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fxus63 kmpx 222000 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 3:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Some much welcome sunshine is present this afternoon as the
slow moving low that brought heavy rain across southern Minnesota
& widespread cloud cover finally moves off towards the Ohio
Valley. A calm night is expected tonight with light winds & a
moist boundary layer created the potential for patchy fog, though
high cloud cover should limit any widespread coverage.

A weak shortwave approaches from the Dakotas creating the
potential for scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into
Sunday. Coverage looks to be pretty sparse during the day with the
best chances across far-western & northern Minnesota.
Overall,expecting most areas to stay dry though Saturday evening.
Coverage increases across the area overnight Saturday into Sunday
as a weak surface boundary drops south from northern Minnesota &
provides more widespread lift for thunderstorm development.
Instability is marginal & deep layer shear is next to nothing so
no severe weather is expected with the thunderstorms on Sunday.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 3:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Another, stronger, shortwave approaches the area on Monday &
lingers into Wednesday morning bringing a chance for more
widespread thunderstorms compared to this weekend. Widespread
cloud cover should limit our instability so severe weather doesn't
look like it'll be an issue but precipitable water values will increase to above
1.5", creating more of a heavy rain threat compared to the storms
this weekend. After this shortwave departs on Wednesday deep
ridging over the Southern Plains begins to build into our area
which will bring with it noticeably warmer & humid weather. Our
location at the northern periphery of this upper-level ridge is a
favorable spot for overnight thunderstorm complexes so additional
heavy rainfall is possible towards the end of the week. Forecast
rainfall from these systems over the next 7 days ranges from
around 1" across north-central Minnesota to potentially over 2" across
far-southern Minnesota. Rivers across southern Minnesota are already
experience flooding so the potential to exacerbate the impacts
from this flooding over the next week will have to be monitored
closely.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Winds will remain light this afternoon with high clouds and
patches of cumulus. Light winds overnight will allow for patchy
fog to develop. Any fog that does develop is expected to dissipate
by late morning with cumulus developing again by the afternoon.

Kmsp... patchy fog may develop mid-Saturday morning, but there
is not enough confidence at this time to include it in the msp
taf. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to continue for this
period.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Sat night...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chance rain and slgt chc -tsra. Wind east 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind southeast 10g15 kts.



&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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