Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmaf 231725
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1125 am CST Fri Feb 23 2018
conditions rapidly improving... all taf sites will be VFR soon.
Expect to briefly see a return of IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys at maf
sometime after midnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 1008 am CST Fri Feb 23 2018/
dense fog advisory has expired.
satellite and surface observations show that fog is quickly
lifting across the area. Clouds will lift around noon or shortly
thereafter in most areas. Updates have been issued.
Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CST Fri Feb 23 2018/
not exactly optimal conditions for fog with upper clouds streaming
over the area this morning, but low level moisture is circulating
around a surface high moving off to the east and residual cool
temperatures are allowing the boundary layer to become saturated.
Several sites are reporting 1/4 mile visibility so have issued a
dense fog advisory for this morning for much of the Permian Basin
with conditions improving around mid morning.
Tonight a large upper trough will move out of the western states
and into the Central Plains. Strong winds on the southern
periphery of this trough will mix into the Guadalupe Mountains,
hence the upgrade to a High Wind Warning for that area. The trough
moves east Saturday sending a Pacific front across Texas that will
tap into very little Canadian air, so temps will not cool much, if
any, behind the front. It's biggest impact will be to our east
where beneficial rains are possible.
Behind the trough, zonal flow will keep US dry with temperatures
near normal for this time of year. The next trough digs into The
Four Corners area next Wednesday bringing a return of
southwesterly flow and some instability. The GFS is showing
precip developing in our County Warning Area Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of
the trough, but given the westerly flow and likely dry airmass
will keep rain chances out of the extended forecast at this time.
The cold and moist conditions we have seen as of late will be on the
way out today. A storm system will approach our area from the west
over the next few days and will bring big changes. Elevated fire
weather conditions are possible this afternoon across the Guadalupe
Mountains where rh's will fall to near 15 percent with winds around
20 mph. An upper trough will pass to our north Saturday bringing
with it much drier air and windy conditions. Rfti's will near
critical values Saturday afternoon, but erc's will likely not
recover due to the cool damp weather we saw over the last few days.
A possible exception will be west of the Pecos River where erc
values may near the 50-60 percentile. An rfd will at least be needed
and will monitor conditions for a possible upgrade to a rfw.
Conditions Sunday will be similar before winds diminish and moisture
returns next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 60 45 63 31 / 20 30 10 0
Carlsbad 69 37 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 72 48 76 40 / 0 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 71 42 62 36 / 0 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 63 34 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 66 35 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 70 31 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 65 44 62 32 / 10 20 0 0
Odessa 66 43 61 32 / 10 10 0 0
Wink 69 37 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
nm...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday
for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Texas...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday