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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
305 am CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Discussion...

Another cold front currently moving through the region will little
fanfare will keep temperatures a little below normal today and
Friday, and near normal Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will
dig south over The Four Corners region today, then drop more
south/southwestward into a former cutoff low over the Mexican state
of Sonora tonight. The current crop of progs are dropping this
feature a little more quickly southwestward than yesterday, which
will limit the opportunity for precipitation over southwest Texas.
Will still keep a slight chance of rain, perhaps mixed with snow,
there tonight as the atmospheric temperature profile has changed
somewhat due to the different proximity of the upper feature. Since
surface temperatures are marginal, including in the mountains, will
make a mention of light rain/snow mix with little to no accumulation
in the hazardous weather outlook.

Another shortwave trough will dig southward along the West Coast
Friday night/Saturday in tandem with a stronger shortwave trough
over the Great Basin. This will promote the cutoff low over
mexico's ejection over the region Saturday. Some progs are
indicating light rain over the Permian Basin Saturday, but the upper
system is weakening, and there is a lot of dry air to overcome in
the lower levels of the atmosphere, so will keep only a low mention
over southern reaches of the forecast area. A Lee surface trough
will strengthen over the southern U.S. Plains and result in a warmup
over the region Sunday. Solutions for the upper pattern begin to
diverge Saturday and after. Some form a cutoff low well off the
southern Baja Peninsula by Sunday/Sunday night, and sweep an upper
trough eastward to the north of the region. Others keep the upper
energy consolidated and bring an upper trough over Mexico and the
forecast area Sunday night/ Monday. For now, will tend the forecast
toward the majority of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, that
is, a mainly dry forecast and near to slightly above temperatures
for Monday through Thursday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 56 30 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 54 28 54 28 / 0 10 0 0
Dryden 62 38 57 35 / 0 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 57 31 54 33 / 0 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 48 29 46 29 / 0 10 0 0
Hobbs 52 25 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 63 31 47 24 / 10 20 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 55 29 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 55 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 55 28 55 29 / 0 10 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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