Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmaf 260446
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1146 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018
see aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected at the West Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds should generally be out
of the south at 5 to 15 mph through most of the day. Another cold
front is expected to plunge toward the region late this afternoon
and should arrive at the southeast New Mexico terminals first at
kcnm and khob around 24/23z and the West Texas terminals by
25/06z. North to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusty are
expected behind this front tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
00z taf issuance...
VFR conditions have returned to all but fst early this evening
however low cigs are clearing quickly and fst will return to VFR
shortly. Northerly winds this evening will veer to the south
overnight and remain fairly light through the taf period. Otherwise,
VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals tonight and
Previous discussion... /issued 218 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
A cool surface ridge will hold sway over the region tonight, and
along with fairly light winds and clearing skies, result in a chilly
Thursday morning. Temperatures will rebound to near normal levels
Thursday afternoon as the ridge shifts eastward quickly. A fast
moving shortwave trough within the persistent northwest flow aloft
will then send another cold front south through the area Thursday
night. The forecast will be mainly dry through Friday as most of
the mid level dynamics remain well to the northeast of the region.
An isolated storm or two could develop over the Presidio valley/Big
Bend Thursday night as the front pushes through, but not expecting
much. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal Friday,
and a little closer to normal Saturday as the surface ridge behind
Thursday night's front lingers. The flow aloft will become
southwesterly thereafter, with an isolated thunderstorm or two
possible over the Presidio valley/Big Bend possible Friday/Saturday
in meager low level moisture return.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday, but will vault above normal
Monday/Tuesday as southwesterly flow increases ahead of a deepening
West Coast ua trough. Low level moisture will spread into the
higher terrain Sunday afternoon due to height/surface pressure
falls, with a timely shortwave trough possibly aiding thunderstorm
development off the higher terrain. Any storms that develop could
spread eastward Sunday evening, but instability will be limited due
to the relatively mild high temperatures Sunday afternoon. A
dryline will sharpen up Monday afternoon with storms again possible.
Model differences do not offer much support for a definite solution
right now, but it does appear the dryline will shift eastward by
Tuesday with any storms developing then forming east of the forecast
area. Fully expect models to offer several different scenarios
between now and then, so stay tuned. Fire weather could become a
concern Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon as hot, dry and windy conditions
possibly return, especially over the higher terrain/southeast nm.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 42 83 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 43 83 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 46 83 57 81 / 0 0 10 0
Fort Stockton 45 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 47 77 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 41 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 35 83 48 71 / 0 0 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 42 83 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 42 83 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 43 87 51 78 / 0 0 0 0