Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 220919
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
319 am CST Tue Jan 22 2019
Temperatures will continue to rise this morning thanks to
southeasterly winds ahead of a low pressure system currently
located in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Current temperatures are in the
30s and will continue to rise, reaching highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s this afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild
this evening as winds turn around to the south and increase in
speed. A Wind Advisory may become needed this evening as a result.
These temperatures will likely be the warmest temperatures that
the mid-south will see through at least Monday. The downside with
getting out and enjoying the warmer temperatures will be the
chances for warm air advection showers that will occur today. The
chances for rain will increase even more this evening as the cold
front approaches the County Warning Area.
Temperatures will drop dramatically on Wednesday behind the front.
Highs will likely occur at 12z(6 am cst) for much of the area and
will drop throughout the day. Don't expect winter precipitation to
be much of an issue as most of the precipitation will end before
the colder air gets into the area changing it over.
Winter is here and it looks like it is staying for awhile as
below normal temperatures are expected for the remainder of
forecast period and looking ahead even in the 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks. A broad upper trof will remain over the eastern half of
the United States. Reinforcing shots of cold air will continue to
come down from Canada. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all differ on
exact timing of the reinforcing shots of cold air. Thus, it is
hard to put anything higher than a 20 pop in period beyond
Wednesday. The one that looks most interesting right now in
regards to winter precipitation chances is the front that moves in
on Monday or Monday night depending on which model is correct on
timing. All the models show a decent amount of moisture with this
particular front as the cold air is plunging into the area. Still
too far out to have any confidence at this time. Stay tuned.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue through early Tuesday morning. Lower
clouds will start to move into western sections of the forecast
area Tuesday morning with rain starting by late Tuesday morning.
Rain will spread across the remainder of the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Winds will be mainly from the southeast at
5 to 10 knots tonight before increasing to 15 to 20 knots with
higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon.