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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
910 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

issued at 910 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Updated to let the red flag warning for today expire at 9 PM MDT.
Overall, winds have lessened well below critical fire weather
thresholds. Some localized stronger winds remain across northeast
Utah and northwest Colorado, due to presence of some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expecting these winds to wind
down within the hour with relative humidities recovering. A red
flag warning still remains in effect Sunday for southwest Colorado
fire zones 207 and 295.

Update issued at 726 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms across areas north
of I-70 through tonight into Sunday morning as this disturbance
and associated cold front move through. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed across Craig and Hayden and
surrounding valleys and higher terrain, tracking east.


Short term...(tonight through Sunday night)
issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Dry westerly flow continues across the area with winds beginning
to pick up. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler today in
the north due to minor cold advection as a trough and weak
surface boundary continue to work through the area. Strongest
winds are over the southern half of eastern Utah and western Colorado as
the jet sags south. Will expect the jet and Max wind band to rest
over southern Colorado Sunday with the surface front reaching as far
south as Red Mountain Pass and then sagging further and through
southeast Utah. That places SW Colorado under a stronger wind
field and warmer, drier air. Thus...have upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a red flag warning for SW Colorado Sunday late morning
to early evening.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Monday brings the start of a short warmer and drier trend as a
shortwave ridge slides over and through the area. Temperatures at
all levels rise and winds diminish. Tuesday and Wednesday will see
high temperatures running 4 to 8 degrees above normal with low
humidities back into the single digits below 8000 feet. Thursday
will continue hot and dry but the ridge will slide south and east
as a broad trough develops over the Great Basin. This will turn
the winds aloft to the southwest. This dry southwest flow will
continue Friday, but Saturday brings a chance of moisture reaching
the area from the south. A strong trough aloft moves into the
western Great Basin and northern rockies. This increases the south
to southwest flow over the eastern Great Basin, Arizona and nm which
may carry some moisture into the area. Right now it looks like
the best moisture plume will ride to far to the east to produce
any widespread rain over western Colorado or eastern Utah.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 441 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours as dry and
breezy conditions remain in place with scattered cumulus clouds
across the region, mainly over higher terrain. Some isolated
showers are possible over the uintas and mountains of northwest
Colorado this evening through Sunday morning, producing more wind
than rain, with ceilings expected to stay above ils breakpoints. Winds
will shift to the northwest by Sunday afternoon with less breezy
conditions across the region. Winds will continue to be breezy
over southwest Colorado as the upper level jet remains overhead
with drier conditions.


Fire weather...
issued at 910 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Winds will be less and humidities will be higher over the
northern two thirds of the area Sunday, basically north of Red
Mountain Pass and the Abajo Mountains. South of there, the Max
wind band will rest over southwest Colorado, continuing the hot,
dry and windy conditions for another day over southwest Colorado.
A red flag warning remains in effect for Colorado zones 207 and
295 from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM MDT Sunday for coz207-295.



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