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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
616 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Discussion...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become westerly to northwesterly during the late morning to
afternoon hours. Winds will become elevated with some gusts
possible out of the south to southeast around or after 00z Sunday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 244 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/

Discussion...

An outflow boundary, if not two, from convection in the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma will push south into the forecast area this
morning. These features may take a degree or two off high
temperatures this afternoon over portions of southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin, but it will still be very hot
areawide. Will expand the heat advisory a little to include Eddy
County in southeast New Mexico, and the Marfa Plateau in West Texas,
otherwise it will stay the same.

The upper ridge over the region will be flattened more today as a
weak shortwave trough moves overhead. Since dry air will spread
eastward due to the slight increase in westerly flow aloft, expect
convection to be relegated to the eastern Permian Basin, Stockton
plateau and lower trans Pecos this afternoon/evening along a
dryline. Intense surface heating will send SBCAPE soaring to at
least 3000 j/kg along this feature. Since mid level lapse rates
will be near 8 c/km, and surface temp/dewpoint spreads 40-50
degrees, expect a few severe storms with strong winds being the
primary threat, along with hail and brief heavy rainfall. The ridge
will retreat more Sunday, with more thunderstorms possible over the
Davis/Glass Mountains, and Big Bend region due to increasing
southeasterly low level winds, with pretty much the same result as
Saturday.

Convection could persist over the higher terrain Monday and Tuesday
before the upper ridge begins to strengthen some. The expansion/
strengthening of the upper ridge may be temporary though as medium
range models indicate more weakness in it by mid next week, so
convection may not be out of the question, not to mention some high
temperatures below 100 degrees.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 107 78 102 76 / 10 20 10 0
Carlsbad 108 72 107 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 106 78 102 77 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Stockton 108 76 105 74 / 10 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 101 72 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 102 70 104 70 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 101 62 99 60 / 0 10 10 20
Midland Intl Airport 107 78 104 76 / 0 10 0 0
Odessa 106 77 104 75 / 0 10 0 0
Wink 109 75 109 75 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...heat advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for Eddy County plains-southern Lea County.

Texas...heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for Andrews-Big Bend area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
Mountains area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa
Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio valley-
Reagan-Reeves County and upper trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-
Ward-Winkler.

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