Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 172003
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
403 PM EDT sun Jun 17 2018
hot and humid conditions will persist through Monday, with high
pressure lingering over the region. A cold front will approach
the area from the north Monday night, bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms, and also lower temperatures slightly
into mid week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
very spotty diurnal convection will continue through late
afternoon, dying down by 00z with loss of instability. Greatest
chance of showers and storms will be in central Ohio, though
isolated storms possible through much of forecast area. Heat
index values very close to or briefly hitting 100 through late
afternoon, though surface dewpoints continue to mix down.
Overnight lows very warm at 70 to low 70s.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
messy upr ridge flattening out through the period, with a
shortwave and associated frontal boundary suppressing the ridge
to the south through the day Monday. Monday will have similar
heat index values, but increased cloud cover and winds
increasing slightly. Have again held off on issuance of a heat
advisory, as while values will peak in the upper 90s, with a
location or 2 possibly briefly hitting 100. Confidence in heat
advisory not high at this time, so something for consideration
for future forecasts. While approach of frontal boundary should
bring more organized convection into the afternoon with more
favorable forcing pushing into the far northern forcast area
could mean a strong storm possible.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Upper ridge in place across the eastern Continental U.S. Will dictate weather
conditions during the early portion of the long term. An upper
trough traveling through the Great Lakes will then provide
additional forcing for the latter part of the period.
An east-west oriented cold front pushing south into the upper ridge
will bring the likelihood for thunderstorms on Tuesday, with greater
focus in the north half of the forecast area. The likelihood for thunderstorms
will transition toward the southern half of the forecast area on Wednesday
following the progression of the front. Severe weather cannot be
ruled out in the unstable and sheared environment. Reduced chances
for thunderstorms may be evident Thursday when the front is forecast
to be south of the Ohio River.
As the upper trough comes into the picture, thunderstorm
probabilities increase again Friday and Saturday in the moist ascent
ahead of that system. Some relief from the convection will be
possible next Sunday when the upper ridge may begin to rebuild.
High temperatures starting in the upper 80s to 90 Tuesday will
retreat a bit while remaining above normal in the low and mid 80s
for the remainder of the period.
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
continued VFR cumulus with thunderstorms in the vicinity mainly at kcmh/klck from now
through about 21-22z. While isolated convection possible at
western taf sites, coverage will be so isolated as to be not
Worth mentioning in these tafs. With very minimal forcing and
activity instability based, cumulus and convection are expected
to die down after about 22z. With some cirrus expected
overnight, am not anticipating br to be a problem with exception
of kluk. For Monday during the day, increased gradient should
bring wind back up to near 10kts as the frontal boundary over
lower Michigan begins to approach the region.
Outlook...showers and thunderstorms are possible at times from
Tuesday through Thursday.