Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 132111
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
311 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
Discussion...upper level moisture beginning to stream into the
the area at this time on a westerly flow with the breakdown of an
associated upper ridge. Satellite imagery depicting considerable
cirrus over much of the forecast area. Temperatures running
generally around 60, just a few degrees below the norm.
Little change to the previous forecast. Looking at lows tonight
near 10 degrees above that of last night, with thursdays highs
returning to above the norm. Next frontal passage incoming late
Thursday but rain chances with feature are expected to remain
confined to the southern portion of the inland area, increasing
over the near coastal waters. Cooler temperatures then again
return for Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances ramp up area-wide for Saturday night into Sunday
associated with the approach of a cutoff low ejecting out of old
Mexico and associated surface cyclogenesis over the western Gulf
along old frontal boundary. Maintaining lower pops through Monday
and into Tuesday blending a drier European model (ecmwf) with an active GFS.
Marine...winds will trend light west to southwest overnight, then
trend light and variable Thursday ahead of our next frontal
passage late Thursday. Showers are expected to accompany this
boundary, followed by a strengthening offshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 37 62 39 52 / 0 0 10 10
lch 43 67 45 53 / 0 0 30 30
lft 42 66 43 51 / 0 0 30 40
bpt 44 68 46 54 / 0 0 30 20