Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 191732
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
Update for 18z taf issuance.
Previous discussion... /issued 1005 am CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/
Discussion...surface analysis this morning indicates a ridge of high
pressure centered over portions of the mid-Atlantic states back
through the lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in rain free
weather thus far and mostly sunny skies across a good portion of the
mid-south with the exception of increasing clouds over Arkansas. As
of 10 am CDT, temperatures across the mid-south are in the middle
50s to lower 60s at most locations. Short term model trends
including cam solutions indicate the best chance of rain developing
across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel will be mainly
from late afternoon into the early evening hours. Forecast will be
updated shortly to reflect the latest short term trends.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/
Currently...surface high pressure extends from the Southern Plains
across the mid-south to the Atlantic Seaboard. High clouds are
moving into the area in advance of the next system that will begin
impacting the area later today. Temps are generally in the 40s
with light winds.
Today and tonight...high pressure will hang on for a while today
with temps pushing into the mid 60s north to mid 70s over parts of
north Mississippi. A mid level trough from Central Plains into
The Rockies will push east along with a cold front later today and
tonight. This system will pick up some moisture from the Gulf as
it heads east. This moisture will overrun the cool airmass in
place resulting in rain across northern/western sections by later
today spreading across the entire forecast area tonight. Some
lingering rain is possible across north Mississippi Saturday
morning. Rainfall amounts should generally remain around one half
inch for this event.
Saturday through Sunday night...airmass right behind the front is
not too chilly and temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to
around 70 as the mid-south dries out on Saturday. A secondary
cold front will push through Saturday evening ushering in a much
cooler airmass. By 12z Sunday a 1033 mb surface high will be
situated over south central Missouri. Temps will fall into the 30s
across the northern half of the mid-south by Sunday morning. The
development of frost will depend on whether winds diminish. Right
now it looks like will drop to 5 kts or less across northeast
Arkansas, the bootheel and much of west Tennessee so frost will be
possible. Sunday will be chilly despite plenty of sunshine. Highs
will only reach the middle and upper 50s. Temps will drop quickly
Sunday night as high pressure continues over the area. Expect
temps in the 30s areawide by morning. Frost is likely...especially
across west Tennessee.
Monday through Tuesday night...surface pressure and weak ridging
aloft will prevail with dry, quiet weather. Highs will be in the
60s with lows in the 40s.
Wednesday and Thursday...00z models in quite a bit of disagreement
during this time frame. However, the pattern becomes generally
more unsettled by mid week with potential disturbances moving into
the area and rain chances returning. Temperatures will remain
18z taf cycle
Main issue this forecast will be timing of precip and MVFR
cigs/vsbys. Cigs should gradually decrease late aftn/early evening.
Will begin prevailing -ra and MVFR cigs/vsbys around 00z at kjbr, 02-
03z at kmem/kmkl, and 08z at ktup. Will include vcsh and decreasing
cigs for a couple hours before prevailing. May see some brief
decreases to IFR cigs during heavier rain periods, will monitor
details as event gets closer. Precip should end from northwest-southeast after 08z
with northerly surface winds as front moves through.