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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1053 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Update...
06z aviation forecast below.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions over the next 24-36 hours with scattered-broken high cirrus
across southeast half of the region. Winds variable 5 kts or less
overnight and becoming NE to east 5-10 kts after 15z at Sat/aus and southeast
around 10 kts with a few higher gusts possible at drt after 18z.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 228 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
a dry atmosphere continues to be in place across south-central Texas
this afternoon with dewpoints in the 10-20 degree range. Temperatures
have warmed up into the 60s across much of the area and this is
leading to humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range. Otherwise,
light winds continue with passing high clouds over the area. For
tonight, dry air, light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s with another freeze
expected for The Hill Country and low-lying areas along the I-35
corridor. For tomorrow, light east/northeast flow will continue and
highs will remain close to today's values, in the 60s across the
region. For tomorrow night, another night in the 30s is once again
expected.

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
south flow will finally return Thursday as a shortwave approaches the
plains. This will allow for low-level moisture to begin to increase
and lows Thursday night will only be in the 40s to near 50 degrees.
As the low-level moisture increases, Theta-E advection will lead to
low chances of light rain showers for the eastern two-thirds of the
area Thursday night and Friday. On Friday afternoon, a large trough
axis will push the northern plains and this will send a cold front
south into the region Saturday afternoon. This front will keep the
chances for rain around and weak instability levels could lead to a
few thunderstorms as the front moves through in the afternoon hours.
There still remains differences between the GFS/European model (ecmwf) on the
strength of the cold front. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be stronger with
the front and clears things out pretty quick while the GFS is a bit
weaker. The GFS has slightly trended towards the European model (ecmwf) and will
continue to favor that solution in the official forecast.
Temperatures on Sunday/Monday will remain in the 60s with lows in the
30s and 40s. South flow should return Tuesday, leading to
temperatures being a few degrees warmer.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 37 63 38 64 49 / 0 0 0 - 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 30 62 32 63 47 / 0 0 0 - 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 33 63 35 62 47 / 0 0 0 - 20
Burnet Muni Airport 32 61 35 61 47 / 0 0 0 - 20
del Rio Intl Airport 36 64 39 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 30 62 33 62 47 / 0 0 0 - 20
Hondo Muni Airport 32 65 33 62 47 / 0 0 0 - 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 34 63 34 62 48 / 0 0 0 - 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 36 63 37 64 50 / 0 0 0 - 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 35 64 37 62 51 / 0 0 0 - 20
Stinson Muni Airport 37 65 37 63 50 / 0 0 0 - 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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