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fxus62 kmhx 211445 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
945 am EST Tue Nov 21 2017

high pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will
move through Wednesday morning. Areas of low pressure will move
northeast across the offshore waters Thursday through Saturday.
A dry cold front will move through Sunday, bringing a shot of
much colder air. High pressure will build in from the west


Near term /today/...
as of 945 am significant changes needed to forecast for
am update. Latest sfc analysis shows 1025mb high pressure
extending over the area from the east this morning. The high
will continue to slide offshore today with increasing clouds
and warmer temps as low level flow becomes southeast to S. Highs will
be in the mid 60s across much of the area, warmest along the
coast. Could see isolated showers along the coast late as models
show activity moving in off the water, in response to weak low
developing off the southeast coast.


Short term /tonight/...
as of 210 am area of low pres will lift NE just off
the coast and depart to the NE Wed. Expect decent coverage of
showers to spread across the region with likely pops most areas
with categorical pops obx. Lows will be in the lower 50s coastal
plain with mid/upper 50s South Coast and obx.


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 210 am Tue... an area of low pres will move NE away from
the region Wed. Showers will end from west to east Wed morn as the low
departs with decreasing clouds and increasing north winds. Temps
shld reach upr 50s to mid 60s Wed before better cold air advection kicks in.
Dry and cool Wed night as high pres builds in with lows mid/upr
30s inland to mostly 40s beaches.

Still some uncertainty for the Thu thru Sat period however bulk
of models now keeping most of the region dry with just some shra
grazing the coast at times. The GFS looks like a wet outlier for
Thu/Thu evening showing numerous shra over the region. Cont to
lean toward European model (ecmwf) with just very small pop near CST late Thu
into Fri and again late Fri night into Sat as last of the weak
lows lifts NE offshore. Cool temps cont Thu and Fri with north/NE
winds highs mostly in the 50s. On Sat will warm a bit ahead of
approaching cold front with lower 60s expected.

Strong cold front will cross Sat night with cold high pres
building in from the west sun and Mon. Highs sun will be in the 50s
and looks like mainly 40s to around 50 for Mon. Lows will
likely drop to or below freezing most inland areas Sun night.


Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Tue...VFR conditions forecast for most of today.
Clouds will lower and thicken through the day and into tonight
as a coastal trof develops just off the coast and a cold front
approaches from the west. Widely scattered light showers will
develop this afternoon near the coast. Light showers will
increase in coverage this evening and overnight. However,
ceilings and visibilities are forecast to remain VFR at all 4
area terminals. Winds will be light and variable this morning,
becoming east-southeast around 5 knots this afternoon through
late this evening. As the cold front moves through, winds will
become northwest around 5 knots near 12z Wed.

Long term /Wed through Saturday/...
as of 210 am Tue...sct showers will end Wed morn with any sub
VFR becoming VFR by aftn as clouds diminish. Mainly VFR expected
Thu night thru Sat with deeper moisture and shower threat
expected mainly east of taf sites with pc to mclr skies expected.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 945 am Tue...latest obs show variable winds southeast/SW 5-10 kt
north of Oregon Inlet, and NE/east 5-10 kt gusts to 15 kt south,
with seas 1-2 ft. High pressure will continue to shift off the
coast today, with flow becoming S/southeast 5-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft early
will build to 2-3 ft. Southeast to S winds 10-15 kts expected most of
tonight. Seas of 2-4 feet forecast north of Oregon Inlet, with
3-5 feet south.

Long term /Wed through Saturday/...
as of 210 am Tue...winds become north and increase Wed as the low
departs and high pres builds in. Speeds will reach 15 to 25 kts
Wed aftn and cont in that range Wed night. NE winds 15 to 20 kts
early Thu will grad diminish to 10 to 15 kts late Thu and cont
in that range thru most of Fri. Winds will become west-southwest 10 to 15
kts Sat ahead of approaching cold front.

Seas will build from 3 to 5 feet early Wed to 5 to 8 feet by
evening. Seas will slowly subside to 4 to 6 feet Thu and be
mainly 3 to 5 feet Thu night and Fri. On Sat seas will be in
the 2 to 4 foot range.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...



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