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fxus63 kfsd 221105 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
605 am CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 453 am CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Abbreviated discussion once again for ongoing severe convection
approaching the Highway 14 corridor. This activity is rooted near
800 mb, and with steep lapse rates from 700-550 mb think some storms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition, surface
inversion is somewhat weak with temperatures hanging in the lower
70s. Elevated storms this morning will transition closer to the
surface boundary across northwest Iowa this afternoon. Storm Prediction Center has a
marginal risk for these storms this afternoon, with hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Still a fairly strong capping
inversion near 700 mb, but if storms are able to develop good speed
and directional lead to 50-55 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear.

Storms work out of the region this evening leading to a cooler more
tranquil overnight.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 453 am CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Abbreviated discussion due to ongoing severe weather.

Dominant feature of the forecast for Friday through the weekend will
be cooler temperatures along with very comfortable dewpoints. Friday
will have brisk northwest winds, which will to some degree repeat
Saturday and Sunday ahead of core of high pressure. Moderated temps
somewhat on Saturday in line with deeper mixing, as sharp trough
digs through Minnesota. Colder air aloft spreads in for later
Saturday into Sunday, but stable layer remains and now looking less
likely for development of diurnal showers for Sunday. Several cool
nights in order with partial decoupling Saturday night and more full
decoupling likely Sunday night, even Monday night toward northwest
Iowa. In the meantime, should see a little moderation of temps toward
normal on Monday under the surface ridge.

Next precipitation chance will develop by later Monday night with
wave crossing western ridge and interacting with advancing warm
advection/elevated instability across south central South Dakota areas. With
the wave pushing southeast, support rapidly weakens by early Tue
further east into the County Warning Area. Better threat with a better moisture
transport and low-level jet developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

GFS is absurdly hot for most of the County Warning Area on Wednesday, and have
stayed closer to a more modest blended value, with some increase
placed into the west closer to the potential for incursion of
westerly flow.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 558 am CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Elevated storms will produce brief heavy downpours along the
Highway 14 and Highway 34 corridors through 16z including the khon
terminal. Thereafter, the focus will transition to the south
across northwest Iowa closer to the surface front. At this point,
am not confident enough in shower/thunderstorm activity in kfsd,
but if it did happen it is most likely in the mid day hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will shift south and east with northwest
winds developing.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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