Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmaf 230334
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1034 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017
Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 256.
A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward over the
eastern Permian Basin, and expect the storms could move out of the
area around 23/06z. Until then, there appears to be enough
instability for a few of these storms to produce strong winds or
hail. Therefore, will leave the eastern most counties in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 256, but trim the western counties
where storms have already past through, and there is little
expectation of redevelopment. A cold front will move into the
area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and
behind it. Do not think there will be any more severe storms at
that time. An update will follow shortly for these changes.
Previous discussion... /issued 548 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017/
The latest aviation discussion is included below.
Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00z, so have
included a mention of thunderstorms and rain in all area terminals. Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail. Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04z too. A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it. Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17z.
Previous discussion... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017/
Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof in vicinity of nrn nm
tracking se within northwest flow aloft with trof axis extending SW
across nm. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern nm/West
Texas it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level lr's 7h-5h of 8-8.5 lr's and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 j/kg result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern nm too. This is a good pattern for tstms (mcs)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km srh do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. Nam12 continues to have the quantitative precipitation forecast Max across the E
and GFS a little farther W. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between ink-snk. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far southeast nm or west pb
and another off to the NW initiating in ern nm or the wrn S plain.
The forecast already has high pops in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue am and models are in
agreement that Post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31c and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the u90s-l100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn cwfa, may be storm in
Terrell co.. a little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 57 72 52 85 / 50 50 10 0
Carlsbad 55 74 51 91 / 20 10 0 0
Dryden 64 78 57 86 / 30 40 10 0
Fort Stockton 59 72 54 89 / 30 40 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 54 68 52 85 / 10 10 0 0
Hobbs 52 69 48 84 / 40 20 10 0
Marfa 53 75 48 88 / 10 20 10 0
Midland Intl Airport 56 72 53 85 / 50 40 10 0
Odessa 56 71 53 85 / 50 40 10 0
Wink 58 74 52 89 / 30 30 10 0