Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 230001 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
801 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
as the evening continues, the weather across South Florida will
remain on the quiet side. Have added some showers over southern
portions of Dade County and the Atlantic waters based off the
convection that has persisted on radar over the last couple of
hours. Otherwise, it should be a dry night across much of South
Florida with little risk of showers let alone thunderstorms. Went
ahead and pulled mentions of thunder for the overnight. Any
strikes should be isolated to the offshore waters. Updated zones
will be transmitted shortly. Have a great evening!
Previous discussion... /issued 724 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will remain out of the southeast through the overnight hours
across all terminals between 5 and 10 knots. Winds are then
expected to increase once again out of the southeast by the later
portion of Friday morning to near 15 knots. At kapf, a West Coast
sea breeze will develop Friday afternoon shifting the winds to
Previous discussion... /issued 402 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
the remnants of Cindy are pushing into the lower Mississippi River
valley this afternoon as Atlantic high pressure digs into much of
the peninsula of Florida. Drier air continues to hold over the
region along with the deep-layered high pressure. As Cindy's
moisture is absorbed into an approaching trough, a frontal
boundary will develop over the lower Tennessee Valley into the
mid-Atlantic over the weekend and begin to approach the region
late in the weekend into early next week.
As the frontal boundary approaches South Florida Monday into
Tuesday, moisture begins to rebound with increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances. The frontal boundary has some mid-level
support in the GFS, which has more defined front in the 12z
solution, while the European model (ecmwf) has a more diffused moisture boundary.
Either way, the available moisture, instability, and forcing
should see a return to rain and storms for our area.
In the extended, the model solutions begin to diverge as the European model (ecmwf)
starts building in a ridge at the mid to upper levels while the
GFS holds the ridge back through the end of the week. The
return of moisture will help usher back in a rainy season pattern
that could bring heavy rain threats back starting near the end of
southeasterly to easterly flow will continue through the weekend
over the waters. Overnight, conditions in the outer waters will
push scec criteria with improvement expected on Friday morning.
Overnight scec surges over the coming days cannot be ruled out.
Next week, a frontal boundary will begin to near the region early
in the week which could create some hazards for mariners.
decided to continue with the high risk of rip currents for this
evening and extend through late Friday. The persistent
southeasterly flow has continued to create rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches of South Florida today and tomorrow will
still have many of the remnant conditions hanging around. Local
modeling underestimated today's rip current risk a tad and
tomorrow appears to be very similar in pattern. At best, Atlantic
beaches may see a moderate risk of rip currents, but even that
elevated risk may be magnified by this week's rip current activity
and rising attendance as the weekend begins.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 77 89 77 90 / 10 20 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 79 90 79 91 / 10 20 10 10
Miami 78 90 79 91 / 10 20 20 10
Naples 77 92 76 91 / 20 30 20 30
Florida...high rip current risk through Friday evening for flz168-172-173.