Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
743 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 23 2016

Aviation...
the winds will remain northeast at 5 to 10 knots tonight along
the East Coast taf sites before increasing to around 10 knots on
Wednesday. The weather will remain dry through 06z before vcsh
between 06z and 11z followed by thunderstorms in the vicinity for the day hours on
Wednesday over the East Coast taf sites.

For kapf taf site, the winds will be easterly around 10 knots
this evening before becoming light and variable tonight into
Wednesday morning. The winds will then increase to 5 to 10 knots
from the northeast Wednesday afternoon. The weather will remain
dry tonight, before thunderstorms in the vicinity after 17z Wednesday.

The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions for all of the
taf sites through Wednesday. But could fall into the MVFR or even
IFR conditions with any passage of the showers or thunderstorms
late tonight into Wednesday.

&&
Aviation...54/bnb



Previous discussion... /issued 504 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 23 2016/

Discussion...
tonight-Fri...water vapor satellite imagery and radar data
suggest deep moisture filtering into South Florida from the
Atlantic, with additional showers and thunderstorms still possible
tonight favoring the eastern half of the area. The influence of an
upper level ridge will likely keep hindering potential for strong
thunderstorms to develop as temps aloft remain warmer than normal.

Sfc analysis show a cold front boundary just east of northern
Florida, with model solutions slowly pushing it southward and into
the state northwest corner during the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will keep building across the
mid Atlantic through the end of the work week with northeasterly
and easterly flow prevailing over South Florida. These synoptic
features will likely bring an increase in tropical moisture across
the area with model precipitable water values showing two inches or higher.
Therefore, an increase in showers and thunderstorms is also
expected through Friday, including the nighttime periods. Coverage
will likely become widespread during the afternoon and early
evening hours through Friday.

For the upcoming weekend...two active tropical systems, Tropical
Depression Fiona amd Tropical Storm Gaston are still being
followed by the National Hurricane Center, with both systems
expected to remain well away from Florida. However, a third
system, a developing tropical wave located a few hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands, is currently drifting west-northwest
at 15 to 20 mph and is expected to approach the area of the
Bahamas during the next couple of days. This system will keep a
high level of uncertainty for the extended forecast, as it is too
early to determine if or how this system could influence our
weather in the Sat-Mon timeframe. The National Hurricane Center
gives this system a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 5 days. We recommend the public to
remain well informed regarding the progress of this system with
the latest products from the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service in Miami.

Rip current risk...the risk of rip currents is expected to remain
slight for Gulf and Atlantic beaches tonight and Wednesday, then
increasing to a moderate risk for the Atlantic beaches later in
the week as stronger easterly flow returns to the region.

Marine...
northeast winds will build across the coastal waters through
Wednesday and expected to reach the 10 to 15 knot range by
Thursday, along with gradually increasing seas. Atlantic and Gulf
Stream seas are forecast to be in the 2 to 4 foot range later in
the week.

There is considerable uncertainty in the extended winds and seas
forecast due to the uncertainty in the potential for tropical
cyclone development in the long range forecast during the
weekend.

Aviation...
partly cloudy skies are expected through the afternoon over the
East Coast taf sites, as storm activity is forecast to occur well
inland. The easterly sea breeze, generally 11-13 kt, will dwindle
aft 24/0200z. Later tonight, aft 24/0600z, models increase the
chance of showers and thunderstorms moving ashore from the
Atlantic. Have included vcsh in the tafs to account for this.

For kapf, expect the chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
through 24/0100z this evening. Aft 24/0100z, the Gulf sea breeze
and precipitation will diminish. Shower and storm activity should
ramp back up again by late morning on Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 81 92 81 92 / 30 50 40 50
Fort Lauderdale 82 91 81 90 / 30 40 40 50
Miami 80 92 80 92 / 30 50 50 50
Naples 79 93 77 92 / 10 60 20 60

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...17/AR
long term....17/AR
aviation...54/bnb

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations