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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
745 am CDT Monday Aug 29 2016

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 301 am CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Subtle upper level waves embedded in a southerly tropical flow
will cross western Kansas today and tonight as they rotate around
an upper level ridge axis that will be located over the mid
Mississippi Valley. Any one of this disturbances could easily
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time
confidence is not high that any model has a good handle on where
and when the convection will develop later today so will stay
fairly general on precipitation chances this afternoon and
tonight. Very heavy rainfall still appears to be the main hazard
from these storms.

For early today...the latest radar loop indicating a few
thunderstorms were already developing along the I-70 corridor and
another area of storms were increasing in coverage just west of
the Colorado border. Given this along with the latest NAM and hrrr
suggesting that convection will either develop or move into
western Kansas through through daybreak will lean towards
following the general solutions of these models for the first 6 to
9 hours.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 301 am CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a tropical air mass
will continue Tuesday as the upper level ridge axis shifts
westward into western Oklahoma and the upper low, located near The
Four Corners region at 00z Monday, slowly moves east northeast
across northern New Mexico. At this time given the poor
performance on timing and track of the upper waves and storm
initiation over the past the last few days beyond 12 hours
confidence is low on exactly where and when the better chances for
precipitation will occur so will stay close to persistence through
mid week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 742 am CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Focus today will be on scattered nature of moderate to locally
heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms. The models intent
on activity lasting on and off though the day and into the late
afternoon, so predictability for timing any one terminal will be
difficult at best.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 83 65 84 64 / 40 40 50 50
gck 82 63 82 63 / 40 40 40 50
eha 80 62 81 62 / 50 40 40 60
lbl 82 63 82 63 / 50 50 40 60
hys 83 65 81 64 / 40 40 50 50
p28 87 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 50


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...none.



Short term...burgert
long term...burgert

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