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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
658 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Update...
issued at 625 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Some showers have popped up in West Virginia early this morning.
These showers should stay out of the area this morning but
convective models are still hinting at a bit of precip activity
along the WV and Virginia borders this morning into the early afternoon.
So decided to keep isolated pops in these areas through mid
afternoon. Otherwise, did a quick refresh to the hourly temps and
sky cover to reflect recent obs. Sent updates to ndfd and web
servers.

&&

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 322 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

High pressure will remain on control of the weather through the
short term. A mid to upper level ridge is centered over the
southeastern Continental U.S. This morning, spreading its influence across
eastern Kentucky. Mid and upper level drying is also apparent in
current WV/infrared imagery moving across our region. Given the
anticyclonic upper level flow, the ongoing convection across the
Ohio Valley should stay to our north and east as it rotates around
the high this morning. Models hint at some shower activity perhaps
grazing our northeastern counties (from the ongoing convection) during
the morning hours as well as some terrain-induced showers/storms
along the Virginia border in the afternoon. However, with most of
the column staying dry, the shower activity shouldn't amount to
much today. The best chance, if any, will be over the high terrain
in western Virginia.

High pressure becomes centered over eastern Kentucky late tonight
and remains over US through Friday. This will likely keep any
shower activity out of the area and have adjusted pops to reflect
this.

Today and Friday will be muggy and warm with highs in the upper
80s/low 90s. During the afternoon hours, heat indices are expected
to reach the mid and upper 90s so take precaution if spending time
outdoors. Tonight will also be unseasonably warm with lows
staying in the low 70s.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 513 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

A stagnant pattern is likely to be in place. Upper level ridging
will be present over the southeast Continental U.S. At the start of the
period, with a hot and fairly moist surface air mass in
place. Daytime heating could provide enough instability for
showers/thunderstorms to boil up at times. However, weak flow
aloft and a lack of forcing features will keep convection
disorganized. Early in the period, during the weekend, the most
probable place for initial development would be by the Virginia and Tennessee
borders due to heating of elevated terrain. Later in the period,
the upper level ridge should weaken and development would also be
favored further north around the periphery of the high. Another
possible player is a tropical system which could move into the
southeast Continental U.S. By the end of the period. The European model (ecmwf) is much
stronger with this than the GFS, but there is something present in
both models. Its influence is currently shown to be to our
southeast, but confidence in its occurrence and location are low.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 658 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Other than a few isolated showers or thunderstorms along the WV
and Virginia borders this morning/early afternoon, the area will remain
dry today. Along with these showers may come a 4-5k cloud deck but
should clear out this evening. That being said, no aviation
impacts are anticipated throughout the majority of the period as
upper level ridging builds into the region. Fog development is
possible again tonight but decided to leave it out of the forecast
for now given forecast uncertainties. Winds will remain variable
between 5 and 10 knots today then slacken overnight tonight.

&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...jvm
short term...jvm
long term...hal
aviation...jvm

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