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000 
FXUS63 KFGF 291727
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Tweaked cloud cover a bit as some cirrus has been moving into the
northwestern counties. Otherwise we still seem on track for
topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s with plenty of daytime
heating left. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The main forecast challenge will be the strong weather system for
later Sunday through Monday. Until then, looking at fairly quiet
weather. For today there should be abundant sunshine with just
some thin cirrus around. Temps have responded well the past couple
of days to the strong sunshine, so went with the higher end of 
temp guidance for today. The Central Plains surface low organizes
over Kansas by 12z Sunday, bringing a little bit more cloud cover
to the southern FA tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

With more cloud cover across the south and southeast FA on Sunday,
highs will be warmest to the north and northwest. Models seem a
little faster on bringing in some light rain to west central
Minnesota Sunday afternoon. More substantial pcpn moves in by 
Sunday Night, with the ECMWF showing the most, but similar to the 
GFS in where it falls. By 12z Monday, this would be south of a 
line from Lake of the Woods to Buxton to Valley City. Coolest 
925mb temps are restricted mainly to west central MN, which 
continue into Monday morning as well. Latest WPC snowmap shows 
the potential for more than 4 inches from Elbow Lake to Park 
Rapids. GEFS ensembles show a potential for even more in this 
area, but confidence is not as high in exactly where it could 
fall. With our latest snowfall events, narrowing down where the 
heavier bands set up have not occurred until closer to the event.
After coordinating with neighboring offices, have elected to hold
off on any headlines for now. Any remaining pcpn should exit off 
to the east Monday night.

For Tuesday through Friday...a couple of weak 500 mb short waves 
will move across the area once the large upper low has moved east. 
This has been a consistent signal in all the models and worthy of 
keeping low chance pops for rain showers.  Warming up late week as a 
500 mb ridge moves in.  GFS MOS temps for Thu/Fri are showing lower 
70s in E ND vs the blended model soln of 65-70.  Either way back to 
more normal spring/early May weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

All sites are VFR with some cirrus moving across the area. KDVL
has been seeing some reduced vis with HZ at times but web cams
seem good and visibilities are back up so will leave out for now.
Increasing high clouds but all sites will be VFR through the end
of the period. Winds will be light and variable at some places, or
out of the southeast at less than 8 kts. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

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