Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A quieter afternoon for much of the area so far with much weaker
forcing for thunderstorms than we've seen the last few days. While
this should generally remain the case overnight, the airmass remains
very unstable and uncapped so it wouldn't take much to spark off a
few showers or storms later this afternoon or this evening. The most
likely area to see any such activity looks to be across east central
Kansas into western MO near the Missouri River where a congested cumulus
field can be seen bubbling up along and just south of a subtle
surface boundary. It's possible that a few storms could pop up along
this feature over the next few hours as a very weak wave comes out of
central Kansas. Shear is very weak so any storms that do develop should
be unorganized with brief downpours and some lightning the main
threats. The lack of organized forcing and shear should prevent rain
on a large enough scale that would cause any additional flooding
problems this evening.

Sunday will be similar to today with an unstable airmass developing
by afternoon but no defined forcing mechanism to focus any organized
thunderstorm activity. Will therefore maintain 20-30 percent pops for
the afternoon when isolated storms could again pop up, but again no
signal is in place for any heavy rain or flooding concerns at this

Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday as the
upper ridge in place begins to break down a bit and allows a stream
of weak upper waves to pass to our north. This will set the stage for
more widespread rainfall particularly by weds and thurs when a weak
front will slide in from the northeast. Increasing deep-layer
moisture could favor some pockets of heavy rain by this time,
although for now there's not any clear signal that a heavy rain event
will set up next week.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Cumulus field developing over eastern Kansas/western MO may initially
have some bases between 2000 and 3000 feet but should eventually lift
to VFR this afternoon. There's a small chance a weak/brief shower or
storm could develop within this developing cumulus field, but better
chances are across central MO. Therefore removed thunderstorms in the vicinity wording for kc
area tafs where storm chances are only 20 percent or less. Additional
showers/storms possible Sunday morning, but uncertainty is too high
to include in tafs at this time.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations