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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

high pressure extending down the East Coast from southeast Canada
will move east Thursday. A warm front will move through from
the southwest Friday, followed by a cold front early Saturday.
Another warm front will lift north through the area Monday
night, followed by a cold front late Tuesday, or Tuesday night.


Near term /tonight/...
as of 10 PM Wed...latest sfc analysis shows 1031mb high
pressure centered over southern Ontario and the Great Lakes
region, extending into the mid-Atlantic and southeast US. While
latest satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the
region, with earlier scu dissipating. Think increasing clouds
late and winds staying up will inhibit fog development
overnight. Cooler overnight with lows dropping into the mid to
upper 40s.


Short term /Thursday/...
as of 230 PM Wed...high pressure along the coast will move east
in the afternoon. Moisture will increase during the day ahead
of the warm front advancing this way from the southwest. Light
northeast wind in the morning will veer to east in the
afternoon. Highs will vary widely, from the mid/upper 50s
northern Outer Banks to upper 60s/70 degrees southwest.


Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
as of 230 PM Wednesday...shra and tsra expected Fri and Fri evening
then again Mon night into Tue...otherwise mainly dry with
pleasant temps

Thu night through Fri night...moisture will increase quickly
Thu night as high pres slides offshore and next system
approaches from the west. Expect sct shra late...mainly inland with
mild lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Numerous shra and tsra
expected Fri as strong short waves lifts northwest of region producing
good lift over the area. Good srly low lvl flow will lead to
precip water values reaching around 1.5 inches and expect
widespread rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1 inch with locally higher
amounts. Forcing and shear favorable for severe weather however
degree of instab in question with clouds precip developing
early...if do get pockets of better instab will certainly have
a severe threat. Shra and a few tsra will grad end from with to
east Fri night as cold front crosses.

Sat and Sunday...dry with pleasant temps over the weekend with
broad ridge aloft and sfc high building in from the northwest. Highs
Sat 60s beaches to 70 to 75 inland...bit cooler Sunday with
highs mid/upr 50s obx to upr 60s/lower 70s inland.

Mon thru Wed...moisture will be returning Mon with high pres
moving offshore and next srn stream system approaching. Expect
increasing clouds with sct shra and tsra mainly in the aftn.
Numerous shra and at least sct tsra expected Mon night into
first part of Tue as the potent srn stream short wave lifts northwest
of region. Much like Fri forcing and shear look favorable for
severe potential but still some uncertainty on instab. Will be
mild early next week with highs Mon and Tue in the 70s inland
to 60s beaches.

Cold front will be offshore by early Wed with dry weather
expected. Very little cold air expected behind front with highs
Wed again reaching the 70s inland to 60s beaches.


Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through Thursday/...
as of 645 PM Wed...VFR conditions currently, as area of stratocu
along Highway 17 continues to slowly erode this evening. Expect
skies to become mostly clear, with increasing clouds early
Thursday morning. Confidence is low at this time, but think
increasing cloud cover late and light winds will inhibit fog
development overnight...though a brief period of MVFR conditions
will be possible early Thursday morning. Pred VFR conditions
expected Thu with cloud bases gradually lowering with increasing
moisture ahead of the next frontal system.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 230 PM Wed...mainly VFR Thu evening then as moisture
increases late could see some sub VFR develop in sct shra prior
to day break Fri. Numerous shra and tsra Fri into Fri evening
ahead of a cold front with ocnl sub VFR likely...a strong storm
or two also possible. Shld dry out later Fri night with VFR
expected over the weekend as high pres builds in from the northwest.
Moisture will be returning Mon in advance of the next system
with sct shra/tsra and poss some sub VFR.


short term /through Thursday/...
as of 10 PM Wed...latest obs show NE/east winds 10-20kt, strongest
south of Hatteras...with seas 3-5 feet north of Oregon Inlet
and 4-7 feet south. Small Craft Advisory continues south of Oregon Inlet through
late tonight and early Thursday morning. NE winds 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt early Thu becoming east in the afternoon...with
seas 3-5 feet.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 230 PM Wed...southeast to S winds will be grad increasing on
backside of high pres and ahead of next system Thu night.
Speeds will reach 15 to 20 kts late with seas building to 4 to
6 feet. South-southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 kts most waters Fri
into Fri evening as low/cold front approaches from the west. These
winds will lead to seas reaching 6 to 9 feet later Fri into Fri
evening. Cold front will push offshore by early Sat with west-northwest
winds 10 to 20 kts in its wake and seas grad subsiding to 3 to 5
ft Sat. Winds mainly north-northeast 10 to 15 kts Sat night into sun with
high pres building in from the northwest. Looks like will see bit of a
swell nrn half of region with seas building back to 6 feet or so
outer central and nrn wtrs late Sat night thru sun evening.
High pres will slide offshore Mon with light east winds early
becoming south-southeast 10 to 20 kts late and seas mainly 3 to 5 ft.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Thursday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz156-158.



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