Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 172303 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
603 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018
Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...
While some isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be possible early this
evening...expect any activity to diminish shortly after sunset.
Generally VFR conditions will be seen through the period...with
some isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain again possible on Mon afternoon.
Previous discussion...(issued 218 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018)
Short term...tonight through Tuesday
Widely scattered, weakly forced, single cell convection continues
to slowly develop across the forecast area again this afternoon,
per GOES-16 satellite and klzk radar data. Once again, this
activity will dissipate shortly after sunset.
Persistent upper ridge over the mid south is expected to move eastward,
while weakening during this period. This should allow for an
increase in afternoon/early evening weak convection for Monday
Near normal temperatures are expected during this period, with
afternoon heat index values generally averaging between 95 and
Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday
At the start of the long term portion of the forecast h500 ridging
will be in place across much of the southern and southeastern Continental U.S.
With a cutoff low in place roughly over Idaho and western Montana.
At the surface, high pressure will be situated over the southeast
and a stalled front will be north of the area.
There is good agreement among long term model solutions that the mid
level ridge that has been in place across the southeast will break
down somewhat as the cutoff low transitions southeastward toward the
middle part of the country. Southwesterly flow will be in place at
the surface and aloft which will help focus widespread Gulf moisture
across the state. With the stalled surface boundary in place north
of the area and disturbances riding along the SW flow aloft, rain
chances will be seen nearly every day in the long term portion of
More abundant cloud cover and occasional precipitation will help
keep temperatures in check by a few degrees, but humidity however
will remain high. &&