Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
336 am EST sun Feb 25 2018
..near record warmth across the region today and tomorrow...
Today-tonight...strong ridge aloft remains across the area, as ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic persists across central
Florida. Low level winds will be out of the S/SW today and will help
delay development of the East Coast sea breeze this afternoon,
especially north of the cape where flow is slightly more offshore.
This will allow temperatures to be even warmer today, with highs
reaching the mid 80s along the coast and mid to possibly upper 80s
over the interior.
Isolated showers will initially be possible along the Brevard and
Treasure Coast this afternoon, where greater low level moisture will
reside and where sea breeze first forms. Then as sea breeze pushes
westward and collides with the West Coast breeze across the interior
from late this afternoon into this evening, additional isolated
showers will be possible farther north and inland. Very mild
temperatures will continue overnight with lows in the mid to upper
60s. Also, weaker boundary layer winds may allow patchy fog to
develop late tonight, mainly over the interior.
Mon-Tue...guid for early in the week shows that the ridge largely
responsible for the streak of abnormally warm Feb temps over the
area will only be temporarily weakened by passing wave energy
migrating over the Tennessee Valley and southeast states. A surface front is
forecast to drag across central Florida late Mon night/ early Tue
providing some temperature relief as well as a slight chc of
showers for the same period. Winds will veer back direct onshore
by Tue night beginning another return to milder temps with
relatively high humidity and a slight chc of mainly marine and
Extended...broad upr ridging initially centered over the gulfmex
will rebuild ewd over the state. Pattern will once again shunt
pcpn chcs locally through mid to late week along with a warming
trend. Minimal opportunity for moisture return ahead of a rapidly
approaching front early Fri will bring only a small rain chc ahead
of a more notable cooldown into the weekend with Continental winds
and dry conds through at least Sunday.
Aviation...mainly VFR. Some patchy ground fog possible across the
interior early this morning. However, better chance for patchy fog
and tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be late tonight, as boundary
layer winds weaken. Isolated showers may briefly reduce conditions
to MVFR this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves slowly
inland and collides with the West Coast breeze across the interior.
However, with rain chances remaining quite low, will keep vcsh or
tempo groups out of the tafs for now.
today-tonight...ridge axis across the waters will keep a more
southerly flow across the waters today, becoming east/southeast near the coast
in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Wind
speeds forecast to remain below 15 knots with seas ranging from 2-4
feet nearshore and 3-5 feet offshore.
Mon-Tue...S-SW winds during Mon will quickly veer to north component
with psg of the front Mon night or early Tue. Post frontal winds
of 15 to 20 kt possible mainly over the outer waters during Tue,
but are forecast to diminish by early Wed morning.
Extended...mostly favorable conditions through mid week should be
expected with high pressure rebuilding from the west. Another
front passing during Fri will act to increase winds and steepen
seas behind front during Fri into the weekend.
Climate...a few additional warm minimum temperature records could
be set or tied today and tomorrow. Daytona Beach has the best shot
of reaching their high temperature record for today, with a better
chance for maximum temperature records being reached or exceeded
across the area tomorrow, Monday, February 26th.
Record highs and warm lows for today and tomorrow:
February 25 February 26
high warm low high warm low
Daytona Beach 86-2001 66-1928 89-1939 65-1945
Orlando Intl 90-1962 68-1912 89-1971 70-1912
Sanford 89-1962 67-2011 89-1971 66-2011
Melbourne 87-2013 70-2001 91-1939 68-1945
Vero Beach 87-2017 70-2001 86-2013 69-2013
ft. Pierce 87-2017 69-2001 90-1928 71-2013
With temperatures still forecast to remain well above normal through
the remainder of the month, a record warm February is certain for
Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach and
Fort Pierce coming in second warmest. Average temperature values for
the month at Orlando and Melbourne, will likely shatter their
previous record warm February by +2.0 degrees.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 84 66 85 66 / 20 10 20 20
mco 87 67 89 68 / 20 20 20 20
mlb 85 68 85 68 / 20 10 20 20
vrb 84 67 86 65 / 20 10 20 20
Lee 86 67 87 68 / 20 20 20 20
sfb 87 66 87 68 / 20 20 20 20
orl 87 68 88 69 / 20 20 20 20
fpr 84 67 86 64 / 20 10 20 20