Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klot 180702
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, Illinois
202 am CDT Wed Oct 18 2017
200 am CDT
High pressure is still stretched from central Texas northeast
through the Ohio Valley and into the mid Atlantic. A second and
stronger low pressure system will slide by north of the Canadian
border. Therefore, we can expect a near repeat of Tuesday, with
mostly clear skies, breezy southwest winds (approaching 30-35
mph), and highs in low 70s. The stronger northern low will send a
weak cold front toward the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Impacts will be minor, but we will see a small cooldown, slightly
more noticeable in far northeast Illinois. Winds will slacken and
veer to WNW, before weak high pressure spreads east of Lake
Michigan on Thursday afternoon, bringing brief onshore flow.
200 am CDT
Thursday through Tuesday...
The pattern Friday reverts to that of earlier in the week, with the
high over the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region expanding northward,
and the upstream low will now be ejecting from a deep/broad western
upper level trough axis. With seasonally slightly mild overnight
lows, Friday highs should easily cruise into the mid 70s.
The first half of the weekend still looks to be alright for most
locations as we await the arrival of the upper trough, but expect
clouds to thicken. Friday night will be quite mild for the latter
portion of October, and thus in spite of the clouds highs should
still hit the lower to maybe mid 70s. There are a few guidance
sources that paint a few lighter pre-frontal showers during the
day, but these don't look to be a big deal as moisture return
behind the departing high will be focused west of the area
Better rain chances return Saturday night into Sunday as the
upper trough will move through. A feed of 60+ dewpoints will
advect in ahead of it on a strong low level jet. Upper forcing
will be augmented by a strengthening upper jet, and there is still
a strong signal in a favorable ramp up in precipitation chances
by Saturday night or more so Sunday morning. The system does show
signs of splitting between a more intact low to the south and a
broad northern stream trough, with lend to the idea that this will
not a be a huge rain maker, but still a decent chance of some
rain. With plentiful clouds, instability will be tempered, but
there could be a few T-storms.
With the Post frontal air mass being of the Pacific origin,
temperatures now look to initially fall back to more seasonal levels
Sunday/Monday, but the upper jet will shift more meridional in the
tues/Wed time frame which would bring a bit more significant cold
front in during this time.
for the 06z tafs...
Winds will be the only aviation concern today as the surface
gradient continues to support gusty south-southwesterly winds.
Expect winds to become gusty again up into the lower 20 knots range
by mid morning, then up around 25 knots during the afternoon.
Otherwise, similar to Tuesday, expect these gusty winds to ease
VFR conditions continue to be expected through the period.
212 PM CDT
A decent October gale event for the north half of the lake appears
on track to develop Wednesday morning and persist into the overnight
hours. Small craft conditions are possible for the southern
nearshore, and there could also be a period of gale force gusts in
portions of the south half late Wednesday. This strong south to
southwest flow also will support considerable wave growth at the
north end of the lake. Winds relax Thursday and Thursday night,
especially toward the south end, before the gradient increases again
and remains strong through the first half of the weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front. Behind the front the southwest flow will
veer westerly by late in the weekend into early next week.
Lm...Small Craft Advisory...lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-
lmz745...9 am Wednesday to 3 am Thursday.
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