Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 191641
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1241 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
Hurricane Jose will move north away from the region through
tonight. High pressure builds in Wednesday and persists through
early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1235 PM Tuesday...winds and shra diminishing across NE
tier as Jose grad lifts north of the region.
Prev disc...Hurricane Jose about 240 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras
continues to move slowly north around 10 mph. The outer Jose
high cloud bands continue to extend into eastern NC with bands
of light showers moving through the Outer Banks. These showers
are expected to continue over the Outer Banks/sound counties
through early afternoon and will maintain likely pops there with
rainfall amounts a quarter of an inch or less expected in most
locations. Further west will taper off pops with little to no
precipitation expected west of Highway 17. Later this afternoon
will decrease pops and indicate drying further east as westerly
low level flow on the backside of Jose begins to dry things out.
Wind Advisory conditions along Hatteras Island will diminish by
late morning and will end the advisory at 15z. Highs today
should be similar to Monday, in the low to mid 80s inland and 75
to 80 beaches.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...Jose is forecast to continue moving north-northeast
away from the area with westerly flow leading to clearing skies
with weak high pressure building over the area. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 60s inland and lower 70s beaches.
Long term /Wednesday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Tue...improving conditions expected Wednesday as
high pressure will begin building across the region with dry
weather into early next week. High temperatures will increase
Wednesday and Thursday as heights aloft increase to above climo,
expecting highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low 80s
coast. Then beginning Friday, northeast flow develops and
slightly lower temps return. Expect highs in lower to mid 80s
inland with upper 70s northeast coast Friday through early next
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Wed/...
as of 1235 PM Tuesday...clouds grad lifting and sct out over
taf sites as Jose conts to lift NE away from the area. Expect
prev VFR rest of the period as Jose conts to lift north and high
pres builds in with mclr skies. As winds become light tonight
may see some patchy fog inland with temps reaching dewpts and
added some MVFR vsbys late.
Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tue...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning fog/br and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1235 PM Tuesday...winds slowly diminishing nrn tier as
Jose lifts north so dropped trop Storm Warning central and nrn wtrs.
Prev disc...Hurricane Jose is about 240 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras and moving slowly north. Strongest winds of 25 to 35 kt
with higher gusts are expected to continue through the morning
so will extend the ts warning until 18z. North flow will become northwest
with speeds diminishing to 15 to 25 kt this afternoon. Tonight
northwest winds will be 15 to 20 kt decreasing to 10 to 15 kt late.
Seas 10 to 15 ft this morning will subside to 6 to 10 ft late
today and 4 to 7 ft overnight.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tue...a surface ridge will build across the area
and linger through the weekend. Winds will be light in the loose
pressure gradient, generally 5-15 knots. The direction will
gradually veer through the period, with west Wednesday, north
northwest Thursday, then north to northeast Friday and Saturday.
North of Ocracoke, small craft seas will linger the entire
period. South of Ocracoke though, seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
into Thursday night, then build to 4-7 feet Friday and 5-9 feet
as of 925 am Tuesday...large swells from Hurricane Jose will
lead to variety of coastal impacts for the Outer Banks through
tonight. Significant ocean overwash developed this morning north of
cape hat and although winds and seas will diminish by this
evening still looks like tidal departures will be big enough to
produce flooding of Highway 12 again during the evening high
tide so issued coastal Flood Warning mainly for areas north of
Hatteras. Minor to moderate beach erosion and high surf will
continue. Minor sound side flooding will also persist adjacent
to eastern portion of Pamlico Sound.
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz095-
Coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz095-
Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ncz103.
High surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz103.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for amz130-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for amz156-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for amz150.