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fxus64 kmaf 231437 
afdmaf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
937 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017

Update...

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the area within a very
moist airmass. An mesoscale convective vortex remains nearly stationary over
Midland/Odessa where storms continue to develop. Unsure of how
things will pan out this afternoon with the current widespread
cloud cover, but just a little heating will likely fire more
storms. Lowered high temperatures a few degrees and increased pops
for the rest of the day.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 605 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017/

Discussion...

Area radars show isolated convection persisting in an mesoscale convective vortex just
south of kmaf. We'll do a quick update to expand morning coverage
further east to catch these cells. Updates out shortly.

Previous discussion... /issued 601 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017/

Discussion...

See the 12z aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms through the period
with the best chances this afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms,
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will mostly be light and
variable.

Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017/

Discussion...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as persistence rules. Area
radars show convection continuing to slowly diminish, W/batch of
storms that came through kmaf last evening congealing into an mesoscale convective vortex in
the southern Permian Basin, while a line of storms that moved south
into Lea County persists near khob. Radar estimates as much as 2-3"
of rain fell in some locations, especially the Permian Basin.

Sat imagery shows lots of convective debris over the area, and
W/abundant moisture and saturated soils in place, temps will
struggle to reach normal today. A rich Theta-E ridge remains in
place, extending from Chihuahua thru Texas and into Arkansas and beyond.
West/multiple residual boundaries knocking about, and continued upslope
return flow, chances are good for redevelopment of widespread
convection this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. These
chances will dwindle after today as the upper trough over the
Texas/la coast moves east and the upper ridge recenters over Texas
and strengthens. This will confine any convection, if any, to the
higher terrain out west into the extended. Temperatures will slowly
increase throughout the week, nearing the triple digits by the
weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 91 74 96 75 / 30 10 10 10
Carlsbad 93 72 93 72 / 50 10 10 10
Dryden 97 75 96 76 / 40 10 10 10
Fort Stockton 94 73 94 73 / 50 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 81 68 83 68 / 50 10 10 10
Hobbs 90 69 90 69 / 50 10 10 10
Marfa 85 64 87 64 / 60 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 91 74 96 75 / 40 10 10 10
Odessa 92 74 95 74 / 40 10 10 10
Wink 93 73 96 74 / 40 10 10 10

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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