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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
213 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017


After another warm day today, temperatures look to drop below
normal for at least a few days, with increasing rain chances
areawide tonight and Wednesday. This afternoon, similar to
previous days, diurnally driven thunderstorms have already begun
to develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected across the
higher terrain and adjacent plains, and isolated storms further
east across The Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. Given weak shear,
and only marginal lapse rates at best, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds look to be the main threats. Areas that have received
appreciable rainfall over the past several days could also
experience localized flash flooding. These storms are expected to
weaken with the loss of heating this evening, however, another
round of more widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop
southward into the area overnight tonight ahead of an advancing
cold front, which is currently located across the central Texas
Panhandle. The most likely of scenarios, echoed by latest
guidance, is for storms to develop along the front across the
favored higher terrain of eastern New Mexico, and then progress
south-southeastward across southeast New Mexico and the northern
Permian Basin. There remains some uncertainty as to how far south
these storms will progress once into the area, as tonight's low
level jet will be fairly weak, and if the storms become cold pool
dominated, the outflow may cause storms to diminish in the
vicinity of I-20 tomorrow morning. The front looks to at least
make it to the Pecos River by tomorrow afternoon, and while there
exists discrepancy among models regarding precipitation coverage
along/behind the front, increased cloud cover and cold advection
will result in cooler temperatures tomorrow afternoon,
particularly across the northern half of the forecast area.
Widespread precipitation or a faster southward progression of the
front could yield even cooler temperatures for a larger portion of
the area, though will stick with highs in the low to middle 80s
north and over higher terrain increasing to the low to middle 90s
through the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys. And, while severe
weather is not expected, precipitable water values around 1.50"
will maintain the heavy rainfall threat, along with the continued
potential for localized flooding.

Late this week into the upcoming weekend, there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in the forecast due to a potential tropical system
that is progged to take shape in the Bay of Campeche over the next
48 hours, and eventually impact the East Texas coast. While the
system and associated rainfall is expected to remain well to the
east of the area, the amount of westward progression could make a
big difference in both temperatures and precipitation chances
across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The upper pattern
looks to remain amplified across the conus, with a ridge in place
over the western half of the country, and a broad trough across
the east. If a shortwave rounding the upper ridge manages to drop
down, it would act to eject the remnants of the tropical system
quickly northeastward toward Louisiana, while another potential
outcome is for the remnants of the system to become absorbed by
the broad eastern Continental U.S. Trough, and remain fairly slow-moving over
east-central Texas. The more progressive solution would yield
minimal impacts across the area aside from increased Gulf moisture
which could result in better rain chances into the weekend. If
the storm were to advance further west, and potentially stall out
as some guidance indicates, the area could be affected by
subsidence, yielding warmer and drier conditions. Given the lack
of agreement and run-to-run continuity, and the fact that the
center of circulation is only now making it off the Yucatan
Peninsula and over open water, will not deviate too much from the
going forecast at this time. That is, trending temperatures cooler
through Saturday, and then moderating back toward normal late in
the weekend and early next week, with at least a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 72 88 71 89 / 40 50 30 30
Carlsbad 70 90 70 89 / 50 30 20 40
Dryden 75 96 75 95 / 10 20 20 30
Fort Stockton 71 91 70 91 / 20 40 20 30
Guadalupe Pass 65 83 64 81 / 40 30 20 40
Hobbs 67 85 67 84 / 60 40 20 40
Marfa 63 84 60 85 / 20 40 20 40
Midland Intl Airport 72 89 71 88 / 40 50 30 30
Odessa 72 89 70 88 / 40 50 20 30
Wink 72 93 72 91 / 40 40 20 30


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...

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