Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 220713
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
213 am EST Tue Jan 22 2019
surface high pressure centered south of the Great Lakes will
continue to move eastward through mid-week as the next low pressure
system emerges over the central United States by late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. The flow will eventually shift from a northerly component
to an easterly one over the next 24 hours. With this flow change,
the airmass will moderate with a warming trend expected over the
next few days. There could also be enough moisture, particularly
over the Atlantic waters, to support some shower activity.
The next cold front will arrive Thursday with the potential for
showers and thunderstorms. Timing of the front is still a source of
uncertainty as the European model (ecmwf) with a bit slower than the GFS with frontal
passage. There is some consensus between guidance packages with the
front stalling to the south and east of South Florida for the
weekend. Surface high pressure will build in with some cooler air
behind the front. 40s and 50s for overnight lows are expected but
the forecast evolution will have to be monitored in case colder
temperatures emerge into the picture.
Uncertainty with the pattern begins to increase as guidance is
producing some different possibilities late in the forecast period.
A mid-level trough will swing across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
which will bring some unsettled weather to the region. Some guidance
members show the development of a stronger surface feature over
Florida while some other members keep the feature more aloft in
character. The forecast trend will need to be monitored as
climatologically, we are in the midst of the winter severe weather
season which can quickly come to life with disturbances moving along
a southern branch of the jetstream.
developing easterly flow will pick up allowing advisory conditions
to develop over the Atlantic waters today. Advisory conditions
over the Atlantic waters will likely persist into Thursday. Small
Craft Advisory will be extended in time accordingly.
building easterly flow will allow for a high risk of rip currents
along the Atlantic beaches to persist through a good portion of
the week. The rip current statement has been extended through at
least Wednesday evening and will likely need to be extended
through Thursday if the current forecast holds.
dispersion index values will be in the good to excellent range
over the next several days. Currently, relative humidity values
appear to remain well above critical thresholds through the
the main concern is high pressure building to the north is
forecast to increase the pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in an increase in the wind out of the east today to
around 15 kts. There is the possibility of some periodic gusts to
around 25 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 64 78 68 / 10 10 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 73 67 78 71 / 10 10 20 30
Miami 74 67 78 71 / 10 10 20 30
Naples 76 62 79 66 / 10 10 10 30
Florida...high rip current risk through Wednesday evening for flz168-172-
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 PM EST Thursday