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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
355 am EST Mon Dec 5 2016

Discussion...
short term (today-wednesday)...models depict a deepening mid-
upper level trough/low complex moving east-northeast across the
southeast plains today and Tuesday. An associated cold front is
shown on latest model solutions, which will approach the Florida
Peninsula tonight and bringing increasing showers and slight
chances of thunderstorms through Tuesday. A deeper layer of
moisture seems to reach South Florida Tuesday mid morning and
through the afternoon hours, but coverage remains generally
scattered per latest model runs.

The best dynamics associated with the aforementioned complex seem
to remain well to the north of the area, thus keeping best chances
for thunderstorms over the northern half of the state. Therefore,
the forecast for Monday will introduce slight chance of thunderstorms
mainly over the northwest portions of the cwa, then spreading
across the entire area on Tuesday. This forecast scenario will
surely be adjusted as new model data becomes available.

As the front approaches South Florida, winds become more southeast
from later today and through Tuesday, then veering to the south or
even southwest by mid week. This wind regime will bring a warm and
moist air mass into the area with increasing temperatures and
generally humid conditions prevailing each day.

Long term (wednesday night-sunday)...models show the front stalling
over south FL during the second half of the week as the trough/low
complex moves further away form the region. This synoptic scenario
will result in a continuing cloudy and rather wet weather pattern
for the end of the work week with chance of scattered showers
across the area through Friday morning.

Another frontal boundary races across Florida on the late Thursday-
Friday afternoon timeframe with a colder and drier airmass behind it
filtering into the area during the upcoming weekend. Low temperatures
could drop into the low 40s Friday night over interior and western
areas of South Florida, and upper 50s to lower 60s along the southeast
coast. Afternoon highs might struggle to break the mid 70s on Friday
and Saturday. The air mass should begin to moderate on Sunday with
highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

Marine...winds are now veering to the southeast while gradually increasing
today. Small craft exercise caution conditions will develop today
and through Tuesday with speeds in the 15 to 20 knots range over
the Atlantic waters. Winds will then gradually subside as a cold
front stalls over the region. Another front will reach South Florida
by the end of the work week and possibly bringing stronger winds
and hazardous boating conditions during much of the upcoming
weekend.

&&

Beach forecast...the rip current risk will become moderate today
over the Atlantic beaches as winds decrease and shift towards the
south through Tuesday. However, the southerly wind regime may
increase rip current risk over some at the Gulf beaches Tuesday or
Wednesday.

&&

Aviation...
surface winds 130-150 degrees at 8-12 knots overnight will become
150-160 degrees at 14-16 knots with gusts to 20 knots or slightly
higher after 14z as heating mixes stronger winds down to the
surface. This southeast wind flow gradually bringing deeper moisture into
the area as low pressure area moves into the western Gulf of
Mexico and remnant of old frontal system returns northward across
South Florida. VFR conditions will prevail, but brief intervals of
bkn022-025 ceilings possible area-wide throughout the forecast
period. At kapf/Naples, lower ceilings around 1,000 ft not out of
the question between 08z-14z this morning. Area should remain
mostly free of precipitation, with best chance of showers in
vicinity of Naples and Gulf Coast late this morning and afternoon.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 83 75 86 70 / 20 20 50 20
Fort Lauderdale 81 76 82 73 / 20 20 50 20
Miami 82 75 84 73 / 20 20 50 20
Naples 83 74 82 72 / 30 30 50 20

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.

Am...none.
GM...none.

&&

Discussion/marine...17/AR
aviation...rm

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