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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
441 am CDT sun Apr 23 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 441 am CDT sun Apr 23 2017

This morning the frontal boundary has moved south into South
Dakota, but additional mid level forcing will continue development
of rain/snow banding through the mid section of the forecast area
near Highway 2 to Interstate 94 this morning. While this forcing
becomes more intense this morning in that mid section, low level
dry air moving in from the north will counteract this, keeping
light to moderate intensity with coverage as a main band with
some scattered around it. This will likely result in an additional
inch or two of snow, but impacts will depend on whether this is
locally accumulating or melting as it reaches the ground. As the
relatively warm layer aloft remains near to below freezing this
morning, precipitation type will continue to remain a rain/snow
mix, locally dependent on low level moisture and temperatures.
Around mid day, expect rain/snow to taper off for a few hours then
gradually transition to light rain for the afternoon.

As mid level forcing works northward from the mid section of the
forecast area tonight and temperatures drop to near to below
freezing again, rain/snow mix will develop in the evening in north
of Highway 2, gradually turning to snow overnight. In the southern
half of the forecast area, rain will develop as forcing and
moisture supply increase as a result of an approaching system.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 441 am CDT sun Apr 23 2017

On Monday, a surface low moves east from central South Dakota
toward central Minnesota, bringing in stronger moisture content
and better forcing. As warmer air moves north through the Red
River valley Monday, most areas will see rain, and snow occuring in
most northern locations will transition to rain. Areas along and
south of Highway 2 will see mainly rain Monday with perhaps some
snow on the back side of the system late Monday night. Total
rainfall for those southern locations will be around a quarter of
an inch. The northward advance of warm air Monday will play a big
factor in terms of impacts for counties adjacent to the Canadian
border. If temperatures at these northernmost locations cannot
rise above freezing, moderate to heavy snow could be an issue as
liquid total amounts are expected to be one to three quarters of
an inch. At this point, this area will likely see an inch or two
of snow total from Sunday night to Monday night. However there is
potential for a narrow band of significantly heavier snow
especially near the Lake of The Woods area on Monday and Monday
night where temperatures will likely remain near or just below
freezing.

Tuesday through Saturday night will be cooler than end of April
normals with minimal impactful weather occurring. 500mb flow across
the Continental U.S. Will keep the main storm track south of the northern
plains with broad scale trough slowly progressing across the middle
of the country. Evolution of the 500mb trough varies in model
guidance with timing and intensity differences on the track of the
surface lows across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. As a result
light precip is possible across the far eastern areas Wednesday and
Thursday if northern members of the guidance verify. Otherwise surface
high pressure over Ontario will bring cool and dry northeasterly
winds across the area for much of the week. Highs will be in the 40s
gradually moderating into the low 50s by Friday and Saturday. Slight
chance for precipitation returns by Saturday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Areas of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in light rain and snow along and
north of a dvl-gaf-bde line will steadily spread southward across
the gfk-tvf area by 02z and down across the Highway 200 corridor
and bji by 04z. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings and areas IFR visibilities
in light snow throughout this area from 05z through 13z... with
snow diminishing along the north border after 13z. Expect areas of
MVFR ceilings in very light snow mainly along the Highway 2 after 13z.

Further south...expect widespread MVFR ceilings and patchy MVFR visibilities
in light rain and snow spreading south of the Highway 200
corridor after 06z...but holding generally along and north of the
Highway 10 corridor through 13z. After 13z expect improving
conditions from the south.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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