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fxus64 kmeg 222024 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
324 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Discussion...surface analysis this afternoon places a 1030 mb
ridge of high pressure over portions of the middle and lower
Mississippi valleys. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate a few
mid/high clouds moving over portions of west Tennessee producing
mostly sunny skies. Otherwise, sunny skies prevail elsewhere
across the mid-south with temperatures as of 3 PM CDT in the 50s
to lower 60s.

Short term model trends indicate a few rain showers may develop
late tonight across the northern third of the mid-south with any
rainfall amounts remaining light at best. A developing warm front
will begin to push north across the lower Mississippi Valley
Friday into Friday night with mild temperatures returning again
to the forecast area. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs
on Friday in the 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will rise into the
upper 60s to middle 70s by Saturday. A surface low is expected to
move across Missouri and Kentucky Saturday into Saturday night
with a trailing cold front moving across the mid-south by Saturday
night. Rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible
during the day Saturday with the potential for a few thunderstorms
along the cold front. Instability remains on the low end at this
time and will hold off for the time being on mentioning any strong
thunderstorms in the hazardous weather outlook for late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening.

Long term models indicate southwest flow aloft will develop across
the lower Mississippi Valley next week. Several shortwaves
embedded within the upper level flow will move across the
middle and lower Mississippi valleys bringing a potential for
several rounds of rain showers and some thunderstorms. Heavy
rainfall will be possible each day beginning by mid to late next
week. Will mention potential in the severe weather potential statement and detail potential
amounts in subsequent forecasts as this event draws closer. Stay



/18z tafs/

VFR conditions to prevail through the taf period. Mid-level
clouds will increase this afternoon evening, with ceilings
gradually lowering to 6-9 kft tonight. A few showers are expected
to move across the mid-south tonight, but should have little
impact on visibility and ceilings. Light winds through tonight
will become gusty from the south by early Friday afternoon.



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