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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
412 am CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Discussion...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. No
clouds.

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Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

Discussion...as of 4:00 am CDT Tuesday...skies are clear as far
as the eye can see (or satellite). Both WV and infrared imagery shows
a deep dry airmass over the Southern Plains with no clouds over Texas
and nm. The 00z maf radiosonde observation showed only 0.16 inches of precipitable water. With clear
skies and light winds temps this early morning are in the 40s to
lower 50s.

Models show a ridge centered over Southern California/AZ/Sonora Mexico.
This will continue the weak northwest flow aloft. Temps will be warmer
today as the flow aloft transition to zonal and Lee sfc troffing
develops. Dry and above normal temps are in store for Wednesday.

A weak southern stream shortwave will draw moisture north out of
Mexico into the western portions of the County Warning Area. This will lead to
chc/slight chc of thunderstorms Thursday. As the shortwave moves
east slight chances spread across the County Warning Area on Friday. However...the
best chances will be to the north and east of the County Warning Area with the
better instability and jet dynamics.

A deeper trof will move from the Pacific northwest into the plains over
the weekend. The best instability and dynamics will remain north
and east of the County Warning Area...however there could be a few thunderstorms
Sat/Sat night across the eastern pb in association with a cold
front moving into the area. Saturday looks to be warm for mid
October with temps in the 80s with lower 90s along the Rio Grande.
The County Warning Area will only be clipped with the cooler airmass on Sunday.

Ridging will build strongly in the western US late in the weekend
in response to a deep trough in the eastern US. This will leave
the County Warning Area in northwest flow aloft. Expect dry weather Sunday thru at least
the middle part of next week with slowly warming temps.

Strobin

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 80 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 83 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 79 53 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 84 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 75 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 80 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 79 49 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 81 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 80 53 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 82 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0

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Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
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