Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 khgx 152333
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
633 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Aviation [00z taf issuance]...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the taf period
across all terminals. Radar imagery as of 630 PM CDT show a few
showers west of the Houston Metro terminals, and these showers
should begin to wane with the lack of daytime heating. Could see
some patchy fog develop at cxo tonight, but at this time still not
expecting visibilities to fall below VFR criteria.
With an upper-level ridge continuing to build in from the east
overnight and throughout the day Thursday, the chance for a shower
or isolated tstorm will be less tomorrow compared to what we saw
today. With drier air in place and a weak cap at 800mb, the only
potential for development of precip would be along the seabreeze
and beneath the cap in the afternoon hours, with the best chance
if any at hou and southward. For this reason have kept all tafs
dry for Thursday, but will continue to monitor trends in short
term guidance for any changes.
Previous discussion /issued 311 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/...
a couple of thunderstorms over the city at 3 PM with showers
moving into the nearshore waters and dotting the seabreeze. Rain
chances remaining fairly slim through Monday morning mainly
associated with the coastal waters (showers) and seabreeze into
the south and southeastern areas. Upper ridge weakening overhead
and shifting west through the weekend. Monday into Tuesday upper
trough dropping southeastward through the plains deepens and
eventually pushes a cold (but not very) front into southeast Texas Wednesday
or Thursday next week. This should give most of the area a better
chance of much needed rainfall.
Afternoon temperatures this week still hovering around normal to
just slightly above normal with well above normal mins. Heat index
readings will spend the afternoon hours in the 100-106 degree
range most of the week though a spotty 107 or 108 may be possible
Thursday or Friday.
look for light to moderate onshore flow to continue at least into
the weekend. Winds may start to edge towards the edge of scec
criteria at times overnight, but at this time wind speeds are
largely expected to stay below 15 knots. Similarly, look for seas of
2-3 feet and tides that are a few inches above astronomical
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 76 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 10 0
Houston (iah) 77 95 77 94 77 / 10 10 0 10 0
Galveston (gls) 82 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 10 10