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fxus64 kohx 182105 
afdohx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
305 PM CST sun Nov 18 2018

Discussion...

Another warm day across middle Tennessee today, with most
locations reaching into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Expect an
upward trend in cloud cover to continue as a weak, mid-level
trough and modest moisture return work to develop rain showers
west of our area this evening. These will take their time
developing and meandering into the northwest after sunset,
eventually growing somewhat greater in coverage by sunrise Monday
morning. The rain jacket might come in handy through the day with
scattered light showers around. Most of the rain moves east of the
I-65 corridor shortly after the PM rush hour. Temperatures Monday
morning will be in the low to mid 40s and will not warm much from
there. Expect cooler air than we experienced this weekend, with
highs in the low to mid 50s...except in the northwest, where the
upper 40s are possible. A light shower may linger on the plateau
through early Tuesday morning, but do anticipate a dry day
everywhere on Tuesday.

Winds become northwest on Tuesday, ushering in high pressure and
cooler temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. The middle
of the week remains quiet, with sunny skies and afternoon highs
near average, in the low to upper 50s. Thanksgiving day, some
spots may even approach the 60 degree mark...great weather for a
pick-up football game.

Our next rain maker arrives just in time for black Friday, as a
shortwave and developing mid-level trough push through the area.
Timing has sped up on this system so will continue to make
refinements, but it appears rain starts moving into western
counties mid-morning Friday and increases in coverage around
noon. GFS/Euro suites are even hinting that rainfall rates may
pick up at times Friday afternoon. Rain moves east Saturday and
temperatures will remain about average for the remainder of the
week into next weekend.

&&

Aviation...
18z taf discussion.

VFR conditions for all sites this afternoon but that will
gradually change overnight and especially on Monday due to an
approaching upper level system and a weak cold front. The front
will move into the ckv area by late afternoon but stall and remain
there through Monday morning before finally pushing eastward
Monday afternoon...and after the valid period of this forecast
cycle. The increase in moisture will help clouds lower and thicken
overnight and especially Monday...when MVFR ceilings are expected
at all sites with the possible exception of csv. Some light
showers are possible later tonight and Monday at each Airport but
chances/coverage were seem enough to exclude from this set of
tafs.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 45 55 37 49 29 / 20 30 10 0 0
Clarksville 42 50 34 46 27 / 30 40 10 0 0
Crossville 43 56 36 45 27 / 20 40 40 10 0
Columbia 44 56 37 50 27 / 20 30 10 0 0
Lawrenceburg 43 57 37 50 27 / 20 30 20 0 0
Waverly 43 51 35 47 28 / 30 30 10 0 0

&&

Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

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