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fxus63 koax 240849 
afdoax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
349 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 343 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Pocket of warm temperatures at 850mb remains over the region this
morning with strong southerly low-level jet. We should be able to
mix out fairly well after sunrise with highs approaching the mid
to upper 70s for most locations. A surface cold front over the
Dakotas continues to separate a very chilly airmass to our north
from the very mild airmass that remains over US. A weak but
progressive upper level trough will continue to move northeast
across the northern plains today which will allow the cold front
over the Dakotas to drop through the forecast area tonight. A few
of the cam's do develop some light quantitative precipitation forecast across northeast Nebraska
ahead of the boundary this morning, but point forecast soundings
indicate a very dry environment and thus may see a sprinkle or
two but no accumulating pcpn is anticipated.

A better chance of showers moves into the area early Tuesday morning
and becomes likely during the day Tuesday and Tuesday night as
the boundary stalls ahead of a strengthening upper shortwave. This
boundary begins to become more active and push southeast into
Kansas and Missouri with overrunning pattern developing north of
the front as the strengthening upper trough approaches the Central
Plains. Parts of northeast Nebraska could see a mix of rain and
snow for a time late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before
ending.

Temperatures will be sharply colder behind the front Tuesday with
blustery northwest winds gusting over 25 mph. High temperatures
across northeast Nebraska/west central Iowa will top out in the
upper 40s. Clouds and wind should inhibit any frost formation on
Wednesday morning. We will be mentioning patchy frost for
Thursday morning with pockets of freezing or slightly below
freezing temperatures across northeast Nebraska with both
diminishing winds and clouds.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 343 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Pattern is forecast to remain cool and wet through the weekend as a
series of upper troughs track across the Central Plains. Most
significant system will impact much of the region over the weekend
with widespread showers. There does remain the potential for snow
associated with this system but track and speed of the system are
likely to change over the next several model runs. Models do agree
on painting a fairly Stout stripe of quantitative precipitation forecast over the area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1128 PM CDT sun Apr 23 2017

Surface winds have slowly diminished since this evening owing to
the gradual decoupling of the boundary layer. At the same time, a
nocturnal low-level jet has strengthened with plan-view vwp data
indicating 50+ kt south-southwest winds in the 1000-1500 M above ground level
layer across the Central Plains. As a result, low level wind shear is expected to
persist overnight at all three taf sites.

By mid morning on Monday, a deepening boundary layer will once
again yield gusty south winds through the day. A cold front will
move into the area from the north and northwest Monday evening
with winds shifting to northwest at kofk during that time frame.
The front will eventually move through koma and klnk later Monday
night. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with persistent high-level
cloudiness.



&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

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