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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
200 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

..update to long term...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 100 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Dry conditions will persist across the western High Plains today as
short range models show upper level ridging shifting slowly east
across the Desert Southwest into the South Plains. A weakening flow
aloft and a lack of moisture in the low/mid levels will contribute
to a dry forecast across western Kansas through Friday night. Warmer
temperatures are likely today as prevailing southerlies across western
Kansas help draw warmer air northward into the state. The NAM and GFS
show 850 mb temperatures ranging from the upper teens(c) across central
Kansas to a little above 20c closer to the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, look for highs up into the 70s(f) this afternoon. Temperatures
will remain well above freezing Friday night with lows generally
in the 40s(f).

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 200 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Drier conditions will persist across western Kansas through early
next week as medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging
building northward as it moves eastward across the central and
southern rockies into the western High Plains. Even as some low
level moisture begins lifting northward into western Kansas early
in the period, a weak flow aloft and a lack of instability will
hinder precip chances across western Kansas through at least Monday
night. A warming trend will continue through Saturday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge moves out of The Rockies into
the western High Plains. A southerly flow in the lower levels
will help enhance warm air advection into western Kansas with 850 mb
temperatures around to a little above 20c across much of western
Kansas late in the day. Highs can be expected to reach the 80s(f)
across west central, southwest, and much of central Kansas Saturday
afternoon. Highs will drop off a bit Sunday as a weak cold front is
projected to push through western Kansas early Sunday. Slightly
cooler air will filter southward into western Kansas resulting in
high temperatures only up into the 70s(f) across west central and
central Kansas with the lower 80s(f) still possible closer to the
Oklahoma border. The above normal temperatures are expected to
continue through the middle part of next week with upper level
ridging remaining across the region.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1207 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through early Friday
evening. Light southeasterly winds will develop across western
Kansas overnight as surface high pressure shifts eastward across
the Central Plains. Winds will turn more southerly while increasing
15 to 25kt late Friday morning as a developing Lee side trough of
low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado during the day.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 39 73 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
gck 36 75 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
eha 38 77 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 36 75 41 85 / 0 0 0 0
hys 38 70 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
p28 42 70 44 80 / 0 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
frost advisory until 8 am CDT /7 am MDT/ this morning for ksz043-



Short term...jjohnson
long term...jjohnson

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