jet over
the eastern Pacific moving toward western North America. The GFS and
European model (ecmwf) show this jet propagating into the Desert Southwest and eventually
the Southern Plains by Saturday. The models have been fairly consistent
in moving a shortwave trough out toward West Texas and then developing
an upper low over the panhandles late Saturday. This system may bring
some scattered light rainshowers to the area generally south of Highway
50 Saturday evening.
Sunday and Monday should be mild and dry as a shortwave ridge
moves over the central Continental U.S.. another strong upper trough/closed
low moves out over the central Continental U.S. On Tuesday. This system will
bring a better push of cold air into western Kansas on Tuesday.
The track of the upper low is not real favorable for precipitation
across southwest Kansas (i.E. Tracking over northern Kansas and
southern nebraska). The latest superblend iteration continues to
bring some chance pops for light rain and snow so will keep that
trend going for now. Later periods in the extended look to be
turning colder again as the upper flow becomes more amplified with
a strong ridge along the West Coast and northerly upper level flow
from Canada into the central Continental U.S..
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017
Low level moisture spreading into central and western Kansas will
result in LIFR ceilings late this evening into Thursday. In addition,
MVFR vsbys are expected to deteriorate to IFR or possibly LIFR toward
sunrise Thursday and continue into the morning hours before improving.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 48 33 52 30 / 10 10 10 10
gck 47 29 49 26 / 10 10 20 10
eha 55 29 53 28 / 0 10 10 0
lbl 53 31 55 27 / 0 10 10 0
hys 45 35 46 31 / 10 10 30 20
p28 51 37 56 32 / 10 10 10 0
dense fog advisory until 10 am CST /9 am MST/ this morning for