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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
430 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016


The aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 323 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place through the early
part of the work week, with chances for thunderstorms at times
through Wednesday, before a broad area of surface high pressure
moves into the area and brings cooler and drier conditions to
central Indiana.


Near term /tonight/...
issued at 323 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016

Isolated showers and storms have managed to develop in a couple of
spots this afternoon, but the bulk of this activity has remained
along an axis north of central Indiana and scattered to the south.
Cannot rule out isolated storms through the afternoon and early
evening and will carry low pops as a result. Any activity should
dissipate with the loss of heating and the majority of the night
will be dry as a result.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable overnight, and temps should
be near persistence with no change in airmass.


Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
issued at 323 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016

Will again carry thunder chances mainly tomorrow afternoon as in
the absence of more significant upper level support, any storms
will be largely diurnally driven. Surface high pressure nudging
further into the area should provide a dry spell Monday night into
much of Tuesday before an upstream cold front begins to approach
the area. The best chance for storms with this frontal system will
be Wednesday as it traverses the area.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable throughout the period, with
the exception of a minor bump upward on Monday highs as
thicknesses suggest similar temperatures to today should be


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
issued at 225 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016

Big change in store for the long term as models and ensembles in
good agreement that strong high pressure in the wake of a cold
front will bring dry...cooler and much drier air to the area.
Regional blend handles this well. So, stuck with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Saturday and lower to mid
80s Sunday. Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s look
good as well.


Aviation /discussion for the 282100z kind taf update/...
issued at 430 PM EDT sun Aug 28 2016

Air mass is quite unstable this afternoon, which suggests the threat
for widely scattered convection in the vicinity of the kind terminal
will continue into the early evening hours.

Previous discussion follows.

Confidence is good in 3 to 3.5k feet diurnal ceilings through 00z.
With such a soupy airmass and a pair of weak upper waves, should
also see isolated to scattered thunderstorms. So, went with thunderstorms in the vicinity.
Then, good confidence in VFR conditions this evening and also in a
few hours of MVFR and IFR fog at the smaller airports 08z-12z as
airmass will remain unchanged. Should see more diurnal MVFR or VFR
cu after 16z Monday. Thunderstorm coverage expected to be too low to
put in the tafs.

Winds will be 6 knots or less through the period, except higher in


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none.



near term...nield
short term...nield

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