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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
619 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Short term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 255 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis
showed mid-level ridging along The Spine of the U.S. And Canadian
rockies with a weak downstream perturbation moving into the upper
Great Lakes. This upper-air disturbance is associated with a cold
front which moved through our area earlier this morning with
18z surface observations indicating modest cold advection occuring
in the wake of the frontal passage. A surface ridge axis currently
over the western Dakotas will build through the mid Missouri
Valley tonight, yielding favorable conditions for radiational

Further amplification of the aforementioned mid-level ridge is
forecast Monday into Monday night, before heights begin to lower
in response to the progression of an impulse from the central
rockies into mid Missouri Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. The
12z runs of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS suggest that a this disturbance will
be associated with a weak surface low which will develop from
western Kansas into eastern Nebraska, while an associated warm
front lifts north through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

Both forcing for ascent and moisture/instability will increase
ahead of the migratory mid-level trough and attendant surface low,
supporting increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Forecast soundings within the system warm sector
suggest that an overlap of modest instability and vertical shear
will exist to support a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon into
evening. Showers may linger across our western Iowa counties
Wednesday morning before shifting to the east of the area by

We will see high temperatures in lower to mid 60s on Monday with
strengthening low-level warm advection boosting readings into the
70-75 degree range by Tuesday afternoon within the warm sector over
southeast Nebraska. Highs will fall back into the 60s by Wednesday
with the passage of a cold front.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 255 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Mid-level heights will once again build along The Rockies and
adjacent High Plains during the middle to latter part of the
upcoming workweek. In the low levels, a Lee trough will become
established over the High Plains, supporting west-southwest
downslope winds. This pattern will yield above-normal
temperatures, especially on Thursday and Friday where highs could
reach the lower to mid 70s. A cold front is expected to move
through the area late Friday or Saturday with cooler temperatures
expected by next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 617 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the taf cycle. An area of high
pressure over the northern plains will continue to sag southeast
and skirt the taf sites through the overnight. Return flow will
bring southerly winds to the area by Monday late morning.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Mead
long term...Mead

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