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fxus64 klzk 190026 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
626 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Aviation...19/00z taf cycle

Area of light/moderate rain wl cont to affect southeastern Arkansas early
evening. Otherwise, low clouds, patchy rain/drizzle wl be noted
acrs the forecast area thru much of the pd, resulting in widespread MVFR/
IFR conds. Some locations may even drop to LIFR conds arnd
daybreak on Thu. Some improvement is expected late in the period as
low pres tracks acrs southeastern Arkansas and low lvl dry air begins to advect
into Arkansas FM the SW. /44/

Previous discussion...(issued 236 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017)

Long term...Friday night through Wednesday

The long term period has a decent amount of uncertainty. The overall
pattern early on is roughly agreed upon in the models, with notable
differences in the details. However model solutions diverge greatly
early Monday morning Onward.

In general broad upper troughing will be in place across the western
United States Friday night with a couple of shortwave troughs
lifting northeast from the Central Plains, and another heading our
direction across the Desert Southwest. The latter will intensify in
to a strong cutoff low that will traverse the northern parts of the
Gulf Coast states late Saturday through Monday morning. Friday night
and early Saturday morning may indeed be dry across much of the
state but the aforementioned southern stream shortwave will spread
rainfall back into, at least, the southern parts of the forecast
area after daybreak Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will follow Saturday evening through Sunday morning as the center of
the developing upper low moves over the arklatex region, with
lingering showers lasting into Sunday night as the system departs.

Beyond Sunday night, the forecast becomes uncertain. Some guidance
keeps a zonal pattern over the southern half of the United States
with several ripples in the to keep rain chances going, while others
develop a high amplitude upper pattern with high pressure and
dry/sunny conditions in Arkansas. Given the uncertainty, kept the
forecast dry from Monday morning Onward for now as any timing
changes in the wetter guidance would mean significant changes in
when to go with wet/dry conditions. Also played temperatures middle
of the Road as well.

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