Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kdtx 261952
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
352 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017
Temperatures once again reached 90 degrees across most of southern
Michigan this afternoon with several hitting 91 thus far. Today will end
the record heat wave as a cold front will sweep through Wednesday
morning finally pushing the dominate ridge south and east out of the
area. The front will bring a very small chance of rain late tonight
into Wednesday morning. It will also drop high temperatures by about
20 degrees with temps likely failing to hit 70 Thursday through
The developing low over western Upper Michigan will continue to deepen
slightly while lifting NE on the nose of the strengthening 850mb low
level jet. The front becomes more progressive toward Wednesday
morning as a strong upper level jetlet ejects out of the base of the
trough through the plains and into the region and the next lobe of
vorticity rotates around the upper low over central Canada. While the
wind shift sweep through around 09-12z Wednesday, the surface front
will lag a few hours behind, with the actual cold advection holding
off further yet toward til after 18z.
Rain chances tonight as still looking bleak as commented on by
previous forecasters, but still exists tonight. There will be a few
hour window mainly between 09-14z where the passing prefrontal band
could ignite a few showers. As mentioned, the low and related
forcing will be lifting NE low level jet should stay north and west
of the local area. Fropa at the diurnal minimum will not help its
cause with cape only forecast to be a couple hundred j/kg Max.
Narrow corridor of Theta E ahead of the front. All in all expect a
few showers, or a scattered line, moving through northern Michigan
possibly extending south to fnt. Chance or slight chance pops will
cover The Thumb north of about I-69.
The frontal timing and late push with colder air will allow the
Detroit area to reach near 80 degrees Wednesday before temps start
to fall. Conversely, with the early frontal timing to the NE, expect
locations north of ptk to stay in the 70s. 850mb temps will fall
from the current 17-18c today, down into the low single digits by
Thursday. Broad troughing aloft along with surface high pressure
sliding in keeping cool northerly flow, will keep high temperatures
likely in the 60s for all locations Thursday.
A potent upper level wave will drop through the region on Friday
bringing a chance for showers throughout the day along with a
reinforcing shot of cool air as 850 mb temperatures will remain from
3 to 5 c through much of the weekend. While surface high pressure
and ridging building into the region on Saturday will bring mostly
sunny skies, the aforementioned cooler air mass will limit highs to
the lower to mid 60s on Saturday. With high pressure centered over
the region on Saturday night, outlying areas will have the potential
to see low temperatures dropping into the upper 30s.
As the ridge axis and surface high pressure moves eastward Sunday
into Monday, increasing southwesterly flow will advect warmer air
into the region as highs reach the mid to upper 60s on Sunday and
low to mid 70s on Monday. Another wave will bring the potential for
showers late Monday into Tuesday before stronger ridging looks to
build into the region keeping above normal temperatures in place
into next week.
Pattern change will occur over the central Great Lakes during the
next 24 hours as a cold front pushes through the region. Scattered
shower and thunderstorms will be possible over the Northern Lake
Huron basin later tonight, but chances will lower appreciably in
closer proximity to southeastern Michigan. Strengthening gradient
winds are expected to push across the far Northern Lake Huron basin,
where west to northwest winds of 30 knots are likely. Cold advection
and unstable conditions will allow significant wave heights to
increase greater than 5 ft for much of the nearshore waters of Lake
Huron. Small craft advisories have been issued Wednesday for outer
Saginaw Bay and nearshore waters of Lake Huron from Port Austin
southward to Port Huron. High pressure will settle over the region
Thursday followed quickly by another low pressure system and cold
front due Friday. This system will bring a reinforcement of colder
air and unstable marine conditions Friday and Friday night before
rapid improvement occurs with high pressure during the weekend.
issued at 202 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017
Upper level ridging will hold for another 12 to 18 hours across
southeastern Michigan before a cold front finally pushes across the
area. Until then, looking at persistence of VFR conditions with weak
southwesterly winds. The wind shift is expected to push across the
area in the 09-12z timeframe with the cold front itself likely
lagged. The advent of cold advection may lead to a period of MVFR
and potential IFR with a high likelihood for dry conditions along
For dtw... VFR through much of tonight with light wind. There
uncertainty regarding overall likelihood for MVFR and IFR Post wind
shift or cold front at 11z. Feeling is still higher confidence for
MVFR by the late morning.
//Dtw threshold probabilities...
* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less but not until late Wednesday
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.