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afdeax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 am CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Discussion...
issued at 332 am CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A relatively stagnant upper low centered over the Oklahoma and
Kansas border will be slow to move today before a deepening trough
upstream finally pushes the storm system northeast by this
afternoon. While most of the moisture being advected northward
ahead of the surface low will be limited to areas well east of the
forecast area, some of this will be wrapped around the surface
low with resulting showers possible across the area today. Dense
stratus, mostly confined beneath 10kft, will limit the
availability of surface instability across the entire forecast
area. Marginal elevated instability will present at least a chance
of an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon, though no
severe weather is anticipated.

Persistent dewpoint values, rain chances, and extensive cloud cover
will moderate afternoon highs for most areas today. Expecting values
ranging from the upper 40s across northwest Missouri, to the
lower 60s across central Missouri, where weak warm advection will
persist. By the end of the day, additional rain totals will
approach between a quarter to half an inch. Overnight lows will
also be moderated, though slightly cooler than the previous night
with weak caa, dropping into lower to mid 40s.

A weak shortwave will traverse the region late Sunday night into
Monday, bringing the next chance of precipitation during a fairly
unsettled pattern next week. The most favored areas for
precipitation Sunday into Monday will be limited to those south
of I-70, as the surface low treks much further south compared to
the previous system. Rain totals will remain below half an inch
given the brevity of the activity. More widespread rain chances
will commence as early as Wednesday and persist through the late
week as a more notable upper low lifts northeast out of the
southwestern Continental U.S.. both the temporal and spatial track of the
surface low remains somewhat uncertain at this point, but models
continue to suggest widespread precipitation through the late
week. Temperatures throughout the next week will be comfortable at
or near seasonal values, and multiple chances of rain will
provide some relief for the recent dry trend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 626 am CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Ceilings and visibilities will rapidly diminish to IFR to perhaps
LIFR through the early morning hours as low level moisture is
drawn over the terminals. Off and on light to moderate rain is
possible this morning before tapering off by the evening hours.
Most of this activity will remain just outside the terminals,
however. As precip tapers off this evening, ceilings will likely
reduce once again, possibly to IFR depending on the amount of low
level moisture present, in addition to the amount of nearby soil
saturation.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

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