Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmaf 240518 
afdmaf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1218 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Discussion...

Please see the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
to southeasterly winds tonight will veer to the southwest at all
terminals by Monday afternoon and increase, with gusts to 20-30kt
expected areawide. Higher gusts will be possible at cnm Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 234 PM CDT sun Apr 23 2017/

Discussion...
it has been a beautiful Spring day with clear skies, light winds,
and highs slightly below normal. That will come to an end tomorrow
as increasing zonal flow sends temps back above normal, reaching
the 90s in many locations. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will
approach High Wind Warning criteria Monday but the stronger winds
will not arrive until Tuesday as a trough moves out of the Pacific
northwest and into the central rockies. A high wind watch may be
needed for the Guadalupe Mountains for Tuesday in the next 24
hours. The trough will be too far north to provide US with rain
chances so unfortunately we will only see hot and windy conditions
ahead of the trough followed with a cold front on Wednesday
dropping temperatures back down to near normal.

A transition away from zonal flow will occur at the of the week as
a strong upper low digs into The Four Corners region early
Saturday. This low will be farther south than the one expected in
the next 48 hours so we may see some precipitation in the area
from this system. Current models are showing the bulk of the
rainfall to our north but this could certainly change over the
next several days and bears watching.

Hennig

Fire weather...
above average temperatures will combine with windy and dry
conditions beginning Monday heightening fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less will extend as far
east as the central Permian Basin on Monday with many places
experiencing minimum relative humidity values in the single digits. Winds of 20 mph
or greater will likely be along and west of the upper trans Pecos on
Monday. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
plains for Monday. Will not issue a watch for other areas that may
reach the wind and humidity criteria due to Greenup from recent
rains. Fire weather concerns will be even greater on Tuesday due to
winds increasing and low relative humidity values across the whole area.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 72 51 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 76 50 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 75 54 89 59 / 0 0 10 0
Fort Stockton 75 56 95 62 / 0 0 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 71 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 72 49 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 73 47 84 47 / 0 0 10 0
Midland Intl Airport 72 53 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 72 54 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 75 53 96 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains-southeast plains.

Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations