Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 220818
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
418 am EDT sun Apr 22 2018
high pressure will continue to build over the region through the
weekend. A slow moving low pressure system will affect the area
Monday through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to push
through the area late next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 2 am sun...latest sfc analysis shows 1030mb high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes region into the mid-Atlantic and
eastern NC. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming into
the region from the west, ahead of the upper low moving through
the mid-west and developing sfc low in the Gulf states. Expect
more cloud cover today, with mainly high clouds though could see
some higher based cu develop with increasing onshore flow. Low
level thickness values, partly cloudy skies, and onshore flow
support highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the Outer Banks,
and mid 60s to low 70s inland.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Monday/...
as of 2 am sun...high pressure will slide off the coast tonight,
as surface and upper low approach from the west. Moisture
increases across the Carolinas, though expect any precip chances
to hold off until after daybreak. Not as cool overnight with
increasing clouds and easterly flow. Lows in the upper 40s to
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 345 am sun... surface high pressure will be off the mid-
Atlantic, influencing the weather across North Carolina, while a low
pressure system lifts towards the Carolinas from the Gulf states
through midweek. A though pattern will continue through the weekend
leading to additional showers.
Monday through Tuesday night...unsettled conditions continues
for this period as a significant upper low tracks across the
Southern Plains/MS valley through mid-week. High pressure will
continue to influence the weather Monday, delaying most of the
rain until Monday afternoon as the upper level low and sfc low
lifts towards the Carolinas Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile
the upper level low will weaken to an open wave and become
slightly negative tilted as it becomes absorbed with another
significant shortwave trough dropping down from the northern
plains. This system will have the potential for widespread rain
with amounts of 1-3 inches as the models continue to show
significant 850mb moisture transport from the Atlantic towards
the area Monday night and Tuesday. This can result in minor
flooding in low lying areas. The models are now consistent with
with track of the low moving farther inland, this will result in
the potential for severe weather as low level winds will be
backing, negative-tilted trough aloft, and modest instability
now present; will continue to monitor. Overall, expect moderate
to heavy rain, gusty winds and possible severe weather on
Tuesday. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s inland and low/mid
60s along the beaches.
Wednesday through the weekend...rain will become more scattered and
taper off as the sfc low lifts NE and drier air filters in. Most
places will have a break from rain Wednesday night until the other
aforementioned shortwave trough and it's associated weak cold front
approaches the area with rain redeveloping again Thursday. Then
another cold front will approach the area Friday and push through
Saturday with more rain showers. Expect highs in the 70s inland and
60s along the Outer Banks during the forecast period.
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through Sunday/...
as of 2 am sun...pred VFR expected through the period, with pgv
being the exception. Pgv has been reporting IFR vsbys with
shallow ground fog for the last few hours, even with 10 deg T/TD
spread. This could continue through 12z this morning. Scattered
to broken high clouds today, and could also see some high based
cu develop this afternoon with onshore flow. Clouds continue to
increase and lower tonight, and could see scattered MVFR
ceilings develop early Monday morning. East/east-southeast wind gusts up to
15kt this afternoon.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 300 am sub...VFR conditions will continue Monday as high
pressure influences the weather, but low level clouds will increase
as a low pressure system tracks towards the Carolinas producing
widespread rain Monday night and Tuesday resulting in MVFR
conditions with possible IFR. Conditions will slowly improve back to
VFR Wednesday, but the threat of showers will continue each day
resulting in sub-VFR conditions.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 2 am sun...latest obs show NE to southeast winds 5-15 kt with
seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will continue to extend over the
waters today, moving offshore tonight ahead of the approaching
low pressure system to the west. East-northeast winds 10-15 kt today with
seas 2-3 ft. Easterly winds increase to 10-20 kt tonight with
seas building to 2-4 ft.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 345 am sun...wind gradient will tighten Monday as a low
pressure system approaches the region from the Gulf states, expect east
winds 15-25 knots, then increasing to 20-30 knots Tuesday with gale
force gust. As the low lifts NE, winds will become SW 10-15 knots
Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to push through Thursday,
resulting in winds becoming northwest 5-15 knots. Seas will build 5-7 ft
throughout Monday, and continue to build as the sfc low approaches
the area, expect seas to reach as high 10-15 ft Tuesday. Seas will
gradually start to subside Tuesday night with seas becoming 5-8 ft
Wednesday and then around 5 ft Thursday.
as of 415 am sun...a low pressure system will lift from the
Gulf states Monday night and Tuesday. This can produce minor
coastal flooding along the Outer Banks, and counties adjacent to
the Pamlico Sound as strong southeast winds develop.
Marine...gale watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for