Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kilx 200436 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
1136 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

issued at 923 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Current forecast is in good shape. Quiet weather is expected
across central and southeast Illinois through the night (and
beyond) as high pressure builds across the area. Only minor tweaks
were needed to the hourly trends.


Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Scattered clouds linger south of I-70 early this afternoon, but
continue to decrease as subsidence strengthens over the area.
High pressure slowly drifting into the Great Lakes overnight and
Friday will result in mainly clear skies. Have made no changes to
the freeze headlines along and south of I-70. While areas north of
there will be well below freezing, the growing season hasn't
gotten quite as far along yet. Temperatures on Friday will warm
nicely from this cold start though, and should be close to 60 in
most areas by mid afternoon.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Extended period of snow-free Spring weather appears on the horizon
through this period, as temperatures continue to warm close to
(though not quite at) climatological normals. Some questions with
the extended models on the timing of the warmest periods next
week, but no real surges of Canadian air look to make it this far

Precipitation-wise, the upper low currently over Nevada remains on
track to emerge over the plains this weekend, tracking into the
lower Mississippi Valley. The associated showers look to stay
south of US initially. However, the low will drift into the
Tennessee Valley early next week. Have added some scattered
showers over southeast Illinois for Monday as a result. Meanwhile,
a strong Canadian wave will drop southward on Tuesday. The GFS
solution has this wave absorbing the remnants of the earlier low,
while the Canadian and European solutions strengthen a storm
system over the northern and Central Plains Tuesday night. These
latter solutions appear more plausible at this time, and will be
our primary rain chance over the next week. May need to make some
adjustments later in lingering rain deeper into Wednesday, but
for now, rain chances on Wednesday will be limited to eastern


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected through the 06z
taf valid time across the central Illinois terminals. High
pressure will build across the area during the period, providing
minimal cloud cover and winds generally at or below 10 kts.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning until 8 am CDT Friday for ilz062-063-066>068-



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations