Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
351 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016

a very warm and humid airmass will remain in place today and
Monday. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected
Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. The
next chance for thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the
approach of a cold front.


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
atmosphere continues to be very warm, moist and unstable across
the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms have already begun to develop
across southern Ohio/portions of northern Kentucky early this
afternoon. Somewhat more organized convection has also developed
across Northwest Ohio/northern Indiana closer to a weakening cold
front and mid level shortwave.

Given the environment, more pop up showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the afternoon. Based on radar trends, will focus
highest pops across the far southern portion of the County Warning Area initially
then later this afternoon/early evening additional convective activity
may develop and affect more of the County Warning Area. This solution is more in
line with recent runs of the hrrr.

High preciptable waters will support heavy rainfall in the strongest
storms. Some of the storms especially over southern Ohio/northern
Kentucky will also exhibit slow movement. Therefore there is the
potential for heavy rainfall to result in minor flooding issues.

In addition, while shear is forecast to be weak there will likely
be sufficient instability (cape aoa 2500 j/kg) for the strongest
storms to produce gusty or even locally damaging wind gusts.

After sunset, much of the activity is expected to dissipate given
the large influence daytime heating will have on thunderstorm

Expect another muggy night with dewpoints remaining in the upper
60s to lower 70s. There may be a fair amount of lingering mid
clouds overnight which would inhibit fog formation, but can't
rule out patchy fog forming in fog-prone areas late.


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
initial frontal boundary to the north looks to wash out Monday,
but models suggest that weak high pressure and lower precipitable
water values will try to move down at least in central/west-
central Ohio later in the day. This may keep that area dry on
Monday, however sufficient moisture along with afternoon
instability will likely support convective development Monday
afternoon further south into Ohio/northern Kentucky. Locally heavy
rainfall could once again be a risk with the strongest storms.

Lower precipitable waters and a bubble of high pressure press
further south Monday night into Tuesday. Therefore, have
continued with a dry forecast during this time. A cold front will
approach late Tuesday night.


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
cold front will push into the region at the beginning of the period.
Forcing appears weak and moisture limited...but still included a
chance of storms across northern counties.

High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and
continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The high
will continue extend into the forecast area through the weekend.
This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop closer to
normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over the


Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period with the exception of
MVFR br at kluk in the 10-12z timeframe. The sites least likely to
see thunderstorm activity this afternoon are Kiln/kday...with
scattered thunderstorms expected across the kcmh/klck and then
across the kcvg/kluk locations from especially 20-00z. Winds very
light through the period generally from the NE...with otherwise no
flight impacts outside of thunderstorms and short lived br.

Outlook...thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...heat advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ohz073-077>082-
Kentucky...heat advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for kyz089>100.
In...heat advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for inz073>075-080.


near term...bpp
short term...bpp
long term...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations