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000 
FXUS63 KFGF 191737
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

No changes for the mid day update. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds turn southerly today at 10-20kts. Some high clouds present
today, but another warm one as 850 mb temps climb back to the +16
to +18C range. This good for upper 60s to upper 70s across the
area. Some high clouds tonight with a south wind keeping temps
mild. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A building upper level ridge moves to the east of the area Friday 
with a deepening upper trough moving into the Pacific 
Northwest/Great Basin region. In response, a developing surface low 
in the western Canadian Prairies will draw up moisture from the south 
as well as create strong warm air advection over the Northern 
Plains. This will lead to well above average temperatures for the 
area with highs in the mid to upper 70s common on Friday. Gusty 
southerly winds will also be noted Friday during the day, especially 
in the Red River Valley, with gusts into the 25-35 mph range. The 
upper trough moves eastward along with the deepening surface low 
into central Manitoba. A trailing cold front will sweep through the 
area Saturday utilizing the fresh moisture that has moved into over 
the area bringing precipitation chances. There still remains some 
disagreement on the timing of this cold front as well as the amount 
of moisture that moves into the area causing some discrepancy in 
location/amount of rainfall, however guidance suggests locations 
within Minnesota have better chances of seeing rainfall late 
Saturday. 

The cold front quickly moves through the area with cooler 
temperatures expected Sunday, albeit still above normal. On Monday, 
an amplifying trough over the central United States will provide 
additional precipitation chances Monday, possibly into Tuesday. 
Guidance starts to differ greatly with the development of this 
pattern, with the ECMWF solution developing a deep low over the 
western Great Lakes and GFS/CMC keeping more of an elongated surface 
low and upper trough over the Ohio Valley into southern Ontario. All 
solutions suggest another vigorous short wave approaching moving out 
of central Canada into the Upper Midwest, although confidence of 
precipitation development with this system is quite low.

With the switch to more of a northwesterly flow aloft and the 
passage of multiple systems Monday forward, closer to seasonal 
temperatures are expected, i.e. highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions throughout the area which will continue for at
least the first half of the TAF period. Southerly winds will bring
up some moisture back into the area later today and into tonight,
and a few of the models try to develop some patchy fog/low stratus
just west of the Red River. However, other models keep us SKC and
there is enough uncertainty due to the patchy nature of any fog
formation to keep out of the TAFs for now. Will keep conditions
VFR through 18Z tomorrow. Winds will be the main issue, with south
to southeast winds gusting above 20 kts at times this afternoon.
Winds will decrease this evening, before picking up even stronger
by the end of the period. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions today. Less wind than
Wednesday but still enough of a southerly wind and dry fuels to
cause some concern. Dew point temperatures not quite as low as
mixing with the south winds today in the warm advection not as
deep as yesterday and less prone to bring down the very dry air. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

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