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FXUS64 KLCH 280956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
456 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery depicted
an upper level trof over E TX and into the NW Gulf. SFC to H7
analysis revealed an inverted trof axis stretching from SC LA
across the NW Gulf to near the TX/MX border. 

Convection has blossomed over the coastal waters within the past 
couple of hours, with some of this activity reaching coastal SE
TX/SRN LA before dissipating as it progresses farther inland.
Upper trof over E TX is forecast to remain quasi-stationary today
while the low to mid level inverted trof axis sharpens a bit and 
becomes re-oriented in a more E-W manner over the Gulf waters and
pushes inland tonight. Both the GFS/ECMWF maintain something of an
E-W oriented upper jet (50-60KT) over the central/eastern Gulf 
coast states, placing much of coastal TX/LA and the adjacent Gulf
waters in a RRQ. The corresponding increase in low level wind 
fields is evident in a 20-30KT LLJ. While neither of these 
kinematic features is overly impressive in magnitude, any lift 
added to an already moisture laden (PWAT AOA 2") and unstable 
airmass will only serve to enhance convective coverage. Thus,
anticipate a generally wet next 48 hrs or so from roughly the I-10
corridor southward, with an attendant risk of locally heavy
rainfall given efficient rain producing convection. Have mentioned
this potential in the grids and will also address in the HWO.  

Low/mid level trof axis and its associated MSTR pool will 
continue to lift off TWD the NE and begin to pull away from the 
area THU night, replaced by a low/mid level ridge and relatively
drier air building into the northern Gulf. Rain chances will 
begin to decline then virtually disappear for the weekend and into
early next week. 



An upper level trof of low pressure over the northwest Gulf coupled
with a surface trough of low pressure along the Texas coast will 
result in modest east to southeast winds and numerous showers and 
thunderstorms through Thursday. Have headlined exercise caution
today for 15-20KT winds over the Gulf waters, and this may need 
extending further in time. Rain chances will decrease as these 
features lift to the northeast and away from the region by Friday,
with light to modest south winds prevailing around high pressure 
ridging west across the Gulf.



AEX  88  72  85  74 /  30  30  50  20 
LCH  85  76  85  79 /  60  70  80  30 
LFT  84  73  83  76 /  60  60  80  30 
BPT  85  75  85  78 /  60  70  80  30 


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ450-452-

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