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000 
FXUS64 KLCH 090544
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Update mainly for marine hazards. Gale warning replaced with
Small Craft Advisory for the 0-20 nm marine zones, and Small Craft
Exercise Caution for the lakes and bays.

Otherwise, patchy light rain mainly confined to the coast into
the coastal waters. Keeping the slight chance of rain through the
overnight hours. Temperatures continue to fall slowly, in the
upper 30s across inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana.
Winds expected to subside further with partial clearing beginning
to take place. Thus, no changes to freeze warning to areas north
of I-10.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
Update to forecast was for removal of Wind Advisory wording, as it
has expired at 6 PM. No other changes to ongoing hazards.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ 

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the period,
however cirrostratus will remain at 10k to 15k feet through most
of tonight. Gusty north to northeast winds will also remain
through sunrise and then gradually decrease through Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
Cold air advection continues this afternoon as polar airmass
continues to filter into the region today. Temperatures in the
lower 50s to mid 40s this afternoon. Some filtered sunshine has
allowed temperatures to bounce up a few degrees, especially in
central LA. Radar continues to indicate showers mainly along the
coast this afternoon. Additional showers were well to the west.

Winds have already come down a bit this afternoon, but will let
the current wind advisory continue through 6 PM. Otherwise some of
the guidance is indicating another shortwave crossing this evening
and even the possibility of additional drizzle or light rain
across the coastal parishes tonight. With the clouds and winds
continuing did increase overnight lows about a degree from what
the previous forecast indicated. This still leaves the current
freeze warning looking in good shape, with the exception of Hardin
and southern portions of Jasper and Newton counties. Do not plan
to cancel those at this time, as ensemble data indicates enough
of a chance given that the warning is already in effect. Wind
chills will be cool in the morning with mid and upper 20s expected
area wide.

Tomorrow night still looks to be the coolest night through the
forecast period with freezing temperatures expected in all zones
except St. Mary Parish and possibly Jefferson County. 

Otherwise the forecast has changed little until we get to Sunday
Night through Wednesday of next week. Model discrepancies
continue, however things do appear to be getting closer among the
guidance. The result was to increase temperatures about 5 degrees
on average through the period and temperatures actually go back
above normal ahead of the next front expected Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Will also have a chance of rain Sunday night
until the front clears Wednesday.

MARINE...
Will continue Gale warning through midnight for the coastal waters
and small craft advisory for the lakes and bays. Then gradually
ramp things down through the day tomorrow. Low water does not
appear to be an issue at this point as guidance remains above the
-1 foot mllw threshold for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  30  45  29  51 /  10   0   0   0 
LCH  35  48  32  54 /  20   0   0   0 
LFT  35  47  32  55 /  20   0   0   0 
BPT  36  49  35  55 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for LAZ027>033.

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Friday for GMZ470-472-
     475.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday morning for GMZ430-
     432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ450-452-455.

&&

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