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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
600 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018

Discussion...
see 00z aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...
light east to southeast winds and VFR conditions will remain the
next 24 hours.

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Previous discussion... /issued 238 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018/

Discussion...as of 2:30 PM CDT Sunday...the only thing consistent
is the inconsistency of the models.

Currently...radar is indc a few weak echoes out to our west. Both
juarez and El Paso have only received a trace of rain...basically
enough to get your car or truck dirty. There could be a few
showers in the Guadalupe mtns from a weak southern stream
shortwave this aftn but they won't amount to much...if anything.

The 12z European model (ecmwf) has come in much drier than the previous run
whereas the GFS is fairly similar in the short-term to its
previous run. An upper low over Arkansas will move slowly east-northeast
with a ridge building in the west. An upper trough in the northern
rockies will drop southeast thru the plains. After warming temps Monday
and especially Tuesday a strong cold front will drop south thru
the area Tuesday night/Wednesday. It will be significantly cooler
on Wednesday...but the European model (ecmwf) is further east with the moisture and
cooler air...therefore it is drier and not as cool as the GFS.
Both models have very High Gap winds thru gdp...but that doesn't
seem likely being the end of April. Therefore...while have strong
winds went below MOS guidance. Nevertheless...a high wind watch
might be required for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for
gdp...will see what later model runs show.

The 12z European model (ecmwf) keeps the County Warning Area dry thru the week and next weekend as
well with weak ridging over the intermountain west. The GFS is
significantly wetter. Have lowered the pops in the extended quite
a bit in deference to the European model (ecmwf). If the 00z model suite follows
the European model (ecmwf) trend extended pops will need to be further lowered.

Strobin

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 52 82 60 90 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 53 85 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 57 85 62 94 / 10 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 55 85 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 54 77 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 51 80 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 49 80 54 85 / 10 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 53 83 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 53 83 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 55 85 62 93 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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