Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 250536
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1136 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018
updated for aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 1009 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
Busy night with severe thunderstorms now moving across far eastern
sections of the forecast area. Flooding continues across much of
the forecast area and the Flood Watch remains in effect until 6 am
Sunday morning. Current Tornado Watch will expire at 11 PM CST.
Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
Severe thunderstorms are possible across all of the midsouth this
afternoon into tonight. There is an enhanced risk of severe
weather including the potential for wind, tornadoes, and hail. Heavy
rain is also a threat adding to the already saturated soils. The
Flood Watch will remain in effect through tonight for much of the
midsouth. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this afternoon into tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. The frontal boundary should be southeast of the forecast
area by late tonight.
The front will become stationary north of the Gulf Coast Sunday
and Sunday night while an area of rain north of the boundary moves
into across north Mississippi. The rain chance will continue over
that area into Sunday night before moving to the east.
Another complex system will provide a chance of flooding rain and
possible severe weather around the middle of the week.
for 06z tafs
VFR conditions at all sites except tup. Expect tup to improve to
VFR in a couple hours. Mkl and tup may have some fog/mist develop,
however, not confident enough in timing or intensity. Winds will
weaken overnight and veer to the north. Tlsjr
Arkansas...Flood Watch until 6 am CST Sunday for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
MO...Flood Watch until 6 am CST Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Flood Watch until 6 am CST Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Coahoma-
Tennessee...Flood Watch until 6 am CST Sunday for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-Chester-