Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmpx 210324 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1024 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
A potent weather system that was across the central rockies this
afternoon will brush the far southern part of Minnesota overnight,
with denser cloud cover, and a few sprinkles or flurries. Deeper
moisture remains well south of Minnesota and this trend of deeper
moistures sliding off to the south continues into Saturday.
Otherwise, just like today, temperatures will once again rise into
the 50s, or 60s Saturday afternoon, with near 50 where snow cover
is deepest along the Iowa border. In addition, the far south will
also have more cloud cover limiting full insolation of the sun.
Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
The wavy and split flow regime across North America will continue
through early next week. The main storm track will be in the
southern conus, with weak systems moving along the northern
plains, and Midwest. The weather system on Tuesday remains
questionable on the amount of energy associated with it. The ec
model has trended further to the south across Nebraska/Iowa
compared to the GFS, with the Gem between the two. An leaning
toward the ec do to the split flow regime and the amount of
moisture involved as the southern system will cutoff any Gulf
The mean flow pattern will begin to change the middle of next
week. This change is a trough, ridge, trough scenario from the
West Coast to the East Coast. The Main Ridge will be centered
across The Rockies with a deepening area of low pressure diving
southward across eastern Canada. This has been a similar pattern
for the upper Midwest over the past couple of months. This means
cooler than normal temperatures. However, this is dependent on
how deep the mean trough over eastern Canada becomes. Based on
the current model trends over the past few runs, it seems the
coldest air will reside over the Great Lakes, and northeastern
U.S. Warmer temperatures will reside over The Rockies, and spill
out into the plains. How far east the warmth spreads is based on
the mean trough in eastern Canada. I don't want to forecast
freezing temperatures once again, but above average, or even
average temperatures beyond the middle of next week, looks
questionable through the end of April. The best and warmest days
will occur this weekend, and Monday. Monday's high temperatures
could be well above normal, with 70s in the western part of
Minnesota a good bet.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
/Outlook for kmsp/
sun...VFR. South-southeast wind 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind light/variable.
Tue...MVFR/-ra possible. North wind 5-15 kts.