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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
333 am CDT Mon may 21 2018

Short term (today through tuesday)...
mid and upper level ridging builds slight today with little if any
forcing aloft. The airmass remains moist and with some residual
surface boundaries from Sunday and heating, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Showers and thunderstorms
developing over the serranias del burro this afternoon could move
into areas west of Highway 83 tonight. The ridge builds more
strongly on Tuesday increasing convective inhibition. Hi-res cams
models indicate a potential for showers and thunderstorms to come out
of western Texas to portions of the Rio Grande in the Val Verde
County area. Some models also show development near the coastal
plains into central Texas. Ongoing forecasts mention this and will
maintain it in this forecast.

&&

Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...
mid and upper level ridging continues through Sunday with a drying
trend and warm mid level temperatures serving to inhibit convection.
Cannot rule out very isolated showers and thunderstorms near the
coastal plains to along the Highway 77 corridor and across the lower
Pecos Valley of Val Verde County each day, however, pops are too low
to mention. The exception being, slight chance pops for eastern areas
on Saturday. A warming trend is expected with highs back around 100
along the Rio Grande Saturday and Sunday. Of note, European model (ecmwf) develops a
low pressure system at the surface and aloft over the central Gulf of
Mexico late this week, then moves it to the Sabine Pass area while
deepening it Saturday into Sunday with a trend to bringing it a
little further west with each model run. For now, any impacts would
be to maintain a dry and very warm forecast.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 87 70 90 71 91 / 30 10 10 - -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 69 90 69 91 / 30 10 10 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 69 90 69 90 / 30 10 10 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 86 68 88 68 89 / 30 10 10 - -
del Rio Intl Airport 89 71 90 72 92 / 30 30 20 - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 87 69 89 69 90 / 30 10 20 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 89 70 91 70 91 / 30 10 10 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 69 90 69 91 / 30 10 10 - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 89 70 91 71 91 / 30 10 20 - 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 88 71 90 72 91 / 30 10 10 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 89 71 92 71 91 / 30 10 10 - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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