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000 
FXUS64 KLCH 190338
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1038 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.UPDATE...
The band of heavy rain that trained acrs portions of Jefferson 
and Orange Counties earlier today has finally weakened. Rainfall 
amounts of 5 to 7 inches occurred in this area during the aftn 
into early evening. Recent radar trends indicate a weakening and 
somewhat diminishing trend, and expect this will continue through
the next few hours. However, additional convection is expected to
begin redeveloping over the coastal waters overnight, spreading
inland during the early morning hours. With the abnormally moist
airmass still over the region, heavy rainfall will again be 
possible acrs the same areas that saw excessive rain today. While
it is difficult to pinpoint the areas that will receive the most
intense rain bands, general amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be 
possible, with locally higher amounts in areas where training 
develops. 

For tonight, made some minor tweaks to PoPs to reflect recent
trends, but kept PoPs near categorical acrs lower southeast TX and
far southwestern LA. Otherwise, the remainder of the fcst is on
track. 

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
00z Taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Main area of concern will be for BPT this evening and overnight. Training
bands of mainly showers will intermittently lower ceilings and visibilities
to MVFR, possibly lower within the heavier bursts of rain, along with
winds gusting to 30 kts. For the remainder of the terminals, mainly
light rain to continue for LCH, with AEX, LFT, ARA not expecting much
rain this evening. Ceilings between 7000-10000ft across these areas,
not expecting restrictions.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Rain totals across the area have been somewhat 
limited today with generally light stratiform rains prevailing.
Exception to that for this afternoon has been the development of 
training showers moving over southeast Texas and heavily focused 
on Jefferson county where a flash flood warning is in effect. Slow
westward advancing tropical wave approaching or over the Texas
coast will keep the faucet on for the next few days, especially 
over the western portion of the forecast area.

Limited changes to forecast. Aforementioned feature will maintain
a steady stream of deep tropical moisture flowing into the 
region. Deepest moisture progged to hold along and to the west of 
the Sabine river where a potential will remain through Wednesday 
for flooding rains. WPC maintaining a slight risk for our lower 
southeast Texas counties. Drier weather pattern and heat returning
area-wide for the latter half of the week.

MARINE...A weak tropical wave will continue to move across the 
western Gulf of Mexico and into Texas through tonight. This 
system will interact with a surface high building in from the 
western Atlantic and tighten the pressure gradient over the 
northwest Gulf. The result will be strong onshore flow and rough 
seas with small craft conditions into this evening. Tides will 
also run about a foot above astronomical levels through tonight. 
The tropical wave will also bring an increase in moisture with 
numerous showers and storms through mid-week. 

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  86  72  88 /  20  50  20  50 
LCH  74  85  76  88 /  70  70  40  50 
LFT  74  88  75  90 /  20  60  20  40 
BPT  76  84  77  87 /  80  80  60  60 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

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