Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 191355
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
955 am EDT sun Aug 19 2018
Latest rap40 analysis shows the h100-h70 Bermuda ridge axis
extending from the vcnty of Sebastian Inlet to Tampa Bay, resulting
in a dominant srly flow...S/se south of the inlet, and S/SW to the
north. The dry air pocket that has kept precip coverage blo avg for
the past few days has eroded significantly and has pushed into the
open Atlc...allowing pwat values acrs central Florida to recover to btwn
1.75"-2.00". Even so, the 19/12z radiosonde observations do not show the moisture
concentrated in the low/mid lvls. Indeed, rap40 shows h100-h70 mean
relative humidity btwn 70-80pct, enough to support sct coverage at best. Mid lyrs
remain on the dry side as well with 850 mb-h50 dewpoint depressions
btwn 7-10c...h70-h50 btwn 10-15c.
With a prevailing srly flow, both east and West Coast sea breezes
will form by early aftn, but will make slow inland progress. Thru
sunset, precip coverage will be sporadic, with the best chances
occurring along the East Coast sea breeze just inland from the coast
from Brevard co. Southward. Coverage will tend to concentrate along
and north of the I-4 corridor toward sunset. Lingering dry mid lyr
air across the nrn counties will support wind gusts arnd 40kts
toward sunset as the east/West Coast sea breezes begin to interact.
Chance shras/tsras will continue into the early evening for points
north and west of Orlando due to late boundary collisions. Lingering
rains should dissipate by midnight.
Max temps will again reach the mid 90s over the north interior.
Upper 80s/around 90 along the Treasure Coast where storms are
expected to initiate by early afternoon.
Sfc winds: thru 19/15z...S/SW 4-7kts. Btwn 19/15z-19/17z...coastal
sites bcmg east/southeast 8-12kts. Btwn 19/17z-19/19z...interior sites bcmg
S/southeast 6-10kts. Btwn 20/00z-20/03z...bcmg S 3-6kts. Btwn 20/03z-
20/06z...bcmg vrbl at or below 3kts.
Vsbys/wx/cigs: thru 19/16z...east of kmlb-Kobe slgt chc MVFR shras/IFR
tsras. Btwn 19/16z-19/19z...east of kevb-kism sct MVFR shras/IFR
tsras...north of kevb-kism slgt chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras. Btwn 19/19z-
19/24z...sct MVFR shras/IFR tsras all sites. Btwn 19/22z-20/02z...north
of kism-ktix sct MVFR shras/IFR tsras...S of kism-ktix slgt chc MVFR
Bermuda ridge axis positioned btwn Cape Canaveral and lake-o will
generate a light to gentle srly flow acrs the LCL Atlc...S/se south
of the cape...S/SW north of the cape but backing to S/southeast by early
aftn with the formation of the East Coast sea breeze. Seas at or below 2ft.
Isold shras over the open Atlc, mainly in the Gulf Stream. Sct
shras/tsras dvlpg along the East Coast sea breeze may generate
strong outflows arnd 35kts over the icw.