Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 261445
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1045 am EDT Wed Jul 26 2017
high pressure will extend over the area from the north
today into Thursday. A cold front will move in from the
northwest Saturday and then stall off the coast Sunday into
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1030 am Wednesday...dropped pops over southern sections
and will have dry forecast all areas rest of the day. Did
increase cloud cover over southern sections into early afternoon
with some adjustments to hourly temps and dew points as well.
High pressure continues to wedge into area from north and precip
threat will be kept to south of area per latest radar trends and
meso models. 12z mhx sounding indicates saturate layer from
around 850 mb to 740 mb. Forecast soundings do indicate drying
in this layer during afternoon so still expecting southern
sections to see some clearing, allowing Max temps to reach mid-
as of 600 am Wednesday...high pressure will build into the
region from the north through tonight with a NE flow of slightly
cooler/drier air. Will hang on to a minimal 20% pop over the
extreme south to account for isolated pop up
showers/thunderstorms especially vicinity of the sea breeze.
Otherwise it will be mostly sunny and less humid with highs in
the mid to upper 80s with more comfortable dewpoints in the 60s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
as of 310 am Wednesday...high pressure will continue to produce
pleasant conditions with mostly clear skies, light winds and
low temperatures in the upper 60s inland and low 70s coast.
Patchy fog could develop late inland due to strong radiational
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 345 am Wednesday...high pressure slides offshore
Thursday bringing a warming trend with dry weather expected to
continue. Another cold front will approach the area Friday and
move across the area Saturday bringing a good chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. The front will stall along
or off the coast through the weekend and into early next week.
Thursday and Thursday night...a robust shortwave will dig
across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River valley with an
attendant sfc low pressure beginning to move into the mid-
Atlantic states late in the period. High pressure ridging in
from the north will move off the mid-Atlantic coast with
southerly return flow developing across the region bringing a
warming trend to the area. Models continue to keep the area dry
much of the period but could see a few showers or storms across
northwest sections as upper level dynamics improve with the
approaching shortwave Thursday night. Highs expected around 90
inland to mid 80s along the coast with lows mainly in the mid
70s inland to upper 70s coast.
Friday through Sunday...robust shortwave energy moves across
the region Friday into Saturday while low pressure moves off the
mid-Atlantic coast Friday with the trailing cold front progged
to move across the area Saturday. Descent instability and
shear expected to exist across the region ahead of the front
Friday with favorable upper level dynamics and could see strong
to severe storms across the region during the afternoon and
evening hours. Timing differences persist among the models
with how quickly the front moves through Saturday as well as the
upper system late Saturday or Sunday, so will hold on to 20-30%
pops Saturday night and Sunday with the uncertainty. Strong SW
flow persists Friday ahead of the front bringing warm temps with
highs in the lower 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.
Cooler behind the front Saturday with highs in the mid 80s most
areas except lower 80s across the obx. Lows expected in the 70s
Friday night then mid to upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s
coast Saturday night.
Monday through Tuesday...model difference persist into early
next week leading below normal confidence this period. The GFS
is faster with lifting the upper trough over the southeast and backs
the front into the region late Monday/Monday night bringing
showers and thunderstorms chances back into the picture while
the European model (ecmwf) maintains the upper trough through Tuesday with the
front remaining offshore with several low pressure areas lifting
NE along it with showers mainly remaining over the coastal
waters. High generally expected in the mid 80s with lows in the
mid/upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s along the coast.
Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 600 am Wednesday...bases of the lingering stratocumulus
clouds in the moist low level NE flow this morning have risen
above 3k ft and will remain at VFR levels through this evening.
High pressure building over the region through tonight will
circulate a drier airmass across eastern NC with little in the
way of precipitation expected during the next 48 hours. Late
tonight winds are forecast to decouple and the resulting strong
radiational cooling should lead to patchy fog development with
sub VFR conditions possible after midnight.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 4 am Wednesday...pred VFR conditions expected Thursday
with high pressure bringing dry conditions, but cannot rule out
patchy fog bringing sub-VFR conditions early Thursday morning.
A robust system is expected to move into the region Friday with
an associated cold front moving into the region Saturday which
will bring showers and thunderstorms with period of sub-VFR
conditions. Mainly dry with VFR conditions expected Saturday
night and Sunday.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1030 am Wednesday...no significant changes with update.
High pressure building in from north will produce NE winds 10-15
knots through this afternoon, with some gusts to 20 knots for
southern and central waters. Seas mainly 3-4 ft.
as of 600 am Wednesday...a Post frontal NE surge behind the
cold front will continue this morning, highest over the central
and southern waters with winds 15 to 20 kt early in the best
pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the waters
through tonight. Winds will veer to east and diminish to 10 to 15
kt this afternoon and 5 to 10 kt late tonight. Seas 3 to 4 ft
this morning will become 2 to 3 ft this afternoon and tonight.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 4 am Wednesday...high pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic
coast Thursday with winds below 10 kt veering to southeast to S
Thursday afternoon and increasing to 10-15 kt with seas around
2-3 ft. A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday with winds
becoming SW around 10-15 kt Thursday night and 15-20 kt Friday
and up to 25 kt Friday night. Seas expected to build to 3-5 ft
Friday and 4-7 ft Friday night into Saturday. Models differ
some on the strength SW flow but there will be a good chance of
Small Craft Advisory conditions developing across portions of the waters sometime
Friday into Friday night. The front is progged to move across
the waters Saturday with a northwest surge around 10-20 kt developing,
then shifting to north Saturday night and NE Sunday. Seas expected
around 3-6 ft Saturday night and Sunday, highest across the