Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 162012
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
212 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Wet pattern we have seen the last few weeks keeps rolling on
this forecast period. The next seven days could prove to see
3-4 inches of rain northwest to around 8-9 across the southeast.
After a brief dry segment today, rain returns rapidly tonight
ahead of an approaching warm front and advancing surface low.
This surface low will move over the mid-state on Sunday. Very little
instability anticipated but shear does ramp up a bit of Sunday
afternoon. Could see a few storms southeast. A few showers likely
to linger on the plateau but a surface/low-level high moving in will
bring another dry period Monday/Monday night.
Tuesday through Thursday look excessively wet...with several inches
of rain likely for most locations...and especially the south.
Mid-Atlantic high holds strong as a surface low/frontal boundary moves
up the lower MS valley and struggles to move east as mid/level
flow remains nearly parallel. By late Thursday, surface low weakening
but just gets into north Georgia. Vertical motion becomes enhanced
during this period as bits of energy pass aloft. Moisture very
deep at this point and moisture advection strong...with axis near
the Tennessee/Alabama border vicinity. Tuesday night through Thursday,
rainfall amounts looking like ~3 inches north to ~5 south
alone...with heaviest band across north Alabama. Models have been
trending north so these amounts could increase.
After what looks like at least a break from heavier rain Thursday
night (scattered showers continue), blend of Euro/GFS looks like
Friday into the early part of the weekend yet another warm front,
with another moderate/heavy rain setup.
18z taf discussion.
Clouds are slower to break...thus ceilings are slower to raise.
Ckv will be the first to become VFR by 20z and bna and mqy will
follow by 01z. Csv will stay LIFR/IFR.
Rain showers will move into Tennessee after 00z...most likely closer 06z.
This will cause taf sites to be MVFR and then by 12z IFR/LIFR.
Winds will start northerly then become easterly and finally
southerly by 12z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 40 58 35 48 33 / 70 80 30 0 0
Clarksville 36 53 31 45 29 / 60 50 10 0 0
Crossville 38 55 36 47 30 / 70 90 70 10 10
Columbia 39 60 36 49 33 / 70 80 30 0 10
Lawrenceburg 40 61 37 49 33 / 80 80 40 0 10
Waverly 38 54 33 46 32 / 60 60 10 0 0