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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1032 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

a dry cold front will move through from the north overnight followed
by high pressure through mid week. A cold front will approach
from the west on Thursday and cross the area Thursday night and
Friday. High pressure will build over the region Saturday with
another cold front crossing Sunday.


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 1000 PM Monday...cold front has pushed through NE half of
area but stronger Post-frontal winds with cold air advection just reaching
northern obx, but still on track to spread across all areas by
morning. Slack pressure gradient along front allowed temps to drop
into mid 50s inland with radiational cooling and temps there will
initially rise back to near 60 next few hours with increased
mixing, but still expected to drop into mid-upper 40s by morning.

/Previous discussion/
as of 7 PM Mon...latest sfc analysis shows the dry cold front
south of Albemarle Sound and will continue to push south through
this evening. High pressure will start to build behind the
front...bringing cooler and drier across the area and gusty north-northeast
winds developing along the beaches. Overnight lows will range from
mid 40s well inland where winds will diminish to mid/upr 50s


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
as of 215 PM Mon...dry high pressure will quickly build in from
the northwest keeping skies mainly clear. Thicknesses support forecast
highs mainly in mid 60s.


Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 3 am Mon...surface ridge along the East Coast will move
offshore by midweek. A fast-moving cold front will approach from
the northwest Thursday, passes through eastern NC Thursday night,
then moves off the coast during the day Friday with precip ending
quickly from the west. Bulk of energy and moisture pass by to the
north, so have kept pops no higher than chance. Models disagree
next weekend. The GFS brings another cold front W/showers through
Saturday with high pressure building in Sunday. The European model (ecmwf) has a
ridge to the south Saturday, then brings a dry front through
Sunday, with the bulk of the moisture passing to the north. HPC
favors the European model (ecmwf) solution, so have kept dry pattern going Friday
into Sunday.


Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tue/...
as of 7 PM Mon...high confidence of VFR conditions will prevail
through the taf period. A dry cold front will cross the area
tonight and keep any clouds to the east of the taf sites if there
are any. Dry high pressure will build behind the front from the northwest
late tonight under a light north-northeast flow...limiting fog development.
Tuesday...expect mostly clear skies under northerly flow of 5-10

Long term /Tue night through Sat/...
as of 3 am Mon...VFR through Wednesday night. A fast-moving cold
front will bring scattered showers (no thunder) through Thursday
night then off the coast Friday. Bulk of shower activity will be
Thursday night. Surface winds will be from the north around 10
knots Tuesday, northeast around 5 knots Wednesday, southeast
around 5 knots Thursday and west around 5 knots Friday.


short term /through Tue/...
as of 1000 PM Monday...cold front currently moving across waters
from north and stronger Post-frontal north winds just reaching
northern waters which is slightly slower than forecast. Adjusted
winds with latest hrrr but still expecting 15-25 knots all waters 2
am-5 am and no change to Small Craft Advisory.

/Previous discussion/
as of 7 PM Mon...latest buoy obs are showing west-southwest 10-15 knots and
seas 2-5 ft with the highest over the central waters. Made minor
tweaks to the seas to reflect current trends.

A dry cold front, currently south of the Albemarle will push
south through this evening. A good surge of north-northeast winds will develop
behind the front late this evening into Tuesday morning. Cont prev
fcst trends with Small Craft Advisory developing most waters overnight with seas
reaching around 6 feet outer waters. High pres quickly builds in
from the northwest Tue and expect winds to diminish and seas drop below 6
feet by around mid day.

Long term /Tue night through Sat/...
as of 3 am Mon...north winds will decrease Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure builds across the area from the north.
Seas will subside to 3-5 feet Tuesday night as the pressure
gradient loosens and winds diminish. As the high shifts offshore
Wednesday, winds will veer to northeast Wednesday night, then from
east to southwest Thursday as another cold front approaches from
the west. The front will sweep through the marine zones Thursday
night and off the coast Friday with winds veering to northwest.
Winds and seas Tuesday night through Friday will be mostly light,
generally 10-15 knots and 2-4 feet. Only exception will be
Wednesday north of Ocracoke, where seas may temporarily build to
3-5 feet.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz130-131-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for amz150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 am to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for amz156-


near term...rf/jbm/bm
short term...rf
long term...hsa

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