Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 251723 aac
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1223 PM EST sun Feb 25 2018
easterly winds will continue over most of the taf sites through
Monday morning, as speeds will be around 10 knots this afternoon
decreasing to less than 5 knots tonight before increasing to 5 to
10 knots on Monday. The only exception to this is at kapf taf site
where the direction will be westerly this afternoon. The weather
will remain dry along with VFR conditions at all of the taf sites
through Monday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 944 am EST sun Feb 25 2018/
.Moderate risk of rip currents East Coast beaches...
.near record highs Naples area...
high pressure over the Florida Peninsula will keep a easterly flow
over South Florida today. The mia sounding this morning showed
dry air above the 725 mb cap with some low level moisture below
the 725 mb cap. This low level cap will not allow for any storms
to develop over the area, but there could be a few showers over
the interior areas this afternoon into early this evening where
the sea breezes collide. Therefore, the 20 percent chance of
showers will remain in place for the interior areas for this
afternoon into early this evening.
The low level moisture should also allow for some patchy fog to
develop late tonight into early Monday morning over the interior
portions of South Florida. Therefore, patchy fog wording has been
added for the interior areas for late tonight into early Monday
Naples could again see near record highs for today.
Apf forecast high record high
85 86 - 1971/1962
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
Previous discussion... /issued 629 am EST sun Feb 25 2018/
easterly winds around 10 knots should occur over most of South
Florida taf sites today, except for kapf taf site where the wind
direction will become westerly after 19z today due to the West
Coast sea breeze develop. The weather should remain dry today over
all of the taf sites along with VFR conditions.
Previous discussion... /issued 423 am EST sun Feb 25 2018/
latest wpc surface analysis depicts a cold front draped down the
Tennessee Valley with a 1024 mb surface high sitting stagnant
near Bermuda. This high has been responsible for the breezy east
southeast winds experienced the last several days. Low level
moisture originating from out of the Atlantic, along with weak
instability, will keep the threat of light isolated showers
through this morning along the immediate East Coast. Upper level
ridging will begin to expand towards the Florida Peninsula today,
weakening pressure gradients and shift our winds to the southeast.
Similar to the synoptics experienced over the past week, strong
subsidence from the upper level ridge should bring warmer than
normal conditions. Maximum temperatures are forecast in the lower
80s long the East Coast Metro region, with mid 80s further west in
the interior. These value are around 5 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. As evening approaches, and diurnal mixing
ceases, winds should ease. As weak southeast flow continues to
usher in low level moisture from the Atlantic, minimum temperatures
should remain elevated, especially along the East Coast Metro
Early to mid next week: models prog a cold front to push across
the southeast conus, destined to eventually wash out over
northern Florida. In response, ridging will weaken over South
Florida, leading to very weak southerly flow. Enough moisture will
still exist on Monday and Tuesday for the development of a couple
sea breeze driven showers. Maximum temperatures will remain above
normal, mainly in the low to mid 80s.
Mid next week to early next weekend: both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) prog
drier air to advect over the peninsula from west, eliminating
precipitation chances. By early next weekend, these models drop a
cold front southward across our County Warning Area. If this scenario plays out,
northerly flow will ensue, reinforcing drier air and decreasing
temperatures to at or below seasonal norms. However, still nearly
a week out, confidence is low to moderate of occurrence.
as the center of high pressure gradually shifts
south and west toward South Florida early next week, flow will
become lighter and more southerly. Seas are generally expected
to be less than 3 feet for the first half of next week.
a Bermuda high remains in control, keeping the wind out of the
east to southeast through the period. This keeps the potential for
an isolated shower, especially at night along the Atlantic coast.
However, chances are too low for a mention in the tafs. A Gulf
Breeze is forecast for kapf tomorrow. This may allow some shower
develop near kapf tomorrow, but again, uncertainty is too high to
place in the taf. Otherwise, VFR through the taf period
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 83 72 84 69 / 10 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 81 73 82 71 / 10 10 20 10
Miami 84 72 84 71 / 10 10 20 10
Naples 85 68 84 67 / 10 10 10 10