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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...Will maintain VCTS at all southern terminals for this
afternoon. Radar has been depicting considerable convection along
the coast and near coastal waters, though lessening over the last
few hours. Expecting a flair-up inland as temperatures warm and
have opted to include TEMPO groups at these sites for SHRA.
Otherwise expecting VFR to prevail while winds remain light from
the southeast. Stronger gusts will be possible with more robust
convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/ 

UPDATE...
Forecast today is between an upper level trough extending from the
northern plains to the southwest U.S. moving slowly to the east.
Meanwhile, an upper level low is noted on water vapor and upper
air analysis over the western Florida panhandle. Moisture surge
noted ahead of the upper level trough across the northwest Gulf of
Mexico into Texas and southwest Louisiana, with PWAT values at
25/12Z nearing 2 inches (up from 1.7 inches at 25/00Z) and Surface
to 500mb Mean RH at 75 percent (up from 60 percent.) Latest radar
imagery shows a decent coverage of nocturnal shower activity
remains over the coastal waters into extreme southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana. 

With daytime heating, expect showers and thunderstorms to
continue to form and move inland across mainly southeast Texas and
lower southwest Louisiana. Some drier air entrained around the
upper level low is moving over eastern portions of the forecast
area as seen on water vapor. This may preclude significant shower
development for locations northeast of a Leesville to Intracoastal
City line. This is also depicted in the latest hi res models, and
also in the current forecast grids. Therefore, no changed expected
to the forecast at this time.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Basically followed the previous TAF thinking this forecast. Gulf
convection has blossomed nicely the past several hours...and some
of this is beginning to work its way ashore near KBPT. Per short
and medium-range guidance best rain chances remain across wrn
portions of the forecast area where moisture is best...and TEMPO
for showers was inserted at KBPT for this morning due to this
ongoing shower activity.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure remains stretched across the
northern gulf and southeast states this morning. This is keeping a
light south to southeast flow in place which is driving a few
showers and storms into the coastal zones. Aloft, the ridging that
has been in place the last few days continues to break down and
shift east. A large trough stretches from Canada, across the
mountain west, and into Mexico.

The upper trough will continue east through the next few days
which will allow a cold front to push into the gulf Monday
night/Tuesday morning. This will usher in drier and cooler
conditions that will linger through the remainder of the week.

MARINE...Weak ridging at the surface will keep an onshore flow in
place through today, however a few showers and storms will occur.
A cold front will move through the coastal waters Tuesday morning
with a light to moderate offshore flow lingering through the end
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  90  66 /  20  20  30  20 
LCH  89  74  90  69 /  30  20  30  30 
LFT  91  73  91  70 /  20  20  30  30 
BPT  89  74  90  71 /  40  20  40  30 

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23

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