Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmfl 191737 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
137 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. The
easterly flow will continue for the rest of this afternoon with
speeds around 10 to 12 knots. Showers will be very limited this
afternoon as a dry air mass remains in place. At kapf, winds will
shift around to the southwest this afternoon as a Gulf Coast sea
breeze develops.


Previous discussion... /issued 941 am EDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

no changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. High pressure will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across South Florida bringing an easterly flow
and mainly dry conditions as well. This will help to limit shower
and thunderstorm activity across South Florida today. High
temperatures across the region will range from the upper 80s
across the East Coast Metro areas to the lower 90s across the
interior and West Coast this afternoon. Another dry day is
expected on Saturday as high pressure remains in place across the

Previous discussion... /issued 735 am EDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. The
easterly wind flow will continue throughout today. Wind speeds
will increase to 10 to 12 knots later this morning and into this
afternoon. For kapf, a weak sea breeze will develop this afternoon
which will shift the winds around to the southwest. Winds will
diminish across all terminals later this evening.

Previous discussion... /issued 352 am EDT Fri Oct 19 2018/


Tranquil weather continues again today and into tomorrow as high
pressure governs across South Florida. This, in combination with
breezy easterly flow and a dry air mass with precipitable water values hovering
around 1.00"-1.20", will limit shower/thunderstorm activity. Similar
to last night, a few showers will try to push inland early this
morning across East Coast sites before marching westward by the
afternoon, but again, no thunder is forecast. High temperatures
today will range from the upper 80s across the East Coast Metro
areas to the lower 90s across the interior and West Coast sections.

A new story unfolds this weekend as a frontal boundary stalls over
central Florida Friday before lifting back to the north as a warm
front Saturday. A secondary cold front will then shove its way
through the state Sunday into Monday before eventually stalling
out a pinch to the south of Miami-Dade County. Because of this,
pops will increase along the eastern portions of South Florida,
especially since pwats increase to the 1.80"-2.00" range. High
pressure will then rebuild back into the region midweek with a shift
and increase in winds from the east. Coastal sites can see winds in
the 18-22 mph range while inland sites can see winds in the 8-12 mph


With high pressure continuing to dominate across the South
Florida Atlantic waters, moderate easterly wind will persist today
before tapering off into the weekend. An isolated chance for
showers will also prevail, mainly in the overnight into early
morning hours today. For this morning, wind speeds may reach 15-18
kts, so small craft should exercise caution. Lastly, a cold front is
forecast to arrive early next week, increasing the potential for
higher winds and seas, and thus, advisory levels, especially Sunday
into Monday night.


VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. A few quick
passing showers possible this morning but rain chances will be low
through the forecast period with high pressure in place. Easterly
winds will increase to 10-12 knots this afternoon. For apf, a weak
Gulf sea breeze is expected to form shifting winds from the SW
around 19z around 10 knots. Tonight, winds will relax becoming light
and variable for all sites.

Beach forecast...

East wind of 15 to 20 mph has prevailed for several days and will
continue throughout the day today. Because of this, a high risk of
rip currents will occur on the Atlantic beaches. A moderate to high
risk for East Coast beaches will likely continue into the early part
of the weekend.

Fire weather...

An area of high pressure will continue to reign across South Florida
for the first half of this weekend with only a few showers pushing
inland early this morning before marching westward by the afternoon.
Expect easterly winds of 5 to 10 mph each day this weekend. Because
of relatively light winds, dispersion values below 25 are forecast
for Saturday, leading to poor dispersion. However on Sunday behind a
passing cold front, values above 75 are expected, leading to
excellent dispersion as winds pick up. Relative humidity values will
remain above critical thresholds through the period.


A record high minimum was tied at Fort Lauderdale on Thursday,
October 18th. The low temperature of 80 degrees tied 1998's daily
record warm low temperature of 80 degrees.

Persistent onshore flow from the warm Atlantic threatens
additional warm records for today as well --

The record warm minima for today, October 19th are as follows:

City record date

Naples 78 1968
West Palm Beach 78 2001
Fort Lauderdale 79 2013
Miami 79 1970

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 75 89 73 87 / 10 10 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 77 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 20
Miami 75 88 74 88 / 10 10 0 10
Naples 72 88 72 87 / 10 0 0 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations