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fxus62 kmhx 220559 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 am EST Wed Feb 22 2017

high pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday. A cold front will move through on Saturday. High
pressure will build in Sunday and Monday then slide offshore


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1255 am Wednesday, fairly extensive high cloudiness
continues over the region. Low-level flow will gradually veer
from east/NE to more southeast toward morning. The combination of the
cloudiness and this warmer southeast flow should lead temperatures to
become fairly steady overnight or perhaps rise a bit. No big
changes to the current forecast at this time.


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
as of 215 PM Tuesday...weak short wave will cross region late
Wed. Model trends cont to show moisture diminishing east of mtns
and expect little if any measurable rainfall across the region.
Will cont prev fcst of slight pops cstl plain where have best
chc to see some rain. Will cont to have good deal of clouds
over region however low lvl thicknesses are higher tomm and
combined with light southeast to S winds shld see very mild highs in
the low to poss a few mid 70s inland with 60s beaches.


Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
as of 215 PM Tue...models remain in rather good agreement for
the region through the long term, and made very little change to
current forecast. Pattern will be dry and warm through the end
of the week. Surface/upper low passing across South Florida
Wednesday night into Thursday will keep deeper moisture confined
to the south so no precip forecast. A fast-moving cold front
will move through Saturday. Models continue to show deeper
moisture lifting north of the area during the day. Kept low
chance pops across the north and along the Outer Banks, with
slight chance elsewhere. High temps Wednesday through Saturday
will slowly warm, going from lower/mid 70s Wednesday to
mid/upper 70s Saturday. Dry weather forecast Saturday night
through Tuesday as high pressure passes through from the west.
Cooler temps in store for Sunday, in the mid/upper 50s. After
winds become southerly once again early next weeks, temps will
rise into the lower/mid 60s Monday and mid 60s/lower 70s


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through 06z Thursday/...
as of 1255 am Wednesday, some patchy fog already being observed
at kewn and will continue previous trend of showing some MVFR
vsbys in patchy fog through the early morning hours as low-level
flow becomes southeast with minimal temperature/dewpoint spread. Any
fog should dissipate fairly quickly Wednesday morning. Would
expect to see some scattered to broken ceilings in the 4000-5000
foot level during the late morning into the evening hours on
Wednesday. Patchy showers will be possible, but mainly west of
the taf sites.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 215 PM Tue...VFR/dry through Friday, with isolated
showers Friday night into Saturday, and even an isolated
thunderstorm Saturday afternoon as a cold front passes through.
Surface winds will be from the southeast around 5 knots
Thursday, southeast 10-15 knots Friday, southwest 10-15 knots
Saturday and northwest 10-15 knots Sunday.


short term /tonight and Wed/...
as of 1 am Wednesday, low level flow gradually will veer from
east/NE to southeast overnight, but wind speeds should remain at 10 knots
or less. The swell has finally diminished at Diamond buoy with
seas at 3-4 feet throughout the coastal waters. Current forecast
on track with light veering winds and seas in the 3-4 foot range
tonight and generally 2-3 with isolated 4-footers offshore for

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 215 PM Tue...light winds and seas forecast through
Thursday night, as high pressure off the coast continues moving
east. Winds will be generally 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet.
Winds and seas will increase Friday into Friday night as a fast-
moving cold front approaches from the west, moving through the
marine area Saturday. Small craft seas will develop Friday and
continue into Saturday. Winds however, are forecast no higher
than 15-20 knots. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the west.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...




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