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fxus63 kmpx 192119 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
319 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 310 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Little in the way in short term concerns. Still will see a fair
amount of high clouds streaming in from the west/southwest. If
clouds thin long enough overnight, we may have to introduce at
least some patchy fog over the cwa later tonight. Had another fair
amount of melting again today and it is the second day. We should
have abundant enough low level moisture to at least think about
some patchy fog in mainly clear areas. Looking for more clouds
again Saturday and this will limit heating some. However, we may
be too cool again if sunshine is more abundant.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 310 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Main concern in the longer term remains the headline/winter storm
potential Sunday night and Monday.

The 12z GFS and Gem have come in with little in the way of
shifting the resultant snow band from the 00z runs. The 12z European model (ecmwf)
did drop a bit farther south however. There will likely still be
some shifting in the overall snow band as the trough is just now
coming onto the southwest coast. Quantitative precipitation forecast has been lessened to the
northwest and still ranging from one half inch to near an inch in
the heavier Winter Storm Watch area.

The heavier period of snow still looks to be 12z-18z Monday with
the morning commute affected. Snowfall rates could range around an
inch an hour during this period. This shifts east by Tuesday
evening and we did extend the watch into Tuesday evening farther
to the east. We also added the remainder of he southern counties
to the watch with a couple of counties to the northwest. Blowing
and drifting will be an issue especially along the Minnesota River
Valley Monday. We will likely see wind gusts to 35 mph with
considerable blowing and drifting snow. The southwest will have
to be monitored for possible blizzard conditions if winds end up
stronger.

Cooler temperatures will ensue following the storm- closer to
normal readings. The overall upper flow pattern returns to ridging
over the central Continental U.S. Toward the end of the week. This should
warm temperatures above normal again through the end of the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1120 am CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR conditions with fair amount of high clouds through the period.
Light south southwest winds becoming more west northwest from
west to east this afternoon. Speeds will only be about 5 to 10
kts. Some threat of fog into the night with second day of snow
melt, but believe will have enough cloud around to preclude at
this time.

Kmsp...
no additional aviation concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Sun night...MVFR early, IFR or lower with snow. Chance of light
wintry mix but all snow likely after 06z. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
Mon...IFR or lower most of the day with sn/blsn. Wind north 15-25 kts
gusting to 30 kts.
Tue...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind northwest at 10-15 kts.



&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for wiz014>016-023>028.

Minnesota...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for mnz053-060>063-065>070-073>077-082>085-091>093.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for mnz078.

&&

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