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fxus63 kmpx 292357 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
657 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Water vapor imagery clearly illustrates the upper low rotating
over central/eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, with ample moisture
streaming northward into the area. Measurable precipitation on
radar imagery correlates with isentropic upglide on the 295k
surface. This area of lift will shift gradually north and east
through the evening hours toward east central Minnesota and west central

Overnight, as colder air works into the area and the column cools,
we could see some light snow mixing in, primarily over west
central WI.

On Thursday, the upper circulation meanders across Iowa and
Missouri. This will mean a prolonged chance of light rain for the
far south and east (southern Minnesota toward eau claire). By Thursday
eve, locations in far south central and southeast Minnesota could see 24
hour rain totals in the one half to three quarter inch range.

Temperatures will lower into the low/mid 30s tonight, with lower
40s to lower 50s common for highs. Winds have been a bit stronger
in the south than models were projecting, so have increased speeds
a bit. Do expect some gusts into the the mid/upper teens (knots).

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

By Thursday evening, most of the precipitation should have ended
across southeast Minnesota. Lingering clouds across the southeast
one half of mpx forecast area should remain due to moisture/cyclonic
flow from the departing upper low. Slowly, as the system departs
Friday/Friday night, a ridge of high pressure will provide a couple
of days of dry and mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures should
rebound from the 40s and lower 50s, to the mid to upper 50s by

The extended period remains progressive as the continued fetch of
wave, after wave, moves inland across the West Coast. The upper flow
pattern remains split in the mid section of the nation, with the
southern stream more active for the next 7 days. There are some
uncertainties on precipitation chances late in the weekend, and into
next week due to this split flow pattern. Therefore, past this
weekend, forecast confidence remains low on wet vs. Dry.
Temperatures should lean near to above normal with this type of
pattern, and a mostly Pacific type air mass regime.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

MVFR cigs are working north into central Minnesota and west central WI
early this evening. A few IFR cigs have also been evident, but
these have been localized. MVFR cigs will continue through
Thursday morning before gradually lifting. Rain has also spread up
into the southern third of Minnesota, but should retreat back to the
southeast later this evening.

Kmsp...cigs should quickly settle to MVFR levels early this
evening and continue tonight through Thursday morning. A few cigs
may fall into the 015-020 range later this evening.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind south-southeast 5-10 kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


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