Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Medford or
318 am PDT Sat Jul 23 2016
Discussion...general zonal flow aloft, warm dry conditions, and a thermal trough
along the coast will characterize the weather over the next week.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal today... then 5
to 10 degrees above normal Sunday. A weak upper trough will pass
over the area Monday, bringing some light drizzle to the coast and
increased cloud cover. Pressure will start building by Monday
afternoon, bringing clear skies and temperatures similar to sunday's
highs. Highs on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, generally 5 to 10
degrees above normal. The thermal trough along the coast will
continue to drive offshore winds... that may be slightly gusty at
times over the coastal mountains. Temperatures will gradually
increase Wednesday into Friday...likely hitting triple digits in
west side valleys by the end of the week.
Though models show afternoon instability over the next few days due
to substantial surface heating, thunderstorms or showers are not
expected, as midlevel relative humidity is too low. Though
conditions may slightly moisten next weekend, precipitation looks
unlikely in the current models. Given the lead time, there is
uncertainty, so stay tuned for forecast updates. -MSC
Aviation...23/06z taf cycle...IFR/MVFR cigs in low clouds will
return to the coast around midnight and continue through early
morning on Saturday. Inland expect some area of MVFR cigs to develop
in the Umpqua valley and south into the Grants Pass area late
tonight and early Saturday morning. Low ceilings are expected to
dissipate around 16z. Other areas inland will remain VFR through the
taf period. Gusty winds are expected along coastal areas Saturday
Marine...updated 900 PM PDT Friday 22 July 2016...high pressure
will strengthen offshore and a thermal trough will develop over
northern California tonight then remain strong much of next week.
This will result in an extended period of strong north winds and
steep, hazardous seas. Winds will be strongest and seas will be
steepest during the afternoons and evenings beyond 10 nm from shore
south of Cape Blanco. But, beginning on Saturday seas will at least
be hazardous to small craft elsewhere. A gale watch remains in
effect for the southern waters beyond 10 nm from shore for Saturday
afternoon through late Wednesday night. -Fb
Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am PDT Thursday for pzz356-376.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM PDT this
afternoon for pzz356-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 am PDT
Thursday for pzz350-370.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 am PDT Thursday for