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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1130 am CST sun Feb 26 2017

Discussion...

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.



&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. West/SW winds will
generally be around 10-15kt, though a few gusts to 20-25kt will be
possible this afternoon at cnm, hob, and ink. Winds will decrease
slightly overnight through Monday morning, before increasing and
becoming gusty again near/just beyond the end of the forecast
period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CST sun Feb 26 2017/

Discussion...
an upper trough over California this morning levels an approaching upper
trough will swing across Arizona and nm today as a stronger trough
farther north moves over the Washington/or coast. This trough will merge
with a southern stream trough as it moves southeast moving over the Great
Basin early Tuesday and crossing The Rockies that evening. An upper
ridge will start to build in behind that trough but will have to
monitor a trough moves over Mexico next weekend.

Had a high wind watch today for the Guadalupe Mountains but it is
looking very marginal so went ahead and canceled it. Could see
briefly hitting high wind speed in the guadalupes this afternoon as
a shortwave passes near the area but not convinced it will make the
time requirement. Tomorrow looking better for high wind in the
guadalupes with 700mb wind of 45kts in good SW flow so will keep
that watch in effect.

Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer today as recovery from
recent front with a S to SW wind pushing readings into the 70s.
Warmer still on Monday with 70s and 80s expected with 80s spreading
northward Tuesday. A cold front Wednesday will knock highs back
into the 50s north... 60s central... and 70s south. The cooler
weather should continue through the rest of the work week with
readings warming next weekend.

Should see some increasing clouds from the west as Pacific moisture
flows over from the west. However the low levels remain dry with no
precipitation expected this week.

Fire weather...
minimum relative humidity/S ranging from 5 to 15 percent will be common across most
areas today however critical fire weather conditions look to remain
confined to the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon with 20 foot
winds remaining above critical speeds for an extended period of
time. A red flag warning is in effect for this area through this
afternoon. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across portions of southeast New Mexico and the upper trans
Pecos as west winds near or briefly exceed 20 mph. Previously
thought some areas could see critical fire weather conditions Monday
however the timing of the higher wind speeds don't seem to match up
with the critical relative humidity/S and think maybe a fire danger statement may
be more appropriate. Will continue to monitor the potential and make
adjustments later if needed. Otherwise, the best day see critical
fire weather looks to be Tuesday as strong westerly winds expand
east with areawide min relative humidity/S 10-15 percent expected. Stay tuned.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 72 43 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 73 43 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 79 50 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 78 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 62 39 63 45 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 69 37 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 72 34 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 73 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 74 44 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 76 41 79 43 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...red flag warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
Mountains.

High wind watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Texas...red flag warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
Mountains.

High wind watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
Guadalupe Mountains.

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