Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 231754
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
154 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017
high pressure will build into the region through the end of the
week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler
temperatures through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
fair wx cu has sprouted nicely over the region this afternoon
and will quickly dissipate by evening. Temps are on track to
reach their mid-upper 70s potential this afternoon. No changes
were made to the updated forecast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
any lingering cu should dissipate this evening as we lose the
daytime heating. With clear skies and decreasing winds, expect
lows in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s not out of the
question across our northwest. A mid level short wave will drop
down across the area through the day on Thursday. This will
allow US to cu up once again and may be enough to produce a few
showers, especially across our northeast. Highs on Thursday will
be in the low to mid 70s.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
an upper level shortwave will be moving overhead Thursday night with
cold air advection continuing over the region. Friday morning the longwave trough
axis will be centered over New York with surface high pressure over
northern Michigan. Winds will likely decouple Friday morning with
low temperatures in the lower 50s (some upper 40s in rural areas).
During the day Friday 850 mb temperatures will hold around 8 degrees
c with high temperatures only expected to climb into the mid 70s.
Saturday into Sunday again look pleasant with high temperatures
slowly warming each progressive day into the upper 70s. Most of the
weekend will remain dry with only some models hinting at very light
quantitative precipitation forecast totals Sunday evening. For now have left the forecast dry
through the weekend as pwats remain between 0.50" to 0.60" (near
record low values for this time of year).
Monday through Wednesday low confidence exists in the forecast as
mid-level ridging builds across the mountain west and a shortwave
dives south into the plains. At the same time both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS
have a quasi-stationary tropical system near southeast Texas.
Exactly how and if the tropical system and shortwave interact
continues to be nebulous. For now have kept pops at chance for the
end of the extended due to low confidence and high uncertainty.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will prevail over the forecast with fair wx cu
during the daylight hours, dissipating with nightfall. North-
northwest winds around 8kt during the day will relax to under
5kt overnight with a more westerly component.
Outlook...no significant weather.