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FXUS64 KLCH 191128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
628 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018


VFR conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the 
region today. OVC/BKN clouds around 6000 feet at all but KAEX are
expected to give way to clear skies by mid morning. Winds
throughout today will be out of the N/NW at 10-15 knots before
decreasing after 20/00Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/ 

Wx map shows exiting large surface low over the eastern U.S. The
cold front extends across the Gulf States, just entering Inland SE
TX & C LA this morning. A mix of mid level clouds and patchy fog
lies just ahead of the front across SE TX/S LA. So far, no echos
on radar along the front. Moisture continues to be extremely
limited above 850mb, along with a significant capping inversion at
850mb. Thus, might see a couple of showers along the front,
keeping it capped at 10-14% along the frontal. Cooler and drier 
air behind the front will prevail through Friday, giving a couple
of nice days with temperatures averaging about 5-10 degrees below
normal with no precipitation. If you can, enjoy this while it 
last, because it won't be long until the hot and humid weather 
returns for the summer season.

Big changes for the weekend. A large surface and upper level low 
will move through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. 
Expect much increased chances of showers and thunderstorms by 
Saturday afternoon and evening with the approach of the system. 
Most models have consistent timing for best chances of precipitation
late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. NAM12 & GFS20 most 
robust in forming widespread thunderstorms with the northward 
moving warm front, and along the surface low. SPC has our region 
of SE TX/S LA outlined in marginal risk for severe thunderstorms 
in the Day 3 outlook for Saturday into early Sunday morning, 
mainly highlighting convection along the warm front Saturday 
afternoon, and just ahead and along the surface low.

Lingering wrap around chances of showers expected for late Sunday
morning as the system exits the region. Slightly cooler and drier
air expected for Monday through Wednesday of next week.


A cold front will sweep into the Gulf waters this morning, followed
by elevated offshore flow through early Friday. Winds will shift 
to a southerly direction by Saturday, increasing in speed over the
weekend ahead of our next storm system. Another cold front, 
preceded and accompanied by scattered to widespread showers and 
thunderstorms, will sweep through the coastal waters on Sunday.



AEX  70  45  70  51 /  10   0  10  10 
LCH  74  50  71  56 /  10   0  10  10 
LFT  71  48  71  53 /  10   0  10  10 
BPT  75  51  71  59 /  10   0  10  10 


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Friday morning for GMZ455-

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Friday morning for GMZ450-


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