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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
606 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016

Discussion...

The latest aviation discussion is included below.

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Aviation...

MVFR conditions will prevail at most area terminals tonight, but
MVFR ceilings and visibility could occur with thunderstorms and rain at khob and kcnm
this evening, with kfst and kpeq possibly seeing low clouds and fog
later tonight. Thunderstorms and rain may redevelop at kcnm later tonight, but will
hold off any mention for now and monitor. 67

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Previous discussion... /issued 412 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016/

Bottom line up top...

* Flash Flood Watch extended until 6 am MDT/7 am CDT Wednesday
morning.
* Impacted areas will include the upper trans Pecos of West Texas
and much of southeastern New Mexico, where 1 to 2 inch per hour
rainfall over saturated ground will lead to flash flooding.
* Unsettled conditions continue through the work week, but drier
and warmer this weekend.

A persistent band of convection extends from Reeves County Texas
north across eastern Lea and western eddy counties in New Mexico.
Additional low-topped convection is noted over the guadalupes and
southern sacramentos. As was the case yesterday, the air mass
remains moist with precipitable water values between 1.5" and
1.75", well above the 90th percentile climatologically. Moist
easterly inflow and upslope will keep the best rain chances over
southeastern New Mexico tonight and Wednesday. Tall skinny cape
sounding profiles and a deep (2.5 - 3.0km) warm layer suggests
efficient heavy rain producing storms.

Elsewhere more scattered activity is expected overnight into
Wednesday as some drying is noted aloft, thinning out convection
some. The same ingredients for flash flooding that is over
southeastern New Mexico is present over a large portion of West
Texas, thus convection will have the potential for very heavy
rain, with flash flooding likely across areas which received heavy
rains since Sunday.

After Wednesday, rain chances begin to wane as drying begins to
overtake the rich air mass. However, the potential is there for
flash flooding rains, just not as much coverage as we've seen
these past few days. With that temperatures warm up as well. Highs
will stay in the 80s to near 90 through Thursday, but warm into
the 85 to 95 degree range for Friday through Sunday. Lows will
generally be in the 60s to near 70. Drying continues early next
week with highs staying in the 85 to 95 degree range and lows in
the 60s.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 69 86 70 85 / 40 30 30 40
Carlsbad 66 78 67 83 / 70 60 40 50
Dryden 71 90 73 92 / 40 20 20 30
Fort Stockton 67 84 67 85 / 50 30 30 30
Guadalupe Pass 59 73 60 75 / 50 50 40 40
Hobbs 64 77 65 79 / 70 50 40 50
Marfa 61 77 60 79 / 30 40 20 30
Midland Intl Airport 68 85 69 85 / 40 30 30 40
Odessa 67 84 69 84 / 40 30 30 40
Wink 69 84 69 86 / 60 40 30 40

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Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for central Lea County-
Eddy County plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
northern Lea County-southern Lea County.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
Pecos-Presidio valley-Reeves County and upper trans Pecos-
Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

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12/70

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