Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
651 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION...Convection coverage is gradually decreasing as heating
is lost, however storms may be in VC at least for the next 2-3
hours. Mostly vfr conditions are expected through the period,
however scattered to numerous storms are expected again tomorrow.
Winds will light away from storms and generally vrb.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ 

Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level low crossing the FL
peninsula this afternoon...while another disturbance is noted
crossing the MS delta and moving into e-cntl LA ATTM. Local 88Ds
show plentiful convection associated with the latter impacting
mainly the ern zones right now...while 88Ds to our east show
quite a bit of shower activity associated with the former.
Satellite imagery/sfc obs indicate plenty of cloud cover shrouding
the area which is keeping temps down somewhat especially east of
the Sabine...although heat indices are still topping 100F along
and west of the US 171 corridor ATTM.

Ongoing diurnal convection will mostly diminish this evening as
usual with sunset/loss of heating...although forecast soundings
indicate so much moisture/sufficient instability to think that at
least widely scattered convection remains possible well into the
evening along lingering outflows from ongoing storms. Thereafter 
another round of nocturnal Gulf showers likely to pop up later
tonight which could move ashore toward sunrise.

Elevated rain chances remain in the forecast over the next
several days as the Gulf upper low pushes wwd, thanks to the
continuation of the copious moisture already in place across the
region...along with little capping. Accordingly max temps and heat
indices decrease quite a bit.

Unlike this time yesterday, rain chances stay a little elevated
later in the week despite the low departing to our west. The combo
of plentiful moisture, a lingering trof or weakness aloft and
daytime heating should still lead to scattered mainly
afternoon/early evening convection on into the weekend.

A mainly light srly flow is expected to continue on the coastal
waters with high pressure lingering over the ern Gulf/sern CONUS.
No flags are anticipated ATTM.


AEX  76  91  73  92 /  30  60  30  50 
LCH  78  90  76  89 /  30  60  40  60 
LFT  77  90  76  89 /  40  70  40  50 
BPT  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  40  60 


.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations