Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS64 KLCH 281156
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
656 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
Low clouds filling in across southern Louisiana and southeast
Texas as the next system continues to develop this morning in
Texas. The pressure gradient has tighten with winds strong and 
gusty at times. IFR/MVFR thru the mrng hrs w/ isolated shwrs into
the late afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the forecast in the short term. A warm front
will lift out of the gulf this morning which could provide enough
of a focus for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop.
The upper low associated with the aforementioned warm front will
drop out of Colorado into the four corners region as the day
progresses and the area will begin to feel it's effects with 
winds becoming strong and gusty this afternoon. Held off on the 
issuance of a wind advisory for the time being as guidance keeps 
sustained winds below criteria. That said, the same thing happened
the other day and criteria winds were easily exceeded. So don't 
be surprised if a wind advisory becomes necessary later on this 
afternoon. 

Low temperatures tonight will be reminiscent of mid August with
values ranging from 76 to 78. Should this forecast verify, then
several record high minimums will be broken tonight. 

Wind speeds will increase further during the day on Saturday where
a wind advisory will be almost assured. 25 to 30 MPH with gusts to
35 MPH are likely. 

Guidance has been a bit more consistent in showing scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing Saturday so confidence is
growing with regards to this solution...much to the chagrin of
outdoor event planners. Besides dealing with the rain and wind,
some of the storms Saturday will have the potential to be on the
strong to severe side. SPC has highlighted southeast Texas in an 
enhanced risk for severe weather while southwest Louisiana is in a
slight risk. Forecast soundings corroborate this analysis well 
with 0-1 km shear values between 35 and 45 knots (some of the
higher values i've seen in a long time), CAPE of 2500 to 3500 
J/KG and LI's of -10. It appears that a fairly robust cap will be
in place early Saturday morning (CIN of -137), but erodes by 
around 21Z Saturday.

Of course the highest precipitation chances will come on Sunday 
when a cold front will finally push through the area. Forecast
rainfall totals for the two day period Saturday and Sunday will be
in the 2 to 3 inch range with locally higher amounts possible. 

Behind the front, winds will turn northwesterly and subside while
bringing in drier and cooler air for the start of the week.
However, southerly flow and moisture quickly return for Tuesday
with another shortwave increasing rain chances across the area for
the latter half of the week.

Jones

MARINE...
Strong and gusty southerly winds will continue today and increase
further on Saturday as a cold front approaches the area. Seas of
10 to 12 feet are expected across the outer coastal waters with 7
to 9 foot seas across the nearshore waters. This strong southerly
flow will also result in above normal tide readings the next few
high tide cycles, especially Saturday and Sunday mornings. A
coastal Flood watch has been issued from Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. In addition to the strong winds and seas, 
widespread showers and thunderstorms will move through the coastal
waters Sunday as the front pushes through the area. Behind the 
front, winds will turn Northwesterly and subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  75  85  70 /  20  20  40  80 
LCH  84  77  83  70 /  20  20  50 100 
LFT  87  78  86  75 /  20  20  30  40 
BPT  86  77  83  67 /  20  20  50 100 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening 
     for LAZ073-074.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday 
     for GMZ450-452-455-470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ450-452-
     455-470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for 
     GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations