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fxus64 kmaf 292334 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
634 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017



a low chance of storms tonight south of the Pecos River... have
not included them in fst or peq tafs but may have to add.
Otherwise gusty east wind should decrease after sunset. Could see
some morning stratus with MVFR cigs at maf and to a lesser extent


Previous discussion... /issued 209 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017/


A few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and
Tuesday will transition to more of a heavy rainfall threat Tuesday
into Wednesday, as a weak shortwave trough tonight/Tuesday is
followed by a stronger shortwave trough, and the actual upper
trough, Tuesday night/Wednesday.

After near normal high temperatures today, it appears highs will
decrease the next couple of days, and bottom out Wednesday when rain
chances will likely be best. Heating of the higher terrain should
be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon,
mainly along and south of Interstate 10 where the best instability
resides. A couple of storms could produce hail, strong winds and
brief heavy rainfall due to SBCAPE rising to at least 1500-2000
j/kg, and mid level shear and lapse rates increasing/steepening to
35kt/7.5c/km respectively. A weak shortwave trough could aid
convection developing off the higher terrain over Chihuahua, which
will then spread eastward perhaps into western portions of the
forecast area late tonight. Just how much convection makes it
into the forecast area will determine how everything unfolds
during the day Tuesday, as the mentioned shortwave trough
gradually traverses the area. Will continue to carry the chance
of thunderstorms already going in the forecast tonight and
Tuesday, with maybe slight adjustments.

As briefly mentioned initially in this discussion above, a more
significant shortwave trough/ua trough is expected to impinge upon
the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. The threat of severe storms
will likely decrease due to less instability from less heating from
precipitation and cloud cover, and weaker shear. But, the threat
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will increase due to pwats
increasing to 1-2 S.D. Above normal and weak flow contributing to
slow thunderstorm movement, possible training. Although
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Wednesday
afternoon, there will be plenty of instability to fuel heavy
rainfall producing thunderstorms. The timing of all this will be
Dicey though since widespread convection late Tuesday night/
Wednesday morning would definitely alter when, where, and if heavy
rainfall would occur Wednesday afternoon/night. Despite this
uncertainty, will still carry hefty pops for these periods. Will
not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but one could be
forthcoming within the next 24 hours, especially concerning
Wednesday, although a watch could easily end up being in effect
for Tuesday too.

Model differences accumulate Thursday and after, so we could see a
drying and warming trend under an expanding upper ridge, or a
continuation of wet and near to below temps. Will tend between the
two different scenarios, although moist ground and warm to hot
temperatures could yield more convection, especially Thursday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 63 86 66 78 / 0 20 30 60
Carlsbad 62 85 63 78 / 30 30 50 60
Dryden 67 81 67 80 / 30 30 50 60
Fort Stockton 66 83 65 80 / 30 30 60 70
Guadalupe Pass 59 78 60 73 / 30 40 50 60
Hobbs 57 84 60 75 / 10 30 50 60
Marfa 57 79 54 77 / 40 50 60 50
Midland Intl Airport 63 85 65 77 / 10 30 50 70
Odessa 63 85 65 77 / 10 30 50 70
Wink 62 86 64 78 / 20 30 50 70


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...

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