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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
656 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016

solar heating and outflow boundaries main forcing for shra/tsra.
Expect decrease in coverage this evening into the overnight and
redevelopment on Wednesday. Radars show -ra passing over kdrt.
Otherwise, have no mention in tafs. Will monitor radar and model
trends for any updates to mention. VFR skies prevail tonight
through Wednesday evening. Patches of stratus with IFR/MVFR cigs
will develop late night and persist into mid morning. Best chances
are at kdrt and have mentioned MVFR cigs there. Scattered IFR/MVFR level
stratus prevails at the other sites, however they may have brief
tempo broken cigs. Weak surface pressure gradient results in winds of
less than 10 kts. However, wind gusts up to 22 kts are possible
with outflows.


Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016/

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
above normal moisture continues to remain in place with 12z raob
data showing precipitable water values just shy of 2" at drt to
near 2.5" along the middle Texas coast at crp. The latest water
vapor satellite loop also shows a mid and upper low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough located just off
the middle Texas coast is also noted. With afternoon heating, we
have seen an increase in coverage of convection today. We expect
this to continue through mid-evening, then coverage will gradually
decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Similar to the last few
days, some locally heavy rainfall is possible. However, the better
chance for heavy rain is expected to remain farther south and east
along the Texas coast. On Wednesday, the mid and upper low drifts
southwestward and the deeper moisture will begin to move south of
the region. We should still see enough moisture around to result
in mainly isolated afternoon and evening convection and will keep
rain chances mainly in the 20-30% range. Similar to today, most
activity will decrease with the loss of daytime heating.

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
for the remainder of the work week, the atmosphere will continue
to dry from north to south. Still, can't rule out some isolated
convection, but most areas should remain dry. We also expect
temperatures to increase a few degrees as cloud cover gradually
thins and mid-level heights increase slightly. The models are also
showing a weak boundary getting into northern and possible
portions of central Texas late Friday or early Saturday. This
boundary should be weak if it reaches central Texas, but could
still provide a low-level focus for shower and thunderstorms
development. As we head into early next week, a mid and upper
level high will migrate into the southern Mississippi River
valley. This will allow the southeasterly flow in the lower and
mid levels to increase. We do expect an increase in cloud cover
and a slight increase in rain chances mainly for areas along and
east of I-35. Temperatures through the forecast period should
remain fairly steady with highs generally in the low to mid 90s
and lows in the 70s.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 93 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 92 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 92 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 72 90 73 92 72 / 20 20 10 20 10
del Rio Intl Airport 73 91 75 93 75 / 40 30 20 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 91 74 92 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
Hondo Muni Airport 73 92 73 94 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 92 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 93 76 94 76 / 20 20 10 20 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 92 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 76 / 20 20 10 20 10


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...


public service/data collection...33

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