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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
643 am CDT Monday Aug 29 2016

Aviation... /12z tafs/

Low to mid level cyclonic winds have picked up early this morning
as a low pressure system drifts southwest along the Texas coast. This
has altered prevailing wind directions, but most winds are
expected to remain below 12 knots. Scattered showers generally
east of Hwy 281 have picked up speed to around 15 mph so the
influence over I-35 terminals has shifted forward for early in the
forecast period. Some IFR cigs is adjacent to the showers near
aus, but slightly higher cigs in the MVFR category are expected
around San Antonio. Most of the heavier downpours and possible
thunderstorms are expected to be brief so will keep vsch around
Sat/ssf while slightly higher pwat values near aus could support
more deep convection. Out west, drt is expected to see late
morning showers from a West Texas/nrn Mexico disturbance. VFR skies
are projected for much of this afternoon and evening, but
increased stability and cigs down to IFR are expected to form
after midnight over I-35 taf sites.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 343 am CDT Monday Aug 29 2016/

Short term (today through tuesday)...
an upper level low meandering over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
and Texas coastal areas will bring slightly above normal moisture
to south central Texas today through Tuesday. Daytime heating will
be the main forcing mechanism with outflow boundaries maintaining
them into the evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
in the morning, become scattered in the afternoon, and dissipate
by late evening. Locally heavy rains are possible due to the above
normal moisture (pws of 1.8 to 2.2 inches) and expected slow storm
motions. Wind gusts up to around 30 mph are possible near the
stronger storms due to moderate dcape.

Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...
upper level low rapidly dissipates Wednesday with weak ridging at
the surface and aloft over south central Texas through the Labor
Day weekend. Decreasing moisture levels leads to only isolated
daytime showers and thunderstorms. Tropical depression 9, possible
storm is not expected to have an impact on south central Texas as
its forecast track is across the northern part of the Florida
Peninsula. However, a weak front possibly drifting into central
Texas may continue the isolated showers and thunderstorms this
weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 90 73 91 74 92 / 50 30 40 20 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 73 90 74 92 / 50 30 40 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 72 90 73 92 / 50 30 40 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 88 72 88 72 90 / 40 30 40 20 20
del Rio Intl Airport 91 74 90 74 91 / 50 40 40 40 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 88 73 89 73 91 / 50 30 40 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 90 73 90 73 92 / 40 30 40 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 73 89 73 92 / 50 30 40 20 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 89 74 90 75 93 / 50 30 40 20 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 90 73 89 74 92 / 50 30 40 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 91 74 90 75 92 / 50 30 40 20 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Oaks
synoptic/grids...04

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