Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 222342
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
642 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017
upper low migrating slowly east across northern Arkansas this evening.
Lingering moisture with modest forcing producing areas of -ra with
patchy dz and br as well. For this taf cycle, precip lingers at
northern terminals with drying expected by 23/06z. Also holding on
to lower-end MVFR with gradual clearing west-to-east in the
23/06-12z period. Keeping vcsh mention for central and southern
terminals through 23/02-03z, although coverage is spotty and
confidence is not high. MVFR cigs lifting and clearing after
VFR prevails area wide after 23/06z. Winds will remain nwly to
wly with gusts Tuesday afternoon, particularly at northern
terminals, where gusts could exceed 20 kts.
Previous discussion...(issued 455 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017)
upper low continues slowly migrating across northern Arkansas this
evening. Residual moisture and sufficient upper forcing keeping
light rain and areas of drizzle, mainly in northern and eastern
zones. Spottier light showers continue developing in central and
Based on radar trends and general consensus among hi-res models,
bumped up pops through evening with gradual drying from the west
late tonight into the early morning hours Monday. (Cooper)
Previous discussion...(issued 231 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017)
short term...tonight through Tuesday
recent observations indicate scattered light rainfall, affecting
the northeast 2/3 of the forecast area. This activity is forced
by mid level energy now moving over extreme western Arkansas, as
well as a cold front moving across northwestern portions of the
state. Expect a continued decrease in coverage and intensity of
the precipitation through early evening.
A few sprinkles are possible across northeast sections Monday
morning, as the energy forms a closed low, and continues to the
east. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
this period. Near normal temperatures will prevail.
Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday
with the exception of Thursday and Thursday night, the big feature
of the long term periods will be below average temperatures.
Period will begin with a push of cold air down from Canada, as high
pressure moves down into the region on meridional upper flow. By
Thursday, the ridge will shift eastward as the upper flow becomes
more zonal in nature. Winds will become more southerly/
southwesterly, and this will allow temperatures to warm back to the
That being said, though, a bigger push of cold air is coming at the
end of the week. Deepening surface low pressure in the northern
plains will move down into the Great Lakes region. This will drag a
cold front into the mid south, with showers and thunderstorms
returning to the forecast by Friday.
Much colder air will push in behind the front during the late
Friday/early Saturday time frame, with temperatures falling.
Temperatures in most areas on Saturday could easily stay in the 50s
during the day. By Saturday night, cold high pressure will settle
into the region, and Sunday morning, there could be the potential
for some portions of the state to see a first freeze.