Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 161135
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
635 am CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/
An unsettled weather pattern will continue across the mid-south.
Knqa radar shows tranquil conditions thus far. However, a
shortwave has kicked off some showers across northern Arkansas
over the last couple of hours. These showers may skirt Randolph
and Lawrence counties this morning as the complex pushes northeast
into southern Missouri. Meanwhile, another shortwave will move
through northeast Mississippi today. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to begin developing across northeast Mississippi by
mid-morning. The showers and thunderstorms may become numerous by
the afternoon hours spreading into areas of west Tennessee near
the Tennessee River thanks to the moist airmass in place.
Highs will generally be around 90 degrees today. Although,
northeast Mississippi will likely see readings stay in the upper
80s thanks to the convection. Southwest winds will advect higher
dewpoints into the mid-south today. However, since highs are
expected to be a tad cooler than previous thinking then heat
indices should stay below 105 degrees as well.
Convection may linger across northeast Mississippi into the
evening hours. Once that convection dies out then all eyes will
turn to the north as showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a cold front that will be sinking south through
Missouri. This convection may begin to affect northeast Arkansas
during the early morning hours on Thursday. The line will likely
die out during the later morning hours before redeveloping during
the afternoon hours as the front sinks into the northern portions
of the mid-south. Some storms could be strong to severe.
The front will continue sinking south through north Mississippi
Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue for areas generally south of I-40.
Friday looks like the best day of the week as drier air will
filter into the mid-south behind the front. Although, chances for
showers and thunderstorms may occur across north Mississippi as
the front will likely be stalled just to the south of the County Warning Area.
Higher dewpoints will return by the weekend as the weak front is
expected to lift back to the north. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will occur late Friday night into Saturday as a mesoscale convective system
is expected to develop near Kansas City and dive southeast thanks
to the northwest flow aloft.
Thereafter, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to be
more diurnal based into early next week. Highs will generally
range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s through the period.
IFR ceilings are advancing north having already settled over
kmem/ktup. Brief IFR conditions will be possible at the northern
terminals, but ceilings may be MVFR by the time they arrive.
Otherwise, expect prevailing MVFR ceilings for the remainder of
the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
but coverage will be limited. The greatest rainfall potential
will from ktup to the south and east. Otherwise, precip chances
are too low to carry in the tafs. Will continue to monitor the
potential for low clouds/fog again tonight.