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fxus63 kiwx 172013 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
313 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

issued at 305 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Cloudy skies and perhaps a few light showers or drizzle will be
possible tonight along with patchy fog. Low temperatures will
only drop into the lower and middle 30s. Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and mild as high pressure builds across the region. Highs
will reach the mid to upper 40s each day and lows will be in the
30s. Warm conditions are expected this weekend with high
temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There is a chance for
showers on Friday and Sunday.


Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A low pressure area was over lower Michigan and was moving
northeast. Cold air advection was south of the low over the
forecast area. Light showers and patchy drizzle and areas of fog
may persist well into the night as the weak flow continues with
sufficient moisture upstream. Temperatures should stay above
freezing, so travel impacts should be limited to the patchy fog.


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Two upper level systems will lift northeast over the area during
this period. The initial system should bring a round of light rain
Thursday night into Friday. A second, but much stronger system will
follow a similar path of the first. More rain is likely with this
second system. Other than lows dipping a little below freezing
Thursday night, temperatures should stay above freezing through next
Tuesday and will even approach record highs on Saturday and Sunday.
Have raised temperatures across the board during this entire period
based the the latest model blends and trends. Rises on rivers are
likely with flooding possible especially early next week given
saturated and partly frozen ground conditions with excess runoff.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1159 am EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Low level clouds and mist will keep ceilings below 1 kft for the
majority of the forecast period. As the front approaches an
isolated chance of rain is possible for the afternoon and evening.
Some improvement to flight conditions is possible by tomorrow
morning as ceilings should rise up to low MVFR flight criteria.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...skipper
long term...skipper

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