Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 231104
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 am CDT Wed may 23 2018
issued at 308 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2018
Main update for today is the addition of some isolated storms this
afternoon, mainly in eastern Kansas and the western third of MO. Un-
capped instability will develop in an area of enhanced 700 hpa
moisture, similar to the environment across southeast Kansas/northeast
OK yesterday that spawned isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Storm
coverage will be very limited, and severe weather is not expected.
The rest of the forecast remains similar: unseasonably warm and
primarily dry. Currently, the best chance of precipitation will
arrive Friday or Friday night as a weak cold front pushes through
the region; however with the main upper support well off to the
northeast and little convergence, storm coverage, intensity and
longevity will be limited. In fact, despite the wind shift,
temperatures will actually increase behind the "fropa" for
Saturday and Sunday as the upper ridge surges eastward and flow
quickly returns to the south.
Early next week, the tropical system progged to lift into the
southeast US remains possible, but its impacts and precipitation
appear to remain south of the County Warning Area at least through the forecast
period. Models differ in its eventual track by later next week,
but in the good news department, regardless of the system's
eventual progression, it does not appear that system will have an
impact on the Holiday weekend for our area.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 604 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2018
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few
isolated showers or storms may pop up this afternoon in the
vicinity of the taf sites, but coverage will be too limited to
warrant a mention in the tafs. Diurnal cu with scattered to broken
coverage will be more widespread, but bases will stay above 3 kft.
Winds will remain out of the southeast to south, at speeds of 10
kts or less.