Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 260104
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
804 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018
updated pop/wx grids to account for radar trends as convection
begins popping up over the wrn zones along the sfc boundary.
Newer rain chances continue the earlier trend of undercutting MOS
per high res guidance, but are a little closer to medium range
guidance than previously.
Update out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
Overall, the forecast thinking from the 18z tafs remains unchanged
and only minor changes to account for timing/current observations
were needed. Cloud cover will increase and ceilings will lower
through the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will be accompanied by showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
The timing for frontal passage looks to be around 05z at kaex,
between 06z-08z at kbpt/klch, and 09z-11z at kara/klft. Northwest
winds around 10 knots will develop behind the front and continue
through the day Thursday. Skies will clear Thursday morning and
VFR conditions will continue through the day.
Previous discussion... /issued 206 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
wx map shows weak high pressure over the region, with light and
variable winds this afternoon. A cold front continues to move
southeast across c and NE TX, roughly just north of kcll to kggg
to ktxk. South of the front, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
prevail across the region, with temperatures in the lower to mid
80s this afternoon. Clear skies per visible satellite imagery.
Expecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy by the afternoon hours
should allow temperatures to rise in the lower to mid 80s along
and north of the I-10 corridor, upper 70s south to the coast.
The cold front expected to arrive later this evening into early
Thursday morning bringing scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly along the frontal passage. The latest hrrr
not to excited about convection along the front, only generating
scattered amounts. For this, lowered pops a bit later this evening
and overnight to 40-50% along and north of the I-10 corridor,
30-40% further south into the Gulf. Not expecting severe weather
with this event, Storm Prediction Center only outlining region in general thunderstorm
Cooler and drier air expected behind the front Thursday. Another
weak upper level system will bring a slight chance of precipitation
on Friday, mainly across central and south central Louisiana. For
the weekend into early next week, generally seasonal temperatures
expected with little to no chances of precipitation until late
Tuesday or Wednesday.
a cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters late
tonight into early Thursday. A brief period of elevated offshore
flow is expected behind the front. For this, included small craft
exercise caution for the 20-60 nm zones from 4-10 am Thursday.
Light to moderate offshore winds expected into the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 53 72 54 76 / 50 10 10 20
lch 58 75 56 77 / 50 10 10 10
lft 59 74 55 76 / 50 10 10 20
bpt 57 76 55 78 / 40 10 10 10
GM...small craft exercise caution from 4 am CDT Thursday through
Thursday morning for gmz470-472-475.