Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 201522
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1022 am EST Fri Jan 20 2017
a weak cool front will move through the region today. A strong
area of low pressure and frontal system will impact the area
Sunday through Monday. High pressure will then build into the
area from the south through mid week. A cold front will move
through the area late next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 10 am Friday...latest sfc analysis shows high pressure
extending down from the New England area...providing an east/south-southeast
wind flow across east NC. At the same time, mid-upper level
disturbance will cross the area this afternoon and lift NE. An
area of rain showers ahead of the disturbance and expecting the
best chances for rain will be along the northwest section of our County Warning Area
and along Hwy 64. High-resolution models shows the bulk of the
rain should be offshore by around 21z. Kept most of the area
with 30 percent probability of precipitation while increasing pops to 40 percent along
the northwest sections. Only expecting light amt of rain; only a few
hundreths of an inch. With no real airmass change, temperatures
should be quite mild this afternoon, with highs low/mid 60s
northern areas, ranging to the upper 60s to around 70 in the
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Saturday/...
as of 345 am Friday, skies will clear tonight with a favorable
pattern for dense fog with winds becoming calm with minimal
temperature/dewpoint spread. Lows tonight will range from the
mid 40s northern counties to lower 50s south.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 345 am Friday...
No major changes with just some fine tuning of precip chances
through the period. The arrival of precipitation Saturday is
somewhat slower, but arrives from southwest to northeast later
Saturday through Monday. We kept Saturday morning dry for now, with
the highest chances for rain Saturday over the far southwest. Storm Prediction Center
has expanded the day 3 outlook to include our entire area in a
marginal risk for severe weather 12z Sunday to 12z Monday, with a
slight risk over the southern most counties. Still looking at a Low
Cape high shear environment with cape values generally below 500
j/kg, with winds veering and increasing with height. With the
adjustment northward from Storm Prediction Center we put some extra wording in the severe weather potential statement
this morning. Main threat appears to be linear squall lines with
potential for damaging winds. Some hail also can't be ruled out.
While the above time frame is the best window for severe weather,
thunderstorms are possible anytime from later Saturday through
High pressure builds in by mid week with a return to drier weather.
The next front late in the week arrives about 12 hours sooner than
model runs 24 hours ago. With that in mind we introduced chances
for rain now on Thursday.
Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through 12z Sat/...
as of 7 am Friday, VFR conditions initially this morning, but do
expect ceilings to lower with a few periods of MVFR ceilings
from mid-morning through early afternoon along with spotty
showers. Ceilings rise to above 5000 feet or higher by late
afternoon into tonight. Conditions will become favorable for fog
by late Friday night with light winds and minimal temp/dewpoint
spreads and will forecast IFR vsbys at most of the taf sites by
07z or so.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 340 am Friday... VFR early Saturday then widespread MVFR
restrictions likely Saturday afternoon through Monday all terminals.
IFR conditions can't be ruled out in periods of heavier rain. Strong
winds off the surface with a quick change in wind direction may
produce low level wind shear or at the very least, bumpy flying conditions during
the period. VFR returns Tuesday.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 10 am Friday...latest buoy obs are showing east-northeast/east 5-10
knots and seas 3-5 ft with some long period swells, especially
in the northern waters this morning. Weak high pressure
extending from the New England area will weaken and winds will
become southeast at 5-15 knots through tonight. Seas will generally be
in the 3-5 foot range through the period with some longer
period swells (10-12 seconds) persisting into tonight. No major
changes to the marine forecast for this update.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 340 am Friday...light southeast winds Saturday veer into the
southwest Sunday and increase to over 20 knots. Southwest winds
remain around 20 to 25 knots Sunday night through Tuesday, with the
exception being a few hours either side of daybreak Monday when a
brief lull in winds are expected. In response to the increase wind
field, seas will build late Saturday night into Sunday morning to
between to 3 feet nearshore and 6 feet over the outer waters. Small
craft conditions are possible as early as Saturday night, but most
likely Sunday into early next week. Waves will build to 5-6 feet
near shore by Sunday afternoon and may be as high as 11 feet in the
outer waters. Small craft advisories will be likely through the