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National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local 88Ds show quite a bit of rain with a little embedded thunder
continuing over the swrn zones late this evening. Newest short-
range high-res model data indicates this activity will continue
mainly over KBPT for the next several hours as showers/maybe a
storm or two continue to develop over the nwrn Gulf and push
inland. Same model data also painting some possible fog mainly for
the srn sites...have inserted tempo wording for these
terminals...while expect another night of slight restrictions to
visibility for KAEX where this has certainly been the norm of
late. Sunday looks to be another wet day as copious Gulf moisture
flows in behind the departing wave...while forecast soundings
indicate little capping and low convective temps.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
Updated forecast to distribution of qpf and chances of showers and
thunderstorms from right now through the evening and overnight
hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
increasing in areal coverage again late this afternoon over C and
SC LA as they move in a general cyclonic circulation over the
northwest Gulf & SE TX/LA. So rather than try to pinpoint
bullseyes of qpf this afternoon and evening, made more even
distribution for this activity. This area still expected to
contract towards the coast after midnight into Sunday morning.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
A coastal trough has been the instigator of showers and a few
thunderstorms across our region, rotating in a counter-clockwise
direction. This activity could potentially flare up later tonight
in terms of coverage and intensity. We are currently looking at
the potential for 1 to 3 inches in parts of southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana. This could result in street flooding during
times of heavy rains.

The rain coverage will likely be similar to day on Sunday, and
perhaps even Monday, before the trough shifts further south by
mid-week. Accordingly, rain chances will return to near
climatological averages by mid-week through the end of the week.

Temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover and rain. In the
rain, temperatures will be in the 70s or lower 80s. Out of the
rain highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday and
Monday, before a warming trend into the low to mid 90s is expected
by mid-week thanks to less storm coverage. Low temperatures will
be in the 70s the entire forecast period.

Invest 99L is still a disorganized, broad low pressure area in the
Bahamas. It has a chance of medium chance of developing in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. So far, indications show it
remaining well to our east and not factoring into our weather
locally.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  90  73  92 /  50  50  20  20 
LCH  74  87  75  88 /  70  70  40  60 
LFT  74  88  75  88 /  50  60  40  50 
BPT  74  87  75  87 /  70  70  40  70 

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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