Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 241350
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
940 am EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Today...morning soundings show just a bit more moisture in place
compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values some 1/4 inch higher than this time
yesterday. Still values only near of just below 1.5 inch at xmr to
near 1.8 in tbw. Soundings also continue to show relatively warm air
aloft due to ridge still being nearly stacked over region.
Pronounced cap around 700 mb with temps +11 to 12c over central FL, and
500 mb readings -4 to -5c. The affects of the ridge will continue to
supress convection, but increased moisture should increase coverage
compared to yesterday. Ongoing rain showers activity over coastal waters
support this idea.
Short range guidance, both local arw-WRF and hrrr depict rain showers first
developing near or just inland of the coast south of the cape with
more vigorous storm development over the interior by late afternoon
due to east and West Coast sea breeze interaction. Low level ridge
position a bit south of past days should support more focus closer
to the coast north of the cape (along I-4 coridor), but
aformentioned models have backed off on coverage compared to
previous runs. Will continue to monitor trends. Weak steering flow
from south to north will support localized heavy rainfall,
especially along breeze collision and secondary boundary
interactions...again mainly over the interior.
Will keep forecast largely as is with rain showers/ts coverage, and
soundings support temp fcst. Only minor tweaks to winds made for
VFR into midday with scattered thunderstorms and rain developing this afternoon
focused on northern terminals (mco/sfb/dab) where breeze boundary
interactions will be more pronounced late. Will consider tempo
period with 18z update.
prev... today...Atlc ridge axis draped across central Florida and
adjacent Atlc will produce a southerly flow turning southeast near the
coast in a sea breeze this afternoon. A small (2 ft) east swell will
be the primary contribution to wave height in addition to a small
wind chop. Combined seas up to 4 ft well offshore (beyond 20 nm)
Volusia and Brevard coasts.