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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
838 PM CDT Monday Sep 26 2016

Update...
convection has decreased more quickly than we previously
anticipated, so have lowered the pops for the rest of tonight.
Best chances are still across the southwestern counties.
Temperatures are already close to forecast lows, but with overcast
skies think temperatures will be steady through the night.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 720 PM CDT Monday Sep 26 2016/

Update...
please see the 00z aviation forecast discussion below.

Aviation...
MVFR cigs are firmly in place across all taf sites this evening.
Some light rain will also continue at drt for the next several
hours. For the overnight period, cigs will likely drop into IFR at
aus and Sat after 06z, with MVFR expected at the remainder of our
taf sites. As dry air filters in from the north tomorrow, cigs
should increase to MVFR at all sites. Additional improvement into
VFR is expected after 19z.

Previous discussion... /issued 232 PM CDT Monday Sep 26 2016/

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
at 2 PM the cold front was located just north of Eagle Pass to
just south of a San Antonio and La Grange. As expected isentropic
ascent has weakened behind the front. Deeper convection through
the afternoon and early evening will be confined along and ahead
of the cold front across the southern cwa, where low level forcing
and instability is maximized. Some localized heavy downpours may
occur with these storms, but flash flood guidance is much higher
in this region. This activity should shift south into the crp County Warning Area
this evening with the front, with just a few elevated showers
possible tonight behind the front across the ewx County Warning Area.

Cloud cover lingers through much of the day on Tuesday with
clearing eventually taking place Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday.

Long term (wednesday through monday)...
warming Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s, as ridging aloft
builds overhead. A dry cold front is forecast to move through the
area on Thursday. Dry air behind the front will send dew points
down into the upper 40s and 50s, resulting in cool mornings Friday
into the first half of the weekend. Lows in the 50s to low 60s and
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are forecast Friday and Saturday.
Return flow become established Sunday with modifying dew points
and warming temps Sunday into Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 65 80 63 86 64 / 20 10 - 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 80 61 86 61 / 20 10 - 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 81 63 87 63 / 20 10 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 61 77 59 84 60 / 20 10 - 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 62 77 63 84 66 / 20 20 - - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 63 79 60 85 60 / 20 10 - 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 64 82 63 87 64 / 20 10 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 64 79 62 86 63 / 20 10 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 68 83 65 87 64 / 20 10 - 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 65 80 65 86 65 / 20 10 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 67 82 66 88 66 / 20 10 - 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...24
synoptic/grids...05
public service/data collection...30

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