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fxus64 kmaf 182331 
afdmaf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
531 PM CST sun Feb 18 2018

Discussion...
see aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
radar show a few storms passing just S of maf with rain showers to the SW,
we opted to keep ts out of the tafmaf based on movement. There is
the possibility of redevelopment later this evening and again
toward morning. Otherwise windy conditions will persist at maf,
fst, hob until around 06z, then increase again around 18z Mon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CST sun Feb 18 2018/

Discussion...
south winds are bringing moisture into West Texas and increasing
low level instability. Some evidence of this can be seen west of
the Pecos River where heating and orographics are causing a field
of cumulus to develop. However there is a cap in place and with
no trigger farther east other than weak afternoon heating, it
will be difficult for deep convection to form. The hrrr has been
showing a lone storm forming near maf the past few runs so do not
anticipate much coverage in the Permian Basin this afternoon.
Should anything form, there will be enough potential instability
and shear that any storm could become marginally severe so will
have to keep an eye on this for the next few hours.

This week will be interesting with a quasi-stationary West Coast
trough keeping our area under southwesterly upper flow. This
pattern normally enhances precip chances though abundant moisture
is restricted to the eastern Permian Basin and so will be rain
chances this week. A cold front arrives Wednesday which could
expand rain chances farther west but otherwise the best rain
chances will be in the east. Temperatures will be above normal
until the frontal passage on Wednesday, with cooler temps lasting
into Thursday before conditions get warmer for the end of the
week.

Hennig

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 59 78 53 73 / 20 0 20 0
Carlsbad 52 78 47 66 / 10 10 0 0
Dryden 58 84 56 83 / 10 10 30 0
Fort Stockton 55 81 50 77 / 20 10 20 0
Guadalupe Pass 47 64 39 55 / 10 10 0 0
Hobbs 47 72 43 65 / 10 0 0 0
Marfa 43 72 37 68 / 10 10 10 0
Midland Intl Airport 55 79 51 72 / 20 0 20 0
Odessa 53 76 51 71 / 20 0 20 0
Wink 49 83 46 72 / 10 10 10 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...High Wind Warning from 2 am to 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.

Texas...High Wind Warning from 2 am to 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
Mountains.

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