Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmpx 240401 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1101 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018
Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018
A weak cold front that was across northwest Minnesota this
afternoon will move southward overnight, and shift the winds to
the north. This front is moisture starved and will likely go
through without any measurable precipitation. However, I can't
rule out a sprinkle or two during the morning/afternoon,
especially in western Minnesota. This front will drop temperatures
back to near normal on Tuesday. However, this is almost normal for
this time of year.
Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018
Very little impactful weather is expected through the upcoming
weekend. Another frontal boundary will move across the region
Thursday, but again, moisture is limited as Gulf moisture is
cutoff. The main weather element after Tuesday will be a few cool
nights with lows dropping to near freezing. Highs will generally
be near 60 degrees.
By late in the week, and into next weekend, the mean pattern
begins to shift from the northwest, to the southwest. This means
warmer and more unsettled weather developing by next week. This
could possibly include thunderstorms.
There remains some differences in the GFS/ec in terms of a
developing upper ridge in the southeast Continental U.S. (Gfs), vs a more
progressive pattern (ec) by next Tuesday. If the forecast is more
in line of the GFS, this would mean a very unsettled and a
prolonged period of wet weather. This is due to the upper ridge
holding in the southeast Continental U.S. And allow deeper moisture and less
of a chance of a Canadian air mass moving through. The more
progressive pattern of the ec will lead to a short period of wet
weather, and another cool down by next week. The Gem is more in
line with the GFS with the upper ridge holding in the southeast.
Even if the more progressive pattern wins out, the air mass behind
the ec is more modified and less of a chance of well below normal
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018
VFR conditions through the period. Mid level clouds will increase
late tonight and Tuesday morning, with clearing expected mid
afternoon. Light or calm winds tonight will increase from the
north with some gusts of 20 kts possible Tuesday.
Kmsp...no additional concerns.
/Outlook for kmsp/
Wed...VFR. Wind light/variable.
Thu...chc MVFR/-shra. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming northwest 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind northwest 5-10 kts.