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fxus63 kddc 262004 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
204 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

..updated discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 212 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Another day of quiet weather across southwest Kansas. Visible satellite
imagery only shows some high clouds over far southeast Barber County.
A fairly weak pressure gradient continues across the region and winds
are fairly weak for southwest Kansas standards. For tonight, the tranquil
weather pattern will continue. Zonal flow aloft will continue through
Monday. The net result is High Plains Lee troughing. With the tighter
pressure gradient, the winds will be a little stronger Monday than
compared to today. Warmer temperatures are also expected across far
southwest Kansas with the warm air advection pattern. There will be
elevated fire weather concerns basically southwest of a line from Scott
City, Kansas to Ashland, Kansas. Outdoor burning is discouraged tomorrow. Otherwise,
highs tomorrow will range from upper 60s by Elkhart, Kansas to around 60f
to the north by i70.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 212 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

On Tuesday, a cold front will move through. There will quite the temperature
gradient across the region with only 50s to the north and 70s along
the Oklahoma border. Another day of elevated fire weather conditions
are possible on Tuesday. However, the worst may be located south of
the forecast district and into the panhandles. The timing of the front
will determine this. Regardless, it will be breezy or even windy behind
the front and have gone with higher speeds after coordinating with
weather forecast office neighbors. For precipitation, deep boundary layer moisture will
have been shunted off well the southeast, so significant precip is
not expected. Rain and snow with light amounts are forecast. Beyond
this, near normal temperatures and a dry forecast is expected Wed.
Highs will moderate to above normal by next weekend. Long range models
still show a quiet weather pattern through the second week of March.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1100 am CST sun Feb 26 2017

VFR is expected through taf pd. Some mid level clouds will be possible
tomorrow morning, but cigs should still be VFR. Low level wind shear could be possible
for kgck overnight, where 850-hpa winds are forecast to be the strongest.
Winds will be NE/north today and eventually veer east/southeast by this evening.
Magnitudes in the 5 to 15 kt range.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 24 65 39 62 / 0 10 0 20
gck 22 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 20
eha 27 64 39 63 / 0 0 0 20
lbl 26 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 20
hys 24 59 35 54 / 0 0 0 10
p28 30 63 43 71 / 0 20 0 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

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