Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmfl 200754 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
354 am EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

one more dry day ahead of a frontal boundary that will push
southward today before stalling over South Florida. Sea breezes
are expected to develop late this morning into the afternoon,
which while dry, should bring some wind shifts and slightly higher
dewpoints in their wake. Fog could again develop overnight,
particularly south of where the stalled boundary is located.

Saturday is a transition day as the stalled frontal boundary over
the region will serve as a catalyst for convection and a return to
rain chances. Some thunderstorms are possible as a few mid-level
disturbances pass over the East Coast on Saturday. For Sunday, we
begin to see the next frontal system emerge in the Southern Plains
and mid-south. The remnant front begins to retreat northward
allowing for a more moist airmass to move over the area. As the
low pressure passes to the north of the region over the Interstate
20 corridor heading into the Tennessee Valley, it will allow for
a more unsettled pattern over the southeastern United States. For
our region, showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front on
Monday into Tuesday. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning remain
the primary concerns with any thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week.

On Wednesday, the front will exit into the Bahamas and Cuba
allowing a slot of drier air to move over the region. The pattern
is not conducive for much of a cooling off as another low pressure
system moves across the Ohio Valley late in the week with a
weakening reinforcing frontal boundary pushing through Florida to
close out the work week with the potential of some showers.


a front will push across the state today and stall over the area
for the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms can produce
locally higher winds and waves but there will also be bouts of
wind surges that could lead to rougher seas. Scec/Small Craft Advisory conditions
are possible through the weekend into early next week.


Previous discussion... /issued 127 am EDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

Aviation...weak front expected to move through state today
before stalling out near South Florida late in the day. Winds will
remain light/vrb overnight, trending northwest towards daybreak as front
moves further south. Both seabreezes still expected to develop
this afternoon, with gusty east-northeast winds at Atlantic sites and west at
kapf. Winds at East Coast sites remain elevated overnight as wind
surge arrives late, with potential for a few rain showers affecting kpbi
after 01z. Other sites should remain dry.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 85 72 83 71 / 10 20 40 40
Fort Lauderdale 85 74 83 74 / 0 20 30 50
Miami 87 73 85 73 / 0 10 30 40
Naples 84 68 87 69 / 0 0 20 20


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations