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fxus64 kmeg 282305 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
605 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Discussion... /issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

Currently the midsouth was experiencing mostly sunny
skies...southerly breezes and temperatures in the mid and upper
80s. Dewpoints in the 60s were keeping the humidity tolerable.

For tonight and tomorrow...surface high pressure over the
Appalachian Mountains will slide off the East Coast this
period providing a stronger fetch of Gulf moisture in the
Mississippi Valley. Thus a pop-up shower or storm will be
introduced tomorrow with the southeast counties showing some
favoritism. Temperatures will top out in the mid and upper
80s...but with dewpoints climbing into the 70s heat indices in
the low to mid 90s will be felt.

Friday and Saturday...better rain chances will be seen this period
as the Gulf moisture pools ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cam's show a weakening mesoscale convective system over the Ozarks Friday morning sending
an outflow into portions of northeast Arkansas that may be a
trigger for later day storms...but a greater bet will be for a
second mesoscale convective system to form along the front in the Ozarks...impacting our
area Friday night into early Saturday. Cape amounts of 1500-2500
j/kg coupled with 7-8c lapse rates and increasing midlevel flow
will place at least a marginal risk for some severe storms this
period. Have introduced this threat in the afternoon severe weather potential statement. Rain
coverage later Saturday is still in question as the atmosphere may
be well worked over. Thus a few locations may be able to get in
some outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the mid and
upper 80s...with muggy lows in the 70s.

Sunday through next Wednesday...weaker midlevel disturbances
passing across the mid Mississippi Valley coupled with the
lingering 70's dewpoints will provide for your typical summertime
convection that is isolated to scattered in coverage and diurnally
driven. Better rain chances may arrive next Wednesday according
to the GFS and European model (ecmwf) as a stronger shortwave drops south into the
lower Ohio Valley. Seasonal temperatures will continue this period.




00z taf set

VFR conditions will primarily occur over the next 24 hours. The
one exception will be at ktup where MVFR cigs(possibly as low as
ifr) will spread into the taf site between 12-15z. Ceilings will
gradually lift by 18-19z. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will
begin developing across mainly north Mississippi around 18-20z.
Have added thunderstorms in the vicinity wording at kmem and ktup for now. Light south-southeast winds
between 4-8 kts will occur overnight. Speeds will increase to
10-12 kts by 15z as the direction becomes more southerly. Gusts
between 15-20 kts will occur during the afternoon hours.




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