Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
632 PM CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016
updated for 00z aviation.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for all terminals through
the overnight hours as surface high pressure continues to reign. A
shortwave trough rotating around a low to the northeast will bring
some low clouds into northeast Arkansas in the morning hours, only
affecting the northern terminals, and thus creating some brief
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the period with
northerly winds picking back up (5-10 knots) tomorrow once
daytime mixing commences.
Previous discussion...(issued 235 PM CDT Thursday Sep 29 2016)
Short term...tonight through Saturday
a clear and cool day was seen today around the natural state with
breezy northerly conditions being seen around the state. Midday
readings had temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's
with dewpoints in the 40s. Winds will become light after sunset
with mostly clear skies continuing.
Main weather features in our forecast is a surface high pressure
centered to the north of the Great Lakes and an upper level low
centered over Indiana. This is resulting in deep northerly flow
across the region and will continue providing the state with cool
and dry air.
Going forecast looked good and made only some minor tweaks. Upper
level low will remain nearly stationary to our northeast. At this
point, have only increased clouds in the forecast...especially over
northeast Arkansas. Some models are trying to produce a little rain
on the backside of this upper level low in northeast portions of the
state. However at this point, have very low confidence that this
solution will occur and will keep with a dry forecast as a result.
Long term...Saturday night through Thursday night
the upper low over the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be gradually
exiting off to the NE during the weekend, and will bring some
ridging to the area. Daily Max temps will be creeping back up into
the lower 80's north to the upper 80's south by the middle of next
However another upper level trough will be moving across the western
US and a cold front will be dropping down across the plains. As the
trough digs in rain chances will return by late Tuesday, and with
the front approaching I have increased pops somewhat for Wednesday
and Thursday. There are some uncertainties about the timing of the
front, so for the time being I have not introduced anything above
the 30 pct level. The front should bring a nice cool down back to
the area for Thursday, with Max temps dropping by about 10 degrees
or so in many areas.
short term...65 / long term...53