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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
104 PM CDT Monday Sep 26 2016


Strong northeast winds have lingered through Guadalupe Pass early
this afternoon. However, expect speeds to drop off in the next hour
or so below 40 mph sustained as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes, and surface pressure rises continue to decrease. Therefore,
have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire at 26/18z.
A surface ridge over the region will linger here through Wednesday
and provide stable conditions along with below normal temps this
afternoon and Tuesday before readings rise to near normal levels
Wednesday. Low level easterly flow and isentropic upglide in the
mid levels will keep a canopy of clouds over the area tonight and
Tuesday and provide enough lift for light rain, but mainly along and
south of Interstate 10, except also in the Guadalupe Mountains.
Will keep pops going tonight and Tuesday over the southern and
western reaches of the forecast area into Tuesday. The cutoff low
is over the central Baja Peninsula this afternoon, but will lift
north into socal Wednesday before ejecting northeastward through the
Great Basin ahead of the next western Continental U.S. Upper trough. Upper
ridging will take over across the region Tuesday and beyond, but the
above mentioned next upper trough will eventually suppress the upper
ridge southward this weekend.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly next weekend as an upper
trough approaches from the west. In typical fashion, models are
already vacillating on the strengthen, depth and timing of this ua
trough. It does appear we could see temperatures rise above normal
late next weekend into early next week, as a dryline forms over the
area. The forecast will contain at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday over the higher terrain as
the upper ridge flattens. Pops will also be carried in the forecast
Sunday and Monday for the possibility of the dryline forming and
moving east across the area, perhaps on Monday.



Areas of light to moderate showers are expected to continue mainly
for areas along and south of the Pecos River through the overnight
period. Elevated and gusty northeast winds will become lighter
during the afternoon and become variable after sunset. There is a
chance of low ceilings and visibilities developing after sunset
especially for hob, ink, fst, and peq.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 53 78 55 84 / 10 10 0 0
Carlsbad 53 74 55 82 / 10 10 10 0
Dryden 58 75 60 85 / 50 20 10 10
Fort Stockton 53 72 57 83 / 40 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 49 69 54 75 / 30 20 10 10
Hobbs 54 74 54 81 / 10 10 0 0
Marfa 53 67 53 77 / 50 20 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 55 76 55 84 / 10 10 0 0
Odessa 55 74 55 83 / 10 10 0 0
Wink 56 75 57 85 / 10 10 10 0


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...



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