Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KLCH 190338 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1038 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 .UPDATE... The band of heavy rain that trained acrs portions of Jefferson and Orange Counties earlier today has finally weakened. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches occurred in this area during the aftn into early evening. Recent radar trends indicate a weakening and somewhat diminishing trend, and expect this will continue through the next few hours. However, additional convection is expected to begin redeveloping over the coastal waters overnight, spreading inland during the early morning hours. With the abnormally moist airmass still over the region, heavy rainfall will again be possible acrs the same areas that saw excessive rain today. While it is difficult to pinpoint the areas that will receive the most intense rain bands, general amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible, with locally higher amounts in areas where training develops. For tonight, made some minor tweaks to PoPs to reflect recent trends, but kept PoPs near categorical acrs lower southeast TX and far southwestern LA. Otherwise, the remainder of the fcst is on track. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ DISCUSSION... 00z Taf issuance. AVIATION... Main area of concern will be for BPT this evening and overnight. Training bands of mainly showers will intermittently lower ceilings and visibilities to MVFR, possibly lower within the heavier bursts of rain, along with winds gusting to 30 kts. For the remainder of the terminals, mainly light rain to continue for LCH, with AEX, LFT, ARA not expecting much rain this evening. Ceilings between 7000-10000ft across these areas, not expecting restrictions. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ DISCUSSION...Rain totals across the area have been somewhat limited today with generally light stratiform rains prevailing. Exception to that for this afternoon has been the development of training showers moving over southeast Texas and heavily focused on Jefferson county where a flash flood warning is in effect. Slow westward advancing tropical wave approaching or over the Texas coast will keep the faucet on for the next few days, especially over the western portion of the forecast area. Limited changes to forecast. Aforementioned feature will maintain a steady stream of deep tropical moisture flowing into the region. Deepest moisture progged to hold along and to the west of the Sabine river where a potential will remain through Wednesday for flooding rains. WPC maintaining a slight risk for our lower southeast Texas counties. Drier weather pattern and heat returning area-wide for the latter half of the week. MARINE...A weak tropical wave will continue to move across the western Gulf of Mexico and into Texas through tonight. This system will interact with a surface high building in from the western Atlantic and tighten the pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf. The result will be strong onshore flow and rough seas with small craft conditions into this evening. Tides will also run about a foot above astronomical levels through tonight. The tropical wave will also bring an increase in moisture with numerous showers and storms through mid-week. 23 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 86 72 88 / 20 50 20 50 LCH 74 85 76 88 / 70 70 40 50 LFT 74 88 75 90 / 20 60 20 40 BPT 76 84 77 87 / 80 80 60 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.