Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 142330
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
530 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017
updated to include 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/
Today was a chillier day across the mid-south thanks to the cold
front that moved through last night. Temperatures south of the
MS/Tennessee border are in the 50s while areas to the north are much
cooler thanks to some strato-cumulus clouds. Temperatures range
from the upper 30s to the mid 40s in areas affected by the clouds.
Tonight, colder air will continue to filter into the region.
However, clouds will continue to skirt northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee through the night while
some cirrus will skirt portions of north Mississippi. Thus the
coldest temperatures may occur along the I-40 corridor where
conditions should remain mostly clear. Expect lows to range from
the mid 20s near Jackson to around 30 degrees in northeast
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.
Friday will be another chilly day across the area as surface high
pressure settles over the region. Highs will be in the mid to
Winds will begin to turn around to the south by Friday night into
Saturday as high pressure shifts off to the east. As a result,
expect warmer temperatures to occur across the area. Lows will be
in the upper 20s to mid 30s but will quickly warm into the mid to
upper 50s by Saturday afternoon.
An overrunning pattern will set up over the mid-south late
Saturday night into Sunday as a surface low develops along the Gulf
Coast. Rain will spread into the area after midnight Saturday
night. Rain will occur across the entire area through at least 9
am. Thereafter rain will begin to taper off from west to east
ending in the Memphis Metro area by noon as the surface low moves
Another surface low may bring rain into the area late Monday into
Monday night with best chances occurring across northeast
Mississippi where a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible as
Another cold front will then move through the area on Tuesday
continuing small chances for rain. However, not much of a cool
down will occur with this front.
Overall temperatures will be above normal with highs ranging from
the upper 50s to lower 60s from Monday through Thursday of next
week. Enjoy the warmth as models are indicating cold air will
return in time for the Christmas Holiday.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will become
light tonight and increase to 6-8 kts on Friday.