Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 241400
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1000 am EDT Tue Apr 24 2018
well dvlpd storm system centered over the Ohio/Tennessee River valleys has
push a cold front south of the I-4 corridor. Latest analysis shows
the front extending from Cape Canaveral to ft. Myers, co-located
with a band of enhanced h100-h70 moisture with mean relative humidity values btwn
80-90pct...tight moisture gradient behind the front with areas north
of I-4 dropping blo 50pct. Mrng raobs depict the moisture boundary
as well with pwat values btwn 1.25-1.50" at kxmr/ktbw/kmfl, and btwn
0.50"-0.75" at kjax/ktae.
Rap40 analysis shows the bulk of mid/upr lvl dynamic support pushing
off the space/Treasure/Gold coasts as of mid mrng, 850 mb-h30 Omega and
h30-h20 divergence bull's eyes over the Gulf Stream. There are
secondary maxima west of ft. Myers and the Florida Keys, but these are
embedded within deep westerly flow and appear poised to pass largely
south of lake-o. Respectable thermodynamic instability ahead of the
front with h70 temps btwn 6c/7c and h50 temps btwn -10c/-11c,
yielding lapse rates arnd 6.5c/km thru the lyr.
Mrng fcst package looks on target as precip will be confined to
areas south of I-4 this aftn, and increasingly south of lake-k and
Sebastian Inlet as the front continues its slow March through
central Florida. Latest vsbl Sat pics show "lumpy cu" confined to areas
south of Cape Canaveral/lake-k, sct-bkn low stratocu to the north.
Will shave precip coverage back to Osceola/S Brevard based on this
trend. No other changes necessary.
Sfc winds: thru 25/02z...W/SW 8-12kts...north of kism-kmlb ocnl sfc g18-
22kts. Btwn 25/02z-25/05z...bcmg west/SW 5-8kts.
Vsbys/wx/cigs: thru 24/17z...north of kism-ktix areas bkn020-030/LCL
bkn010-020...S of kism-ktix areas bkn010-020/LCL bkn005-009. Btwn
24/17z-24/24z...S of kism-ktix nmrs MVFR shras/chc IFR tsras. Btwn
25/00z-25/03z...S of kvrb-Kobe slgt chc MVFR shras. &&
storm system over the Ohio/Tennessee valleys will push a cold front into the
Treasure Coast waters this aftn, then south of Jupiter Inlet thru
midnight. Gentle to moderate west/SW breeze will prevail thru late
aftn, bcmg light to gentle aft sunset. Seas 2-4ft nearshore and 3-
5ft offshore, mainly in an easterly swell. Shras likely/chc tsras
over the Treasure Coast waters, chc shras/slgt chc tsras over the
space coast waters.