Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 251844
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
144 PM EST sun Feb 25 2018
a cold front will cross the region late today. That will
push our recent airmass with clouds, showers, and fog to
our south. High pressure with mild temperatures will move over
the area for the early and middle work week. Our next area of low
pressure will slide east over the region between Thursday and Friday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
overcast will remain, but rain has largely exited the region
this early afternoon - except close to the Bay which will exit
soon. Temp forecast will continue to be a struggle as lower 60s
in the central shen valley early this afternoon will be trying
to dislodge the cold air damming and temps around 50 over the
metros. Went on the far pessimistic side of temp guidance for
today, and that may still not be cold enough for the metros.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
clouds will remain through tonight until slowly breaking down
from northwest to southeast tomorrow during the day. A weak low scurrying
along the front to our south will temporarily swing some showers
back north towards our southern tier across central Virginia and S Maryland.
At this point, expecting they will stay just to our south. But
enough of a threat to include chance and pops down there Mon
morning. After that, mild high pressure moves across the region.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
A high pressure system will be moving away from our area on
Wednesday over Atlantic waters. Return flow will settle over
our area with high temperatures reaching the 50s and low 60s.
Mid level energy and a lifting warm front may cause showers on
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
A low pressure system will develop over the Midwest Wednesday night
into Thursday which will bring a very moist air mass over our
region. Precipitation associated to this system could begin early on
Thursday. The low will then push a cold front over US Thursday night
into Friday, as it lingers and intensifies offshore. Precipitation
could last into early Saturday. Expecting rain to be dominant p-
type...but upslope snow showers in the mountains are expected
late Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds over our area
and remains into Sunday.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
the big questions are in the next few hours as to the breakdown
of the low cigs. Just about every piece of guidance shows them
breaking down quickly this afternoon. But obs at 18z show them
holding tough where you would expect damming...all the way down
to cho and ezf. Vsbys should be much quicker to ease...where the
haven't already. Expect VFR tonight thru Tue with high pressure
Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday with scattered
showers over our area. A more substantial period of sub-VFR
is expected Thu into Friday as low pressure moves through the
marine fog and some gusty winds south of Annapolis and Indian
Head will be the main points of contention in the short term.
Many models showing marine fog being much slower to depart than
what is over land...possibly lasting through tonight in places.
Small craft adv is up for the above areas where winds are
expected to gust around 20 kt this afternoon.
After that...no marine concerns through midweek with high
pressure moving over the waters.
Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday and into Thursday
night. Winds will likely increase enough for advisories Friday
as low pressure intensifies offshore.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for