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fxus62 kmlb 152059 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
359 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Discussion...

Tonight/Sunday...a secondary frontal boundary will push across the
area this evening and some partial clearing should result as drier
air - at least in the mid levels - advects in. There will also be
some cooler air moving in with lows in the mid to upper 50s which
is still slightly above normal for mid December. There will still
be moisture trapped in the low levels beneath a sharpening
subsidence inversion. This will produce periods of cloudiness
but no measurable rain is expected. Max temps will range from the
upper 60s across North Lake/Volusia counties to the mid 70s
Okeechobee to Treasure Coast.

Sun night-Tue...this period will start with a low pressure off the
coast of New York and a trough extending towards the Bahamas. As the
night progresses, a rather weak pressure gradient over the area will
keep light winds from the northwest and with precipitable water values of near
half an inch, no weather is expected. This weather pattern will be
reinforced with the approach of a mid level high pressure from the
Gulf. This high is forecast to move east over the Gulf Coast and a
ridge reaching Canada on Monday and Monday night. Locally, light
winds will remain from the north-northwest to north through Tuesday, and
temperatures will be able to drop a few degrees below normal.

Tue night-Sat...a ridge will extend from the northeast U.S. Towards
Florida, lowering winds over east central Florida overnight. By Wed
afternoon, the high will be centered and exiting through the
Carolinas towards the Atlantic waters as its being pushed out by a
developing low pressure over Canada and stretching south over the
Great Lakes. During this period, dry and stable conditions will
predominate over the local area and no weather is expected, other
than isolated showers possible over the Atlantic waters at times.

After Wed night, the high pressure will be over the western Atlantic
and the low over the Great Lakes will dig south and deepen during
the next few days. The south trough will stretch into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture into our area, starting Wed night
into Thursday. As the low strengthens and shifts towards the southeast
U.S., Winds will increase and shift from from south to west. Both
the GFS and Euro are agreeing in their solutions, which is rare this
far in the forecast. Rain probabilities are highest on Thursday as
the trough swings over the peninsula, possibly bringing active
weather and storms. On Friday, the trough should be moving away from
Florida and weather conditions should improve and by Saturday, a high
pressure will be moving in from the Gulf, for a clear and cooler
weekend.

&&

Aviation...
occasional MVFR cigs this afternoon will gradually break up as a
reinforcing or secondary frontal boundary pushes across the
terminals this evening. Band of showers will affect fpr-sua
through 23z. On Sunday, west to northwest winds 10 knots with considerable
stratocu at times but will keep cloud cigs VFR (035-045 agl).



&&

Marine...
tonight/Sunday...a secondary frontal boundary will cross the
waters this evening and reinforce the west/northwest offshore flow. Wind
speeds will be around 10 knots near the coast and 10-15 knots
offshore. Seas 3 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore.

Sun night-Tue...with a weak pressure gradient and a approaching high
pressure to southeast U.S., Winds will remain light turning from the
northwest on Sun night to north-northwest to north on Tuesday.

Tue night-Thu...high pressure over the East Coast U.S. Will stretch
south towards Florida, allowing for light winds over the waters.
However, this will rapidly change on Thursday, with the approach of
a trough extending from the southeast U.S. Winds will turn from the
south and increase to advisory levels during the day. In our current
forecast, winds for this period were capped below 25 knots as it is
on the far end of our forecast period. But with such good agreement
between the two main models, we expect for the end of the work week
to be a windy one.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 54 69 47 64 / 10 0 0 0
mco 57 71 49 66 / 10 10 0 0
mlb 59 73 50 67 / 10 10 0 0
vrb 58 74 51 67 / 10 10 10 0
Lee 55 69 47 64 / 10 10 0 0
sfb 56 70 48 65 / 10 0 0 0
orl 57 70 49 65 / 10 10 0 0
fpr 59 74 50 68 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.

&&

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