Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgrr 191846 
afdgrr

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
246 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Latest update...
synopsis/short term/long term/marine

Synopsis...
issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A large area of high pressure will Camp out over Michigan for the
next several days leading to clear skies and warming temperatures.
Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be around 60.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Forecast concerns are minimal today.

Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies stretching from Michigan
west to the plains. Light snow that fell last night north of I-96 is
quite visible on satellite and has been eroding from south to north
today. Clear skies and light winds sometimes lead to fog at night
and given the melting snow that was somewhat of a concern. However,
surface dewpoints are very low and so the fog threat appears minimal
at best; we left it out of the forecast.

Mostly clear skies are expected through Saturday night and highs in
the mid 50s are expected Friday and Saturday.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The next weather maker looks to be a cold front moving through the
cwa Wednesday. The ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and
shows a weak cold front moving across the cwa Tuesday night. Some
showery weather looks like a possibility as the upper trough passes
through Wednesday into Thursday, but the latest ECMWF solution is
quite a bit different than the 00z run in that instead of a Deep Cut
off low over northern lower, it now shows a weaker open wave over
Missouri. This is similar to the GFS solution. Not real confident
we'll see much precipitation out of this and then high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes again by Thursday. Thus we may be
looking at a fairly extended dry period which will bring fire
weather concerns into play.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Winds will diminish with sunset. Clear skies are expected through
the period.



&&

Marine...
issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

No changes to the headlines. Winds and waves will diminish this
evening.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 740 am EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Lowland flooding near riverbanks will be ongoing over the next
several days as water from last weekend's mixed precipitation event
moves through the river basins. Since no heavy rain events are
anticipated through at least early next week, river levels will
gradually crest then subside. The exception may be the Muskegon
and Chippewa rivers, which still have a fair amount of surface
water locked up as snow/sleet. That snowpack will gradually melt
with warmer temperatures this weekend, so flood concerns are
limited though river levels will remain elevated.

&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for lmz844>849.

&&

$$

Synopsis...04

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations