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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening at all area airports.
Gusty winds from the southeast will decrease around sunset. MVFR cigs
will develop overnight all terminals starting in Austin and San
Antonio and spreading to drt. Improvement to VFR will be during the
late morning.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
so far this afternoon convection has been limited to deep south
Texas. A few of the hi resolution models along with the GFS hint at
some further northward development through south Texas into the
southern County Warning Area early this evening before sunset, in axis of better
moisture and peak heating that could overcome weak mid level stable
layer. Confidence in the is low and therefore have a silent 10 pop
in the grids for early this evening across southern areas.

Tomorrow very low pops will be confined to the southeast counties,
with the main story being the heat. Temperatures near or a degree
warmer tomorrow compared to today. Heat index values outside of The
Hill Country will again peak in the 104-108 degree range, with
possibly a few more locations east of I-35 and I-37 briefly hitting
108-110. Will allow the next forecast package tonight to better
assess heat advisory potential for Wednesday and continue with the
strongly worded Special Weather Statement and severe weather potential statement on this package.

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
ridging will dominate Thursday and Friday with hot and dry
conditions. Slightly lower dew points but warmer temperatures offset
and continue the 104-108 degree heat indices. The actual air
temperature could approach heat advisory criteria in some spots
Thursday through Saturday.

The ridge looks to amplify over The Rockies during the weekend and
into early next week with a downstream trough digging across the
eastern U.S. A weakness and moisture pool looks to slide beneath the
ridge from northeast to southwest into the forecast area along with
an associated backdoor cold front. This looks to allow for slightly
cooler temperatures Sunday through Tuesday and some opportunities for
rainfall. There are some differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) on
timing and placement quantitative precipitation forecast. Mesoscale boundaries that are hard to time
this far out will also likely play a role. For this reason have
generally broad brushed low 20-30 pops Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 100 76 101 77 / 10 10 10 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 100 76 101 76 / 10 10 10 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 100 75 101 75 / 10 10 10 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 75 97 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 78 101 78 103 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 78 98 76 100 77 / 10 10 10 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 74 102 74 / 10 10 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 78 100 76 101 75 / 10 10 - - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 78 99 76 101 76 / 10 20 - 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 101 77 101 77 / 10 10 10 - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 76 101 76 / 10 10 10 - 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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