Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmpx 280409
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1109 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017
Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017
Surface high pressure from Hudson Bay southwestward into the Central
Plains will be the prevailing low level weather feature across the
area through the next 30 hours. Aloft, once a weak shortwave trough
swings through the Great Lakes late this afternoon, potentially
producing isolated showers in the WI portion of the weather forecast office mpx coverage
area, deep ridging aligned along the Lee side of The Rockies will
spread east tonight through tomorrow. The combination of ridging
aloft and surface high pressure will keep the area dry and mild. The
only cloud cover expected for the region is afternoon mid-level fair
weather cumulus clouds both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will also be on the weak side from the east, less than 10 mph,
and going light/variable overnight. Patchy to areas of fog are
likely to develop overnight once decoupling develops late this
evening, with the fog persisting through daybreak. The lack of
airmass change means nearly identical high temperatures for tomorrow
as what is experienced today, mainly in the lower 80s.
Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017
An overall benign long term period is expected as high
pressure/ridging prevails. Near-normal temperatures will prevail,
along with dry weather for the most part.
Other than a small opportunity for precipitation on Saturday night
into Sunday as a shortwave tops the mid level ridge, the weekend
looks dry and mild. Any precipitation would most likely be light
and confined to west central Minnesota, given the surface ridge will be
in place from the Great Lakes into eastern Minnesota.
The other window for precipitation arrives Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a cold front trailing south from a shortwave trough
over northern Manitoba/Ontario moves across the area. With little
in the way of moisture to work with (given northerly low level
flow), any measurable precipitation would be minimal.
After that surface high pressure will build back in, with
continued dry weather expected through the work week.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017
No changes to previous tafs as VFR conditions will prevail. The
only exception is patchy dense in low lying areas in west central
Wisconsin, usually in the typical stream and river valleys during
the pre dawn hours.
No additional concerns.
/Outlook for kmsp/
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
Sun & Mon...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms and rain possible. Wind SW 5 kts.