Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
505 am EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Synopsis...through late week, high pressure ridging over the
southeast Continental U.S. Will maintain gusty east northeast winds across
our region. Deeper lower and mid level moisture will push in from
the Atlantic and increase cloud cover/shower activity as well. The
highest coverage of scattered showers should affect portions of
the Atlantic coastal waters and southern portions of the peninsula
through this weekend.
latest infrared satellite loop displays a thickening cirrus
cloud deck lifting to the northeast over South Florida. The radar is
quite this morning, as these mid and high clouds are too thin to
produce any precip. The 00z mfl sounding indicated very dry air in
the mid levels, with a precipitable water value of just under an inch.
Unidirectional northeast winds were noted from near the surface up
through around 600 mb, with southwest winds aloft. A cell of high
pressure to the north, centered near the Carolinas, will maintain
strength and move slightly east today. This feature should act to
increase east northeast flow over the region today, with sustained
winds 10 to 20 mph surfacing by this afternoon. Low and mid level
moisture will also slowly be on the rise, advected in from the
Atlantic. The 00z GFS increases precipitable water values above 1" by this afternoon
and above 1.25" by late this evening. Light showers will be possible
over the Atlantic coastal waters and East Coast Metro, but
accumulations do not appear impressive. Similar conditions are
forecast on Thursday with a gusty east northeast wind and chance of
showers over southern portions of the peninsula. Instability
parameters become more favorable, as 500 mb temps drop to near -11c.
Thus, a slight chance of thunder in grids look warranted. A similar
synoptic pattern will lead to more gusty east northeast winds this
weekend with a slight chance of showers, mainly over the southern
portion of the peninsula. Temperatures through the period will be
near normal for this time of year.
Through early next week, high pressure ridging to the north of the
region will help to maintain the east northeast flow pattern
across South Florida. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) advect drier air
from the north, which would act to lower precipitation chances
across the region.
small craft advisories are in effect for all marine zones minus
Lake Okeechobee through Friday. Winds will continue to exceed 20
knots and seas will increase to 5 to 7 feet, higher in the Gulf
Stream, by later today. Conditions may improve slightly this
weekend, but the advisories may still have to be extended.
Beach forecast... high risk of rip currents are anticipated for
Atlantic beaches today, as onshore flow increases. The high risk
of rip currents may persist through the remainder of the week.
VFR expected to prevail at all the terminals today and tonight. East
winds will become breezy and gusty, with possible periods of gusts
to near 30 mph this afternoon. Otherwise, conditions will remain
generally dry at all terminals with passing bkn050-060 cigs.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 84 77 83 76 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 84 77 82 77 / 20 30 20 20
Miami 85 74 83 75 / 20 40 30 20
Naples 85 71 85 69 / 0 0 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk through Thursday morning for flz168-172-
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for amz630-650-651-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for gmz656-657-676.