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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
505 am CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Aviation...
12z taf issuance
cold front currently crossing the I-20 corridor will slow and
settle along the Pecos River this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds
this morning will weaken and veer to the east later this
afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

Discussion...

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and southeast New
Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS valley. At the
sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, W/fropa thru kmaf by 10z.
This front will take temps well blo normal this afternoon, but a
quick rebound to above-normal is anticipated Wednesday as winds veer
around to return flow, and then take on a westerly component during
the afternoon for a little downslope warming action. Unfortunately,
this will be short-lived, as a much stronger Arctic front plows into
the region, W/fropa at kmaf around 04z Thu, bringing the coldest
temps this fall to the region. Biggest concerns this forecast will
be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as
models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west. Combined W/weak
isentropic upglide, a mix of precip could develop along and behind
the front. This looks to be a short event, but may make travel
hazardous on I-10 late Wednesday night/Thursday. Precip type is,
natch, the main challenge. The NAM suggests the column will not be
saturated deep enough for sn, and calls for a freezing rain scenario, whereas
the GFS is much more moist, favoring sn, especially in the east.
Staying pessimistic, we've opted for freezing rain in the west, and freezing rain or
snow in the east, mainly late Wed night into Thu morning, W/freezing rain
continuing in the mtns Thu afternoon. Qpfs should remain light, but
we'll re-issue an Special Weather Statement highliting these concerns. Frontal gap
winds will be on the rise at kgdp Wed night, but there are some
model disagreements as to how strong. For now, we'll just mention
this in the severe weather potential statement.

Temps Thursday should hover around freezing most locations, and
then slowly warm to normal by Saturday afternoon under northwest flow
aloft.A dry pattern then ensues under zonal flow aloft into the
extended, W/temps remaining above-normal thru the extended.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 49 38 61 28 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 55 37 61 30 / 0 0 0 10
Dryden 63 41 65 38 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 58 44 66 31 / 0 0 0 20
Guadalupe Pass 53 41 53 27 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 45 33 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 61 34 61 30 / 0 0 0 20
Midland Intl Airport 49 38 64 29 / 0 0 0 10
Odessa 51 39 64 29 / 0 0 0 10
Wink 53 37 66 30 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

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