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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1153 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017

Update...
squall line currently moving across the I-35 corridor area. Have
expanded the watch for counties east of I-35 and extended it through
1 am. Have cancelled the other counties from the watch. The line will
continue to track to the east overnight. Meanwhile, other showers and
thunderstorms are developing south to near Laredo and tracking to the
northeast. These will impact areas along and east of I-35 during the
overnight hours also. Expect they will be sub severe, however moving
over areas with the ongoing heavy rains, may cause some minor
flooding. Remainder of forecast on track.

&&

Aviation...
have mentioned thunderstorms and rain at the I-35 taf sites through 08z with IFR/MVFR
vsbys and wind gusts up to 45 kts. Thunderstorms and rain will continue mainly along
and east of I-35 overnight into early morning with rain showers at the I-35
taf sites. Cigs rise to VFR with passage of the thunderstorms and rain and then gradual
clearing takes place on Tuesday. Nwly winds of 5 to 10 kts prevail in
the wake of the thunderstorms and rain.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 641 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017/

Mesoscale update...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35 has been issued for the western half of
the area and at this time does not include the Austin or San Antonio
Metro area. A band of showers and thunderstorms have developed
across Edwards, Maverick, and Kinney County. This activity has
developed along a dryline with substantial surface moisture
convergence along the boundary. SBCAPE values near 2000 j/kg and
effective bulk shear vales around 60 knots will continue to support
the chances for severe convection with hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and gusty winds. We still continue to expect this activity
to transition more into a locally heavy rain threat overnight as the
storms congeal into more of a solid line of convection due to shear
vectors lining up nearly parallel to the dryline.

The line of showers and storms should then move east as upper
support from a strong shortwave to our west continues to slowly move
east. Still expecting rainfall totals to be on average 1-2 inches but
some isolated locations will approach 5 inches and could produce
some localized flooding concerns. Radar estimates so far this evening
are showing up to 3 inches of rain across portions of Kinney County
where a flood advisory is currently in effect.

Increased pops across the area where storms are developing and made
some other minor adjustments to the hourly grids based on current
trends. All updated products have been issued.

Previous discussion... /issued 608 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017/

Update...
please see the 00z aviation forecast discussion below.

Aviation...
little change in the forecast has been made. We did update trends for
the first few hours based on recent radar trends. Otherwise, the
main concern continues to be focused on thunderstorm activity late
this evening into early Monday morning. Minor changes to the onset
of thunderstorms and rain based on the latest hi-res model guidance and radar trends as
mentioned above. We should see a decrease in thunderstorms between
09z-12z at our taf sites as the main line of storms moves east.
Showers will remain in the forecast until mid-morning, then
improving conditions are in store for late morning and the afternoon.

Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017/

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
latest water vapor images show a long-wave upper level trough
axis extending from the intermountain west southeast into The
Four Corners region. This feature is forecast to split this
evening...sending the southern portion of the main trough/short-wave
across northeast Mexico and into our area overnight. At the surface,
a dry-line located across the extreme northwest Val Verde County as
of this writing, is expected to push further west. With that in main
and expected convection along and east of I-35 later tonight, Storm Prediction Center day
1 convective outlook has been updated and now covers most area with
slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

Dfx radar is already picking up light to moderate rain-showers along
the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas. This trend is expected to
increase as the upper level short-wave moves to the east this
evening. A hand-full of hires models agree on scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the Rio Grande later this afternoon
with widespread convection forming early this evening into the
overnight hours. By early this evening, increased instability and
with capping inversion eroding, expect storms to rapidly become
strong to severe. As the night progresses, the severe weather risk
diminishes and transition into a heavy rain event with isolated
strong storms mainly along and east of I-35.

Overall situation from early this evening into the overnight hours
is as follow: strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across most
areas across south central Texas (exception extreme northwest and e).
Primary threats will be wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to
one inch in diameter. Also, heavy rain is expected as the storms move
along and east of Highway 281 due to the fact of well above
precipitable water values (1.4 to 1.7 inches). That said, storm total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with isolated pockets
of 4 to 5 inches mainly along and east of I-35.

The dry-line moves back to the east Monday morning with clearing
expected to begin out west and then into the I-35 corridor by noon
Monday. Since the upper level trough/cutoff low could be right on top
of US during the afternoon hours, decided to keep slight chances
for showers and storms mainly east of Highway 183.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
the upper level system will continue to push to the southeast and
into the Gulf waters while ridging builds over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week for dry and pleasant weather. Dry conditions
persist into next weekend. A cold front is expected to push across
the area late Sunday into Monday and brings our next chances for rain
across the area. Temperatures will be above normal values through the
extended period even with the passage of dry front on Friday and the
wet one late Sunday into Monday of next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 62 73 53 79 52 / 100 40 - - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 71 52 78 50 / 100 50 - - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 72 53 79 51 / 100 40 - - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 58 71 49 76 48 / 100 20 - - 0
del Rio Intl Airport 55 77 50 82 48 / 20 10 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 61 71 51 77 49 / 100 40 - - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 59 74 49 81 48 / 70 20 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 62 71 53 79 51 / 100 50 - - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 64 72 55 77 53 / 100 60 10 10 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 61 73 53 79 52 / 100 30 - - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 62 73 54 79 52 / 100 30 - - 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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