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fxus63 kmkx 190551 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1151 PM CST sun Nov 18 2018


High clouds will hang around tonight...keeping temps from falling
quite as far as they might otherwise. The forecast looks to be on
track for the remainder of the night.


Aviation(06z tafs)...

Quiet weather is expected overnight, with high clouds lingering
across southern Wisconsin. A shortwave will then bring a chance
for snow mid-morning into the afternoon. The best chance for a
light dusting will be north of Madison and Milwaukee, though most
places will see at least some flurries. Ceilings will probably
drop to MVFR for a times this afternoon into early Evening.

Lake effect snow will brush the Lakeshore counties mid evening
into early tonight and may bring a quick dusting. MVFR ceilings
and briefly lower visibilities will be possible with this snow.


Previous discussion... (issued 949 PM CST sun Nov 18 2018)

Update...cirrus clouds are rapidly expanding across southern WI
ahead of approaching northern plains low pressure and warm air and
moisture advection. These clouds will slow the overnight
temperature tumble from the early evening. The main issue over the
next 24 hours will be the threat for a period of snow showers
along the lake between 00z-06z Tuesday as the low level winds
briefly turn northeast. Snow showers at this point look to be
progressive and should not deposit snowfall in excess of an inch.

Marine...most vessels on the open waters reporting west or SW winds
of 10 to 15 knots late this evening, however gusts of 15 to 20
knots lingering at times over the southern part of the lake per
Southern Lake Michigan buoy and tug off Kenosha shore. These
southwest gusts will continue through the night and turn to the
north to northwest behind passing low pressure later Monday. Gusts
to 30 knots will be possible on Monday into Monday night in the
open waters.

Previous discussion... (issued 531 PM CST sun Nov 18 2018)

Update...high clouds will increase through the evening due to
upstream sharpening short wave across the northern plains and warm
air advection ahead of the wave. Temperatures will fall off
rapidly this evening before leveling off. A few locations
approaching overnight lows, so wl have to lower minimum
temperatures some areas into the mid to upper teens.

Aviation(00z tafs)...mid-high clouds will increase overnight with
VFR conditions expected through Monday morning. Passing short wave
trof and mid-level wave will bring lower MVFR ceilings to the area
Monday afternoon. 2 to 5 hour period of northeast winds may bring
some lake effect snow showers to the Lakeshore areas including
kmke and kenw Monday evening, between 01z and 06z.

Previous discussion... (issued 252 PM CST sun Nov 18 2018)

Short term...

This evening through Monday night...forecast confidence moderate
to high...

A cool but otherwise pleasant day is underway this afternoon, with
temperatures in the low 30s under sunny skies. Expect to see
temperatures fall into the low 20s tonight, with increasing clouds
ahead of another shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes.

That wave and associated weak surface low and frontal boundary
will bring a chance for flurries or very light snow showers to the
area Monday. The best chances Monday will be across the far
north, generally from The Dells to Sheboygan. No appreciable
accumulation is expected, with just a very light dusting at the most.

Winds will become northerly behind the passing front, which will
likely result in a lake effect snow band developing over Lake
Michigan Monday evening. Right now it looks like this band may
skirt the Wisconsin shoreline Monday evening into Monday night. A
dusting to half inch of new snow is possible along the Lakeshore
through Tuesday morning should this band affect land.

Long term...

Tuesday through Thursday...forecast confidence high...

Tuesday will be another cold day, with highs around 30. Another
passing wave may again bring a few flurries to the far north
Tuesday night, but for now, most of the precipitation looks to
remain north of the forecast area.

Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit on Wednesday, with
highs creeping into the mid 30s. A solid southerly breeze will
kick in for Thanksgiving, helping to boost highs into the upper
30s to near 40.

Friday through Sunday...forecast confidence moderate...

Precipitation chances--in the form of rain--will start to develop
by Friday, with a decent chance for showers Friday and Saturday.
Continued low level warm air advection will support temperatures
in the mid 40s during the day, and nighttime lows in the mid 30s
into Sunday.

Aviation(21z taf update)...

VFR will continue into mid day tomorrow. Skies will remain clear
into this evening, with mid and high level clouds moving in from
the north overnight. MVFR ceilings and a few snow showers are
possible Monday afternoon. Additional snow showers are then
possible at mke Monday evening, depending on whether a lake effect
snow band makes it onshore from Lake Michigan. Even if it does,
accumulations are expected to remain light.

Winds will remain from the west to southwest through mid day on


Open waters...

West to southwest winds remain breezy this afternoon, especially
across the northern portion of the lake, with gusts to 30 knots.
Winds will decrease a bit heading into the nighttime hours

Winds will become northerly on Monday as a front moves through the
area. An area of 20 to 30 knot winds will develop and push south
through the lake Monday afternoon into Monday evening in
association with the front. Expect waves to increase as well.

Another passing system will bring a period of near gale force
westerly winds Tuesday night, with winds becoming northerly behind
an associated cold front.

Southerly flow then returns to Lake Michigan Thursday and Friday.
South to southwest winds may approach or exceed gale force during
this time.


Increasing north winds will result in higher waves Monday night
across the nearshore waters, and a Small Craft Advisory may
eventually be needed for this time. Winds are likely reach small
craft levels Tuesday night into Wednesday, and again Thursday and


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories...


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