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fxus62 kmlb 151358 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
958 am EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Update...

A few light showers were observed this morning across the Treasure
Coast associated with an area of enhanced moisture with radar
estimates showing a tenth of an inch or less of accumulation.
Otherwise most areas were mostly sunny with temperatures already
in the low 80s/mid 80s as of 930am.

Morning xmr sounding reveals an increase in low-level moisture
since last evening with precipitable water coming in at 1.7 inches.
GOES 16 total precipitable is showing this well with most of east
central Florida around the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. Even with this
increase in low-level moisture, the atmosphere is still rather
suppressed due to the mid-level high pressure overhead along with
a lot of dry air above 700-mb and warm temperatures aloft. This
will keep most of the area dry, but the hrrr is insistent on
developing a few showers this afternoon along the sea breeze
mainly north and west of I-4 across the interior. Will keep
inherited slight chance of showers in this area with no changes
otherwise.

Well above average temperatures continue with highs in the upper
80s/near 90 along the coast and low 90s over the interior. A
couple record highs could be threatened today, particularly
Melbourne and Sanford where daily records for today currently
stand at 91 degrees, respectively (see climate section below).

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions expected through the taf period although a few
brief broken MVFR ceilings (2500-3000 ft agl) are possible late
this morning as the cumulus field develops. A few showers may be
in the vicinity of Lee, mco, and sfb this afternoon but chances
too low to include vcsh. Some patchy fog is possible near the
interior terminals late tonight into early Tuesday morning but not
confident enough to include yet.

&&

Marine...

No changes planned to the inherited forecast with latest buoy
41009 observations showing seas near 3 feet and 5-10 kt south-southeast winds
this morning. Winds will back to east-southeast/southeast this afternoon with
speeds around 10 kt north of Sebastian Inlet and 10-15 kt to the
south. Seas will be 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore.

&&

Climate...

Record highs for Monday Oct. 15 through Wednesday Oct. 17

Date temperature year date temperature year date temperature year
dab 15-Oct 92 1959 16-Oct 91 1936 17-Oct 90 1925
mco 15-Oct 93 1919 16-Oct 95 1925 17-Oct 95 1925
sfb 15-Oct 91 1971 16-Oct 92 1971 17-Oct 90 1952
mlb 15-Oct 91 1959 16-Oct 90 1959 17-Oct 90 1975
vrb 15-Oct 94 2009 16-Oct 92 2009 17-Oct 90 1974
fpr 15-Oct 93 2009 16-Oct 91 2009 17-Oct 93 1906

Record warm lows for Monday Oct. 15 through Wednesday Oct. 17

Date temperature year date temperature year date temperature year
dab 15-Oct 76 1993 16-Oct 77 1933 17-Oct 76 1998
mco 15-Oct 74 2009 16-Oct 74 1959 17-Oct 74 1989
sfb 15-Oct 74 2017 16-Oct 74 2017 17-Oct 72 1959
mlb 15-Oct 80 2017 16-Oct 79 2007 17-Oct 75 2007
vrb 15-Oct 77 2017 16-Oct 78 2007 17-Oct 79 1990
fpr 15-Oct 79 1928 16-Oct 78 2016 17-Oct 77 1985

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
mco 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 10 10
mlb 90 78 90 75 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 88 77 89 74 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 93 73 92 75 / 20 10 10 10
sfb 92 74 92 74 / 20 0 10 10
orl 92 75 93 76 / 20 0 10 10
fpr 88 76 88 74 / 20 20 10 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

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